India has asked the European Union to exempt it from upcoming restrictions on scrap metal exports, warning that the measures could disrupt supplies of recycled raw materials. Industry groups said the new EU rules may intensify global competition for aluminium and copper scrap while increasing production costs for downstream manufacturers.

SMM Morning Briefing: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,341/mt. In early trading, it drifted higher to touch a high of $13,379/mt. Then the center of copper prices drifted lower to touch a low of $13,252.5/mt. Afterwards, it drifted higher again and eventually closed at $13,344.5/mt, up 0.17%. Trading volume reached 14,200 lots, and open interest stood at 246,000 lots, down 256 lots from the previous trading day, which reflected bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,710 yuan/mt. In early trading, it quickly rose to a high of 102,850 yuan/mt. Then the price center drifted lower to touch a low of 102,100 yuan/mt. Afterwards, it drifted higher and finally ended at 102,340 yuan/mt, down 0.79%. Trading volume was 31,000 lots, and open interest stood at 152,000 lots, down 1,906 lots from the previous trading day, which reflected bulls reducing positions.

SMM Analysis | June 30 marks a critical milestone in the U.S. Section 232 copper investigation. Will refined copper tariffs proceed as expected? Whether the outcome is a broad tariff, targeted measures, or a delay and exemption, the decision could reshape the COMEX–LME arbitrage, U.S. physical premiums, global copper trade flows, and regional supply dynamics.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $13,269.5/mt. It dipped to a low of $13,250/mt during wild swings in early trading, then the center of copper prices drifted higher and rose to $13,378/mt near the session's end, finally closing at $13,322/mt, up 0.05%. Trading volume reached 19,100 lots, and open interest stood at 247,000 lots, down 1,285 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bear position reduction. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,240 yuan/mt, immediately dipped to 102,020 yuan/mt in early trading, then the center of copper prices moved steadily upward and reached a high of 102,930 yuan/mt near the session's end, finally closing at 102,740 yuan/mt, up 1.16%. Trading volume reached 42,000 lots, and open interest stood at 156,000 lots, down 3,193 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bear position reduction.

This week (6/22–6/25), the secondary copper rod and copper scrap markets were locked in a deep stalemate, marked by the supply side holding prices firm and holding back from selling, the demand side waiting for further price declines and refraining from purchasing, and persistently sluggish transactions, as copper prices continued to fall and approached the psychological threshold of 100,000 yuan/mt

This week, LME copper prices retreated from highs, drifting lower after hitting a high at Monday’s open. Mid-week, prices briefly fell to a low of $12,988/mt, with a weekly decline of about 3.3%. The pullback in copper prices led to a slight spike in payable indicators, pushing up the overall discount range by about 0.2%. By specific grade, bare bright copper saw its main transaction coefficient remain high at 98.5%–99%, while No.1 copper semis’ transaction range was concentrated at 97%–98%. In contrast, quotes for No.2 copper semis showed clear divergence: with precious metal prices staying high, smelters’ acceptance of No.2 copper semis with high gold and silver content rose significantly, with quotes reaching 97.5%–98%, even exceeding those for No.1 copper semis in a price inversion. Such high-gold-and-silver-content copper semis mainly originate from the Americas, so quotes for Americas-origin No.2 copper semis were notably higher than from other regions. Meanwhile, No.2 copper semis from Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, generally low in gold and silver content, saw relatively pressured quotes, with transaction ranges mostly concentrated at 95%–96%. However, constrained by the current overall supply-demand weakness, actual market transactions this week were relatively sluggish. On one hand, payable indicators were already at historical highs, limiting room for further upside. On the other, although copper prices pulled back and enterprises’ tolerance for high prices gradually improved, the absolutely elevated copper prices still significantly suppressed purchasing sentiment. In addition, macro and seasonal factors further dragged on major Asian consumer markets: Japan, one of the key consumers, was about to face its annual settlement window on June 30, and some enterprises had already stopped purchasing in advance. At the same time, Japanese scrapyards were engaged in Q3 quarterly supply negotiations with downstream consumers, causing them to generally slow down their current purchasing pace. Compounding this, the yen and won exchange rates against the US dollar remained at low levels, driving up local enterprises’ ex-China procurement costs and prompting traders in both regions to adopt a generally cautious stance toward overseas purchases. Under the combined weight of falling copper prices and tight overall market supply, ex-China scrapyards currently hold a strong sentiment of holding back from selling, and the near-term market stalemate is expected to continue into next week.