On August 7, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$173.91/dmt, down $14.54/dmt from the previous -$159.37/dmt. The payable indicator for domestic trade ore with 20% grade stood at 98.5%-99.5%. This week, spot market transactions were relatively active, but transaction prices declined further. In spot trading, a trader sold 30,000-50,000 mt of bundled ore for delivery from Q4 2026 to Q1 2027 to a smelter at -$170/dmt, QP: M+1/M+5; another trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore at -$183/dmt to a smelter, with shipment in August/September, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 40,000-60,000 mt of bundled ore for Q4 delivery at -$170/dmt to -$175/dmt to a smelter, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 20,000 mt of bundled ore at -$174/dmt to -$175/dmt and also sold 10,000 mt of high-arsenic ore at around -$100/dmt to smelters, with shipment in Q4, QP: M+1/M+4; a trader sold 70,000 mt of bundled ore to smelters at an index minus $18/dmt, with shipment in Q4; a trader sold 10,000 mt of bundled ore for August/September shipment at an index minus $22/dmt to $23/dmt to smelters; a trader offered 10,000 mt of South American clean ore at an index minus $20/dmt. In mine tenders, on the trader side, the winning bid price for 10,000 mt of BISHA ore, September-October shipment, was -$240/dmt to -$230/dmt; the winning bid result for Chuquicamata was below -$200/dmt. Overall, fixed-price transactions increased in the spot market this week. Due to weather-related shipment delays from some mines in Chile and Peru, there was restocking demand. Coupled with rigid restocking needs from new smelting capacity, spot TC continued to deteriorate, and smelter profit margins kept narrowing. However, smelters had limited acceptance of low-priced supply. Downward pressure remained but downside room was limited. According to foreign media reports, the DRC government signed a decree on June 29 to ban the export of copper and cobalt concentrates, effective immediately. Under "strategic" conditions, the Minister of Mines may still grant an export exemption for a period of one year. It should be noted that the DRC had already imposed strict controls on copper and cobalt concentrate exports. Under current policy, such exports are prohibited in principle, and enterprises must obtain government-approved export quotas or exemptions before shipping. Therefore, this policy is more about reaffirming and further tightening the existing management framework, rather than a sudden complete halt to copper concentrate exports. The additional impact of the ban on short-term global copper concentrate trade is likely to be relatively limited. What is more noteworthy is the policy signal it sends: As the strategic importance of critical minerals grows, resource-rich countries are using export restrictions, local processing mandates, and tax policies to capture a greater share of the industry chain and resource value added at home. Resource nationalism is increasingly disrupting global copper raw material flows and the supply landscape. On August 4, Codelco announced that it had temporarily suspended the development and construction activities of the Andes Norte project at its El Teniente mine, due to a potential new-type seismic risk in the deep areas of the project. This measure only applies to the Andes Norte project and does not mean a full stoppage at the El Teniente mine. Other production areas at the mine continue to operate, with seismic monitoring and related safety measures in place. According to the latest data from China Customs, China's copper concentrate imports in July 2026 totaled 2.379 million mt, up 1.88% MoM and down 6.93% YoY. From January to July 2026, cumulative copper concentrate imports amounted to 16.985 million mt, representing a cumulative YoY decline of 1.8%. On August 6, 2026, SMM recorded copper concentrate inventories at eleven ports of 692,000 mt in physical content, up 27,600 mt in physical content from July 31. The main increase came from Fangchenggang Port and Qinzhou Port, up MoM by 20,000 mt and 29,000 mt respectively; the main decrease was from Yantai Port and Qingdao Port, down MoM by 22,400 mt and 20,000 mt respectively.

China's sulphuric acid market remains weak, with price rises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia failing to mask the overall downtrend [SMM Sulphuric Acid Weekly Review]

On August 5, 2026, after communicating with major enterprises and filing with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Sulphuric Acid Association and the Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Association jointly decided: to ensure fair and relatively stable prices, the "latest copper concentrate TCs" in the original guidance price formula was revised to the "average of the past three months' copper concentrate TCs". After careful consideration, the copper concentrate TCs used in the calculation are based on the SMM Copper Concentrate Index. Calculated based on the new formula, the August smelting sulphuric acid guidance price is 1,555 yuan/mt. Historical guidance prices were May (1,406 yuan/mt), June (1,456 yuan/mt), and July (1,574 yuan/mt).

[SMM Analysis: High Imports Yet Lower TCs: Why China’s Copper Concentrate Market Is Getting Tighter amid Rising Purchases] In H1 2026, China’s copper concentrate imports stayed high but edged down YoY, with the pace of imports slowing noticeably in Q2 compared with Q1. At the same time, new and expanded smelting capacity continued to come onstream, and growth in copper concentrate demand outpaced the increase in import supply, driving spot TCs further down. On July 24, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) fell to -$154.76/dmt, further highlighting the contradiction of high imports coexisting with deeply negative TCs. Looking ahead to H2, stockpiling, feeding, and production ramp-up at three new smelting projects in China will add to rigid procurement demand. Higher production from Oyu Tolgoi, a seasonal recovery in South American mine output, and shipments of some stockpiled ore are expected to support a QoQ increase in China’s copper concentrate imports. However, the resumption of production at Grasberg will still take time, and local smelting capacity in Indonesia and Africa continues to absorb domestically produced concentrates, meaning that increases in overseas mine production may not proportionally translate into accessible supply for China. China’s copper concentrate imports are expected to remain high in H2 and rebound somewhat from H1, but the global supply-demand “hard deficit” for copper concentrates is unlikely to ease in the short term, and freely tradable, suitable supply will stay tight. In the absence of large-scale, sustained production cuts on the smelting side, spot TCs are more likely to show an L-shaped pattern of low-level operation with intermittent rebounds, and the configuration of rising imports alongside negative TCs will persist.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 210,900 mt in physical content of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap in June 2026.......

On July 17, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) came in at -$146.15/dmt, down $13.31/dmt from the previous reading of -$132.84/dmt. The payable indicator for 20% grade domestic trade ore was reported at 98%-99%. The copper concentrates spot market saw slightly more activity this week compared to the previous week. In spot transactions, a trader sold 10,000 mt of Las Bambas to a smelter at a deduction of $15-16/dmt from the average of the SMM and FM indices, for September loading; meanwhile, a trader sold 10,000 mt of Calcine at a premium of $5/dmt to the average of the SMM and FM indices; a trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore and 10,000 mt of Bisha at a fixed price of -$140/mt to a smelter, for August-September loading; a trader sold 20,000 mt of clean ore at a fixed price of -$155/mt, for Q4 loading; additionally, a trader sold 20,000-30,000 mt of bundled ore at a deduction of $20/dmt from the index, for loading from Q4 2026 to Q1 2027; a mine sold 10,000 mt of South American clean ore at a fixed price of -$160/dmt, for September loading, QP: M+3. On the tender front, the previous Jabal tender result was out, with a deal concluded on the trader side at a fixed price of -$250/dmt for 40,000-50,000 mt, for H2 shipment; the result of the Newmonet tender for 20,000-30,000 mt of Red Christ is still pending; in addition, SMM learned that a large mine previously tendered 100,000 mt in physical content of copper concentrates, with bids from traders coming in at over -$200/dmt for 2026 shipment, -$200/dmt for 2027 shipment, and over -$100/dmt for 2028 shipment. Overall, the copper concentrates spot market continued its trend of probing lower this week, with spot TCs declining further from the prior period. Smelters still had rigid restocking demand, but as TCs continued to drop, copper smelting profits were further squeezed, making smelters more cautious about accepting low-priced cargoes and tilting purchases more toward rigid restocking. Meanwhile, mine tenders and trader offers kept edging lower, and the low-priced spot deals further shook smelters' psychological price levels, widening the divergence between buyers and sellers. In the short term, spot copper concentrate TCs still face downward pressure, with the market closely watching smelters' acceptance of deeply negative cargoes. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China's copper concentrate imports in June 2026 were 2.335 million mt, down 1.10% MoM and edged up 0.03% YoY. From January to June 2026, cumulative imports of copper concentrates reached 14.609 million mt, edging down 0.9% YoY. Chile is currently being affected by a strong winter frontal system, with the main impact expected to be concentrated from July 16 to 17 and likely to persist through July 20–21. This weather event shows notable regional differences: moderate to heavy snowfall and strong winds are forecast for the high-altitude and mountainous areas of northern mining regions such as Antofagasta and Atacama, while central to southern Chile faces persistent heavy rainfall, raising the risk of localized flooding, landslides, and mudslides. The Chilean government has activated a preventive emergency response, and mining authorities have been communicating contingency plans with major mining enterprises. According to SMM’s communications with local industry participants, heavy snowfall and rainfall could cause short-term disruptions to road transport and port loading at some mine sites, with a risk of delays in the shipment pace of copper concentrates and copper cathode. The actual impact will depend on the duration of the weather and operating conditions at the major mines. On July 16, BHP released its production report, showing that group copper production in the fourth fiscal quarter ended June 30 was 491,900 mt, down 5% YoY and below the 516,200 mt recorded a year earlier, driven by lower output at the Escondida and Pampa Norte mines. For fiscal 2026, total group copper production was 1.95 million mt, down 3% YoY, a pullback from the 2.02 million mt in fiscal 2025 but the second consecutive year close to 2 million mt. Among them, Escondida—the world’s largest copper ore mine—produced 1.2612 million mt of copper on a 100% basis for the full year, down 3% YoY, mainly due to a decline in head grade at the beneficiation plant from 1.02% a year earlier to 0.90%. On July 17, SMM data on copper concentrates inventory at eleven ports showed 648,200 mt in physical content, down 42,000 mt from July 10. The main declines came from Fangchenggang Port and Qinzhou Port, down 30,000 mt and 21,000 mt WoW, respectively.