[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: US Dollar Fluctuations Drive Futures Fluctuations, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Consolidates in the Morning]

(Kitco News) - Gold's recent correction has likely run its course as the key macro headwinds that pressured the precious metal are beginning to fade, according to one Canadian research firm, which argues that real interest rates have likely peaked and the U.S. dollar will eventually turn from a headwind into a tailwind for bullion. After establishing a neutral position in Spring, Commodity analysts at BCA Research now see attractive value and are recommending investors start accumulating gold with a stop-loss at $3,900 an ounce. "The worst of real rates' headwind to gold is likely behind us," the firm said in its latest report, adding that while geopolitical risks tied to the Middle East could still create short-term volatility, its base case is for U.S. real rates to remain broadly stable over the coming months, helping gold establish a bottom. Speaking with Kitco News, Roukaya Ibrahim, chief commodities strategist at BCA Research, said investors should focus less on inflation and more on the outlook for real yields. "The recommendation to buy now basically embeds that real rates and the U.S. dollar are not going to rise further from here, and that headwind is already gone," she said, noting that gold has held the $4,000-an-ounce level despite recent macro headwinds. BCA's report argues that gold has returned to trading primarily as a macro asset after several years during which central bank buying overwhelmed traditional market drivers. The research firm believes real rates and the U.S. dollar have once again become the dominant forces determining bullion prices, while central bank purchases now provide a floor under the market rather than acting as the primary catalyst for further gains. Although markets have priced in additional Federal Reserve tightening, Ibrahim said she sees little risk that policymakers become more hawkish than current expectations. "Even if the Fed does hike, I don't see them hiking by more than what's already priced in," she said. "The odds of that are quite low" unless oil prices experience a significant and sustained surge that pushes inflation expectations materially higher. That view underpins BCA's bullish stance on gold . Ibrahim said gold does not require imminent rate cuts to rally—only confirmation that the peak in real yields is already behind the market. "The headwind from opportunity costs is going to ease, and it's going to turn into a tailwind," she said. "Not because the U.S. economy is going to crack, but because the tightening is already priced in." BCA also pushes back against the common perception that gold is primarily an inflation hedge. Instead, the firm argues that inflation only benefits bullion when it undermines confidence in the Federal Reserve and suppresses real yields. " Gold 's ability to act as an inflation hedge is overstated. Real rates, rather than inflation, determine gold's performance," the report said. As long as inflation expectations remain well anchored and the Fed maintains credibility, higher inflation initially weighs on gold by pushing real yields higher. Even if another oil-driven inflation shock emerges, Ibrahim expects any rise in real rates to prove temporary. "If we do get a price spike and inflation spike, then probably very quickly the attention is going to shift from it being an inflation story to being a growth story," she said. That transition would eventually cap the Fed's hawkishness and establish "a bottom for gold prices." The firm also sees longer-term support coming from structural forces, including reserve diversification away from the U.S. dollar and persistent central bank buying. While BCA believes the pace of official-sector purchases has likely peaked, it argues that ongoing buying continues to justify elevated gold prices and should prevent a return to 2022 price levels absent a shift by central banks to become net sellers. Over the longer term, BCA also expects the greenback to weaken as structural pressures build. "The greenback will shift from being a headwind to a tailwind to the yellow metal," the report concluded. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-08-06/now-time-buy-gold-bca-sees-bullish-opportunity-real-yields-peak

06 Aug 2026 Thought of the day Gold climbed above USD 4,250/oz for the first time since June, breaking above its recent trading range of between USD 4,000/oz and USD 4,100/oz. Reported Chinese institutional buying and inflows into exchange-trade funds (ETFs) have supported the latest price movement, while recent joint government efforts by the US and Japan to stabilize the yen may also have helped reduce the risk of a sell-off in US Treasuries. Near-term risks remain, especially if US data stay firm, oil prices keep inflation concerns alive, or markets continue to price in a more hawkish Federal Reserve rate path. But while the immediate backdrop may remain volatile, the medium- to long-term case for gold still looks supported by several durable drivers. We expect gold prices to rise toward USD 5,000/oz in the first half of 2027. Lower real rates should eventually revive investment demand. Gold does not pay income, so higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding it. But we expect inflation to gradually moderate, allowing the Fed to hold interest rates steady this year before resuming easing in 2027. This should create a more favorable backdrop for gold, as a shift toward lower policy-rate expectations would likely reduce real yields, weigh on the US dollar, and help boost investment demand for gold. A softer dollar and diversification flows remain powerful medium-term supports. The US dollar may stay resilient in the near term, but structural challenges including large US fiscal and external deficits and already elevated investor allocations to US dollar assets mean there is scope for renewed weakness. A weaker dollar has historically been a powerful tailwind for gold, while a renewed focus on diversification away from the US dollar should benefit the precious metal. Central bank buying provides a durable floor for the market. Central bank demand has remained an important pillar of support, even when private investment demand has been lackluster. We expect annual central bank purchases to remain elevated, supported by a long-term desire to reduce exposure to USD assets. Following a strong second quarter, when central banks bought 289 metric tons of gold, we continue to estimate full-year purchases in the 750-1,000 metric ton range this year. While these flows may not be enough to drive prices sharply higher on their own, they can help stabilize the market and offset weaker areas such as jewelry demand. So, we think investors should separate near-term trading risk from the longer-term investment case. In fact, periods of weakness toward USD 4,000/oz or below may ultimately prove to be opportunities to build strategic exposure. For investors with an affinity for real assets, we continue to view a mid-single-digit gold allocation as appropriate within a well diversified portfolio. Investors can also consider a broad commodities exposure for better portfolio diversification. Source: https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealthmanagement/insights/chief-investment-office/house-view/daily/2026/latest-06082026.html

SMM August 7 News: Metal Markets: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market broadly rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.1%. SHFE aluminum gained 0.38%. SHFE lead edged up 0.1%. SHFE zinc rose 1.11%, while SHFE tin fell 0.98%. SHFE nickel dropped 1.22%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract edged up 0.09%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract fell 0.52%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Stainless steel edged up, iron ore gained 0.35%, and rebar rose 0.17%. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) increased 0.59%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract rose 1.54%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.48%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper shot up to an intraday high of $14,369.5/mt, a level not seen since January 29, before eventually closing with a 0.4% decline. LME aluminum gained 0.65%. LME lead fell 0.29%. LME zinc rose 0.64%. LME tin dropped 1.43%. LME nickel fell 2.45%. Overnight Precious Metals : COMEX gold fell 0.15%, and COMEX silver dropped 0.81%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures contract fell 0.01%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract declined 0.93%. Closing prices as of 7:03 AM, August 7: Macro Front Domestic (China) News: [Guangdong: Promote the Integration of Futures and Spot Markets for Key Commodities like Iron Ore, Crude Oil, and Rubber to Enhance Pricing Influence on Bulk Commodities] The "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the China (Guangdong) Pilot Free Trade Zone (Draft for Comments)" was released for public comment. It mentioned plans to expand financial opening-up in an orderly manner. International financial institutions will be encouraged to set up headquarters in the zone, promoting the development of cross-border finance, innovative finance, venture capital and investment, wealth management, futures trading, asset management, specialty finance, and offshore services. The Plan aims to accelerate the implementation of projects like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area International Commercial Bank and the GBA Insurance Service Center. It supports expanding the scale of commodity trading and promoting the integration of futures and spot markets for key commodities like iron ore, crude oil, and rubber to enhance their pricing influence. The Plan will promote the quality improvement and upgrade of fintech regulatory pilots and expand digital yuan application scenarios. It supports pilot programs for cross-border financial innovations such as offshore finance and green finance, and will promote the expansion of pilot programs like cross-border Wealth Management Connect and digital yuan cross-border payments. Institutions within the zone will be supported in developing specialty products like cross-border supply chain finance and intellectual property-pledged financing, and market entities will be guided to develop composite financial products. Pilots for cross-border credit asset transfers and multi-currency integrated accounts will be deepened to promote wider mutual recognition and connectivity of cross-border financial products. (Guangdong Department of Commerce) [CAAM: June Auto Commodity Import and Export Value Hits $31.82 Billion, Up 35.5% YoY] According to data from the General Administration of Customs compiled by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the total import and export value of auto commodities in June 2026 was $31.82 billion, up 8.0% MoM and up 35.5% YoY. The import value was $3.39 billion, down 6.1% MoM and down 18.7% YoY; the export value was $28.43 billion, up 10.0% MoM and up 47.2% YoY. From January to June 2026, the cumulative import and export value of national auto commodities totaled $164.74 billion, up 25.5% YoY. The import value was $19.25 billion, down 11.8% YoY; the export value was $145.49 billion, up 33.0% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.26% to 99.95. Escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on both US stocks and bonds, causing them to fall. Oil prices jumped, reigniting inflation concerns ahead of the key US employment report. Market focus now turns to Friday's US employment report for new clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Stronger-than-expected jobs data could reinforce the case for higher-for-longer interest rates, while any escalation of tensions in the Middle East could push up energy prices and intensify market fluctuations. UBS analyst Ulrike Hoffmann noted: "Short-term risks remain, especially if US data remains firm, oil prices continue to fuel inflation concerns, or the market continues pricing in a more hawkish Fed rate path." Interactive Brokers Senior Economist José Torres stated: "Wall Street reversed again from recent strong gains as the lack of clarity concerning the Strait of Hormuz led investors to question whether the robust rally early this week was justified." (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 45%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 55%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through October is 31%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 51.9%, and a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 17.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a report by the UK's Financial Times, even after a decision not to reveal too many details on rate strategy triggered a sharp sell-off in government bonds, Fed Chairman Warsh is sticking with his usual concise communication style. People close to Warsh say he acknowledges making some mistakes during his first 10 weeks at the helm of the world's most important central bank, including failing to reinforce his key message on price stability and creating confusion over whether his long-term plan to reform the Fed could influence near-term policy decisions. However, they insisted those mistakes were not enough to derail Warsh's reform plans for the Fed. People familiar with the matter also revealed that Warsh is prepared to raise interest rates at the September meeting if upcoming inflation data proves strong and market expectations for higher borrowing costs rise accordingly. The sources added that while the Fed Chairman raised the possibility of shrinking the central bank's $6.7 trillion balance sheet to tighten monetary policy, interest rates remain the primary tool for now and will be used at upcoming meetings if necessary. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro Events: Data releases today include France's Q2 ILO unemployment rate, Germany's June seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM, Germany's June seasonally adjusted trade balance, the UK's July Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM, France's June trade balance, Switzerland's July consumer confidence index, Canada's July employment change, the US July unemployment rate, US July seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US July average hourly earnings YoY, US July average hourly earnings MoM, US July New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, China's July US dollar-denominated trade balance, China's July foreign exchange reserves, and China's July trade balance data. Watches: 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks on the US economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers remarks. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with US oil gaining 4% and Brent oil surging 4.57%. Geopolitical risks rekindled, causing oil prices to spike sharply. Wall Street CN mentioned that the new navigation agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, proposed to be signed by Iran and Oman, revealed significant details again, indicating Iran's bid to control the strait. Furthermore, Iran has taken action, striking "enemy targets" near the strait. Iran's Fars News Agency (FARS) reported on Thursday, August 6, local time, that Iran's parliament is reviewing this agreement. Under the agreement, US and Israeli vessels will be barred from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and nations that have "caused harm to Iran" will also be denied passage permits. Following this news, concerns over risks to global energy transportation rapidly intensified in the market. (Wall Street CN) Saudi Arabia cut its main crude oil price for Asia as negotiations proceed on an agreement aimed at easing shipping pressure in the Strait of Hormuz. The price cut came despite Houthi threats jeopardizing the alternative eastbound crude route via the Red Sea. According to a price list, state oil company Saudi Aramco reduced the price of its Arab Light crude for delivery to Asian clients next month by $0.50 per barrel, setting it at a $2/bbl discount to the regional benchmark. A prior survey showed traders expected Saudi Aramco to keep its flagship crude price unchanged. Global benchmark Brent crude prices fell sharply this week and are now trading near $80/bbl. (Jin10 Data APP) Over the past two months, the UAE has transported more crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz than any other producer, providing a critical supply buffer to a global market suffering from a historic energy crisis. According to energy data firm Kpler, a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) loaded with Emirati cargo appeared in the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday after turning off its Automatic Identification System (AIS) signal at the end of July. The tanker carries crude from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. This is just one of dozens of similar tankers that have departed the Persian Gulf since the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) began implementing a new sales strategy. According to trading sources familiar with the matter, since early June, ADNOC has sold over 130 million barrels of crude oil through seven unprecedented tenders. (Jin10 Data APP)

To adapt to the reshaping of global trade patterns and the commodity supercycle driven by new quality productive forces, accelerate the implementation of Shanghai’s deployment for building a commodity resource allocation hub in the opening year of the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan, and deepen the promotion of the Action Plan for Strengthening Futures-Spot Linkages to Enhance the Tier of Nonferrous Metal Commodities (18 Measures), elevating the “Shanghai price” from a regional metric to a global benchmark, SMM will host the “Shanghai Metals Expo 2026” (abbreviated as “SME”) from November 16 to 19, 2026. Against this backdrop, Shanghai Metals Expo 2026, scheduled for November 16-19, will be grandly convened in Shanghai . SMM , in partnership with Shanghai Wurui Metals Group Co., Ltd. , cordially invites you to attend . Themed “Reshaping Cycles, Pricing the Future,” this edition of SME Shanghai Metals Expo will focus on core variables such as shifts in global macro policies, the restructuring of geopolitical supply chains, and the metal supercycle. It strives to create an annual gathering that serves as an “information hub, pricing benchmark, trading platform, and industry network” for metals and related sectors, empowering the industry to move from passively enduring cycles to actively participating in pricing. Click the to sign up now. We look forward to meeting you at the conference. Shanghai Wurui Metals Group Co., Ltd., headquartered at the Shanghai Nonferrous Metal Trading Center, specializes in nonferrous metal trading and supply chain services. As one of China’s early practitioners of the futures-spot integration model, it has grown into a large-scale enterprise with a scale approaching RMB100 billion. The company primarily deals in core nonferrous metal varieties such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, silicon metal, and rare and precious metals, with its copper and aluminum business scales consistently ranking among the industry’s top. Its annual supply volume to end-user factories exceeds 4 million mt, and it has been recognized by the Shanghai Municipal Government as a trade-oriented headquarters and a dual-headquarters enterprise under the headquarters economy for the private sector. Its business covers Shanghai, Taicang, Changsha, Foshan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai, Tanzania, and other locations, and it possesses the industry’s largest spot trading and investment research team, continuously maintaining a leading position. Grounded in trade with client service at its core, the company drives the development of the commodity industry and aims to become a leading nonferrous metal commodity industry service provider in China. It strives to ensure Chinese enterprises do not suffer losses amid severe commodity fluctuations, practices the concept of price management for end-user enterprises, and is committed to becoming a frontrunner among China’s commodity service providers. Address: Unit A, 4th Floor, No. 2550 North Zhongshan Road, Putuo District, Shanghai Tel: 021-3225 8990 Contact: Wang Jiale SMM Conference Contact Ma Yao 18321395342 mayao@smm.cn

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the July China Commodity Price Index on the 5th. Looking at the index's performance, the commodity price index pulled back slightly MoM, maintained a relatively large YoY increase, and the market operation foundation remained generally solid. The China Commodity Price Index for July stood at 128.6 points, pulling back 1.3% MoM but up 15.5% YoY. Among the 50 key commodities monitored by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, prices of 14 commodities rose MoM in July. Among them, coke (7.1% MoM), Pr-Nd oxide (6.4% MoM), and corrugated paper (5.6% MoM) led the gains.