SMM News, March 24: Today, in Guangdong, spot prices for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were reported at a premium of 70 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; a discount of 30 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday; and a discount of 90 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 94,030 yuan/mt, up 1,045 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 93,920 yuan/mt, up 1,055 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory declined for six consecutive days, mainly due to limited arrivals and higher shipments. Although inventory continued to fall, downstream users showed weak restocking interest as copper prices surged sharply. Suppliers had to keep lowering spot premiums to conclude deals. Overall, trading activity in the market was noticeably weaker today than yesterday. Today, the purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.48, down 0.15 from the previous trading day, and the shipment sentiment was 3.31, down 0.11 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, after the sharp rebound in copper prices, downstream buying sentiment weakened, and spot premiums moved lower.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,816/mt. After dipping to $11,798/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,395/mt, then hovered at highs, and finally closed at $12,221/mt, up 3.27%. Trading volume reached 52,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots, down 944 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,010 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center moved higher to a high of 95,900 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs. Near the close, it dipped to 94,530 yuan/mt and finally closed at 93,840 yuan/mt, up 2.12%. Trading volume reached 120,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 6,741 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions throughout the day.

In light of the recent sharp decline in copper prices, SMM reports a noticeable deceleration in the global copper scrap trading trend. The rapid price correction has widened the bid-ask spread significantly, creating a sharp divergence in pricing expectations between market participants. Taking Bare Bright Copper as an example, overseas holders, seeking to hedge against the drop in absolute prices, have hiked their pricing coefficients to 99-99.5% of LME, a 1-percentage-point jump from 98-98.5% last week. Conversely, Chinese importers, constrained by domestic margin pressures, remain firm at the previous 98.5% coefficient. This "pricing mismatch" has hindered any consensus on coefficients, resulting in stagnant transaction activity across the board.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Copper prices rose from yesterday, but both buying and selling sentiment pulled back intraday, indicating that downstream acceptance of current price levels remained limited. In terms of market structure, under the current price spread between futures contracts structure, suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, with some offloading cargo, driving overall spot discounts down rapidly, while downstream willingness to make counteroffers was relatively evident. Entering the second trading session, after premiums were cut further, market transactions improved somewhat, but downstream procurement remained generally cautious, mainly focused on restocking on dips, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between suppliers actively selling and downstream buyers purchasing cautiously, Shanghai spot copper discounts were expected to remain under pressure tomorrow.

March 24, 2026: The average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $52/mt (price range: $44-60/mt); the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $53/mt (price range: $45-61/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $30/mt (price range: $25-35/mt), with quotations referring to cargoes scheduled to arrive from late March to mid-April. Intraday offers showed faint signs of continuing to rise, but transactions delivered mediocre performance. It was heard that a small volume of pyrometallurgy B/L arriving in late March was offered at $50-60/mt, QP April; EQ B/L arriving in late March and early April was offered at $35, while EQ B/L arriving in mid-to-late April was offered at $35/mt and traded at $30/mt, with QP available in both April and May. General ER copper warrants for delivery within the week were offered at $50/mt, QP April.

SMM News, March 24: Aluminum ingot: On March 24, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was reported at 23,440, up 30, at a discount of 170 against the current-month contract, narrowing by 5 (unit: yuan/mt) The SHFE aluminum 04 contract generally stabilized today. Supported by aluminum prices halting their decline and edging up slightly, the South China spot market stabilized and improved, and buyers generally showed good purchasing sentiment today. Spot prices were significantly below the monthly average price, and sellers firmly held prices firm. However, amid weekend inventory buildup and ample circulating cargo, overall support for firm prices was clearly constrained under high inventory pressure. Mainstream transaction prices in the market today were concentrated at premiums of -175 yuan/mt to -165 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract.