Data released by the Kazakhstan Bureau of Statistics showed that Kazakhstan's copper cathode production in January-February 2026 fell 9.1% YoY.Copper Cathode: February 2026 production was 35,625 mt, down 7.8% MoM; total production in January-February was 74,266 mt, down 9.1% YoY.

HBIS Resources (000923) announced on March 17 that the Limpopo Province of South Africa, where its subsidiary Palabora Copper (Pty) Ltd. is located, and the neighboring Mpumalanga Province had been hit by the most severe flooding disaster since 2000. As runoff from the open pit and surrounding catchment areas surged into the company’s mine workings, some tunnels in Phase I and Phase II of the copper project were flooded, causing some critical facilities to be submerged (with no casualties). As the operating area of Copper Phase II is located at a deeper level, dewatering has progressed relatively slowly, and dewatering operations are still underway, with completion expected in early April.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 88,450 yuan/mt. After the opening, it hovered at highs and then climbed to 88,940 yuan/mt, before its center moved all the way downward and fell to 87,730 yuan/mt near the close. It finally settled at 87,780 yuan/mt, down 0.37%. Open interest stood at 5,599 lots, down 113 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume was 3,458 lots, down 1,917 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, Israel launched large-scale attacks in Tehran, Iran and Beirut, Lebanon, while a tanker anchored in the Gulf of Oman was hit by an unidentified projectile. Oil prices rose, intensifying market concerns over US inflation and weighing on copper prices. Fundamentally, arrivals of both imported and domestic cargoes remained stable, and overall supply was ample. Demand side, the slight increase in copper prices somewhat suppressed downstream purchase willingness, with buying maintained at just-in-time procurement levels. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 99,340 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract price of 87,780 yuan/mt, its tax-inclusive price was 99,191 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was 149 yuan/mt, and the spread remained in a contango structure, narrowing from the previous day.

The construction and trial operation of the second phase of the Mirador Copper Mine project under Tongling Nonferrous Metals have been completed, and the signing of its Mining Contract is currently being advanced.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Intraday trading in the spot market was subdued, while suppliers still showed willingness to hold prices firm. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment remained relatively strong, and spot premiums edged down slightly from yesterday. As the contango price spread between nearby contracts narrowed, suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses weakened somewhat, putting pressure on spot premiums. On the demand side, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement, and transactions remained sluggish even after suppliers slightly lowered their quotations, as current copper prices had limited appeal to end-users. On the supply side, domestic copper and imported cargoes previously locked in at fixed prices continued to arrive, while social inventory remained at a high level. The outflow of warrants over the next two days may further weigh on spot premiums. Meanwhile, signs that the import window may still open persisted, and expectations for subsequent inflows of ex-China cargoes strengthened, further increasing supply-side pressure. Overall, amid a pattern of weak supply and demand, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain under pressure tomorrow, with a possibility of a slight widening.

March 16, 2026: The average warrant price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day, closed at $47/mt (price range $42-52/mt); the average B/L price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day, closed at $46/mt (price range $41-51/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose by $4/mt from the previous trading day, closed at $25/mt (price range $19-31/mt), with quotations referencing cargoes arriving from late March to mid-April. During the day, a large number of buyers sought EQ and OG copper B/L cargoes arriving in the near term. It was heard that a small volume of pyrometallurgy B/L cargoes arriving in late March was offered at $50-60/mt, QP April; EQ B/L offers for arrivals in late March and early April were quoted at $35/mt, and EQ B/L for arrivals in mid-to-late April was quoted at $35/mt, QP May. General ER copper warrants for delivery within the week were quoted at $50/mt, QP April.