According to the latest data disclosed by the General Administration of Customs, China’s imported copper cathode market, while maintaining the 2025 baseline, is facing dual challenges: the continued rise in the share of EQ copper and whether global supply will continue to be diverted. China’s cumulative copper cathode imports in January-February 2026 totaled 356,900 mt, down 33.13% YoY.

According to data from China’s General Administration of Customs, China imported 316,000 tonnes of unwrought copper and copper products in February 2026. For the January–February period, cumulative imports of unwrought copper and copper products reached 700,000 tonnes, down 16.1% year-on-year, compared with 834,000 tonnes imported during the same period last year.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Copper prices retreated today, while orders increased compared to the previous trading day, indicating that the current price level has become more attractive to end-user procurement, which may provide some support to spot premiums/discounts. In terms of market structure, SHFE copper imports turned from loss to profit, prompting importers to actively lock in the SHFE/LME price ratio. As a result, a significant amount of imported copper is expected to enter the domestic market ahead of the holiday. Meanwhile, the Contango spread between nearby contracts narrowed slightly, encouraging suppliers to increase spot sales, adding to short-term spot supply pressure. If copper prices fall further to lower levels, more sustained restocking demand may be triggered, at which point spot discounts could gradually stabilize.

Recently, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (hereinafter referred to as "Freeport"), the largest copper producer in North America, stated that despite US President Trump's earlier claim that the copper tariffs he threatened to impose could support the US copper industry, the actual outcome might be counterproductive—tariffs could impact the economy, leading to a decline in copper demand, which would in turn be detrimental to the industry. Broad tariffs may instead dampen copper demand In recent times, US President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on copper to drive the recovery of domestic industries. In late February this year, Trump instructed the US Secretary of Commerce to launch an investigation into foreign copper imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and submit a report within 270 days. As the largest copper producer in North America, the imposition of tariffs on copper imports by the US should have been a positive development for Freeport, as the company could profit by selling copper at a premium. However, the company's CEO has warned that tariffs could also have a negative impact on the company. "If global economic growth is hindered, it could impact copper prices," Kathleen Quirk, CEO of Freeport, said in an interview. "Ironically, if we try to build up the US copper industry, slower GDP growth and inflation could put significant pressure on copper mines here." Quirk claimed that the US copper industry is currently in a turbulent period. As many industries and applications, including automotive, consumer electronics, and residential construction, are highly dependent on copper, copper tariffs could impose high costs on various sectors of the US economy. Copper tariffs have both positive and negative implications for the company Under Trump's tariff threats, US copper prices have been pushed higher than those in other markets. Currently, copper prices on the Comex are about 9.3% higher than those on the London Metal Exchange (LME), providing traders and producers with greater incentive to continue shifting supplies to the US before potential copper tariffs take effect. In April this year, the premium for copper on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) relative to the LME even reached 13% at one point. At that time, Freeport claimed that such a level was equivalent to a financial benefit of approximately $800 million per year from its copper sales. Freeport owns seven open-pit mines and one smelter in the US, which means it produces about 70% of the refined copper in the country. Quirk stated, "We do benefit from copper tariffs because they raise the price of our copper in the US domestic market... but if there are hefty tariffs and a trade war, we will be concerned about global demand for copper." Quark stated that she maintains a "neutral" stance on copper tariff policies, believing that copper import tariffs have both advantages and disadvantages for her. She noted that Freeport also has copper production sites in Indonesia, Spain, Peru, and Chile, and that tariff-driven trade wars could harm market demand for copper. Compared to tariffs, Freeport has called on the Trump administration to adopt other incentives to promote copper mining in the US, such as the tax credits included in the Inflation Reduction Act—a benefit that US lithium and nickel miners are already eligible for. "The cost structure in the US is higher than globally," Quark said. "Therefore, if you want to protect this industry, you need to consider how to incentivize it."

Analysts from Morgan Stanley stated that US President Trump's decision to double aluminum import tariffs to 50% could drive up aluminum prices and the costs for its users.

On Thursday, June 5, analysts at RBC Capital Markets stated that copper inflows into the US ahead of potential tariffs have supported the metal's price surge year to date. In a report sent to clients on Wednesday, the analysts noted that copper prices on the COMEX in New York have risen approximately 11% since early 2025, outperforming prices in other global markets. The brokerage firm highlighted that North American copper equities have also gained around 9% year to date, listing Capstone Mining Corp and HudBay Minerals as the sector's "top picks." The price rally was fueled by US President Trump's February announcement of an investigation into potential new tariffs on copper imports. Copper is considered critical for manufacturing everything from EVs to power grids. This investigation, coupled with investors capitalizing on rising premiums, triggered substantial copper inflows into the US. Government data showed March imports totaled over 123,000 mt, compared to 58,000 mt and 76,000 mt in February and January respectively. However, RBC strategists led by Sam Crittenden pointed to signs of weakening demand and supply, adding that should Trump opt against implementing metal tariffs, it could act as a "negative catalyst" for prices. Concurrently, RBC analysts identified near-term risks on the demand side for copper prices. They cited potential headwinds from the continuation of Trump's aggressive trade agenda and the seasonal construction slowdown during summer. "The trajectory in coming months will depend on global trade developments," the analysts wrote, "but any positive progress between China and the US would signal improved demand prospects through 2026." Xinhua News Agency reported from Beijing on June 5 that President Xi Jinping held a phone conversation with US President Trump that evening, where both leaders agreed their teams should continue implementing the Geneva consensus and promptly arrange new talks.