Jun 05, 2026 - 12:31 AM Rising inflation pressures due to the ongoing war in Iran mean investors will have to wait a little longer for gold to break out of its current consolidation phase, according to Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank. Fritsch noted that gold’s price action since the war started has been counterintuitive to fundamental market beliefs. The precious metal, traditionally seen as an inflation hedge, has fallen even as the global energy crisis pushes consumer prices higher. At the same time, despite the chaos in the Middle East, gold has been unable to attract a safe-haven bid. However, Fritsch explained that the gold market is currently struggling as market expectations around U.S. monetary policy have shifted dramatically since the Iran conflict began. “Before the start of the Iran war, market participants had expected the Fed to cut interest rates by around 50 basis points this year. Since the start of the war and the resulting rise in oil prices, there has been a noticeable shift in interest rate expectations. Fed Funds futures currently imply a US key interest rate of around 3.8% at the end of the year. With an effective Fed rate of just over 3.6%, the market therefore expects the Fed to raise interest rates later this year. A 25-basis-point rate hike is fully priced in by spring 2027,” he said. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see more than a 50% chance of a rate hike in December. The threat of rising interest rates is increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-yielding asset. In this environment, Commerzbank has adjusted its year-end price target. The German bank sees gold prices ending the year at around $4,800 an ounce, down from its initial target of $5,000. “This implies some upside potential for the coming months, as our new base-case scenario envisages a two-month transition period, followed by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a decline in Brent oil prices, which should reverse the current expectations of interest rate hikes,” Fritsch said. The updated outlook comes as gold prices continue to struggle below $4,500 an ounce. Spot gold was last trading at $4,483.95 an ounce, up 1.11% on the day. However, Commerzbank’s updated target suggests the market could see an 8% rally from current prices by year-end. Fritsch said there is still potential for gold, as Commerzbank does not expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates this year. The bank’s economists forecast that rates will remain unchanged and that the next move is still likely to be a cut. However, Fritsch said the next rate cut is not expected until at least the second quarter of 2027. “We therefore maintain our price forecast of USD 5,200 per troy ounce for the end of 2027,” he said. “The structural factors supporting gold remain entirely intact. These include eroding confidence in the US dollar as a reserve currency, which is likely to lead to further gold purchases by central banks. Investor interest in gold is also likely to remain high. This is supported by the already high and rapidly rising levels of government debt, which are leading to monetary policy that is too loose when measured against inflation.” Along with its revised gold forecast, Fritsch has also downgraded his silver outlook. Commerzbank expects silver prices to end the year at around $80 an ounce. “In addition to the lowered gold price forecast, weaker industrial demand for silver also points to a slightly lower silver price. According to the latest assessment by the Silver Institute, industrial demand is set to decline for the second consecutive year, falling to a four-year low. Nevertheless, the silver market remains tight, which is why we expect the silver price to rise in the coming year,” he said. Commerzbank projects silver prices to end 2027 at around $90 an ounce, down from its previous target of $95 an ounce. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-04/commerzbank-not-giving-metals-sees-4800oz-gold-80oz-silver-year-end

June 5, 2026 Although the war in Iran, a simmering energy crisis, and rising inflation should actually provide the perfect environment for safe-haven assets, gold is currently treading water below the $4,500 per troy ounce mark. For commodity investors, this behavior seems like a paradox. But according to a recent analysis by Commerzbank, there is a clear reason for this: a shift in U.S. interest rate expectations. For forward-thinking investors, this means: The next upward surge in gold prices hasn’t been canceled—it’s merely being postponed. The interest rate shock: Markets are pricing in surprise hikes The explanation for the current price slowdown lies in the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). Even before the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, the market had anticipated interest rate cuts of around 50 basis points this year. However, the war-driven rise in oil prices has shattered these expectations. A look at Fed funds futures reveals the turnaround: The market now signals a U.S. benchmark interest rate of about 3.8 percent by year-end. Since the effective Fed rate currently stands at just over 3.6 percent, market participants are effectively pricing in an imminent rate hike. The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of a rate hike in December at over 50 percent. By spring 2027 at the latest, the market has fully priced in a 25-basis-point increase. These higher opportunity costs are weighing heavily on the gold price in the short term. The Commerzbank Scenario: 8 Percent Upside Potential by Year-End Despite these headwinds, Commerzbank sees attractive potential but is adjusting its timing. While the year-end target for gold has been lowered from $5,000 to $4,800, this still represents a solid increase of around 8 percent from current levels. The analysts’ base scenario assumes a two-month geopolitical transition phase. After that, the bank expects the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. The logical consequence: falling prices for Brent crude oil, easing inflationary pressure, and a retreat from the currently aggressive interest rate expectations. Of interest to investors: Contrary to the current market positioning, Commerzbank does not believe there will be a real key interest rate hike this year. Instead, the experts expect interest rates to remain unchanged and see the next real monetary policy move as a cut—but not until the second quarter of 2027 at the earliest. The fundamental drivers remain strong (2027 target: $5,200) Because the overarching macro picture remains intact, Commerzbank is sticking firmly to its long-term forecast of $5,200 per troy ounce by the end of 2027. The time lag does not alter the massive structural drivers: The rampant and rapidly growing U.S. national debt is forcing monetary policy that is too loose relative to inflation. Dwindling confidence in the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency continues to fuel central bank gold purchases. The strategic interest of private and institutional investors in tangible assets remains consistently high. Silver in the wake: Industrial weakness weighs on the price In parallel with gold, the bank has also adjusted its expectations for silver. The year-end target has been revised to around $80 per troy ounce. In addition to the subdued gold price, weakening physical demand is the primary factor weighing on prices here. The Silver Institute expects industrial demand for silver to shrink for the second year in a row and reach a four-year low. Nevertheless, the fundamental supply-demand balance in the silver market remains tight. Consequently, Commerzbank expects prices to rise again in the coming year and forecasts a silver price of around $90 per troy ounce by the end of 2027 (previously $95). Conclusion: According to the bank’s outlook, major price surges for both gold and silver are being pushed back in time. However, since the long-term fundamental arguments remain strong, the current consolidation phase could offer strategic investors an attractive entry opportunity before the interest rate turnaround actually takes effect. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-rally-merely-postponed-analysts-predict-usd4-800-by-year-end

Commerzbank expects copper prices to rise to $14,250 per mt by mid-2027.

Published: May 09, 2026 - 12:24 AM Updated: May 09, 2026 - 12:28 AM (Kitco News) - Gold prices continue to trade in elevated territory, holding new support above $4,700 an ounce, and some analysts have noted that downside risks for the precious metal remain limited as central bank demand continues to provide solid support. Specifically, the People’s Bank of China continues to see lower gold prices as a buying opportunity, as the central bank bought 8.1 tonnes of gold in April, following its 5-tonne purchase in March. China has been a dominant player in the gold market in recent years, increasing its official gold reserves for the last 18 consecutive months. At the same time, the pace of purchases is at its highest level since December 2024. Analysts have said that it is difficult to be short gold when the market continues to see consistent demand from the official sector. “Central bank purchases have been among the key drivers of gold demand for over four years,” said Barbara Lambrecht, Commodity Analyst at Commerzbank, in a note on Friday. “Despite the significant rise in prices, purchases by central banks and other public institutions in the first quarter totaled nearly 245 tonnes, according to the WGC, which was 3% higher than the previous year and even slightly above the five-year average.” Although China has been a key player in the gold market, it is certainly not alone. Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst, EMEA at the World Gold Council (WGC), said in a social media post on Thursday that updated reserve data showed the Czech National Bank bought 2 tonnes of gold last month. “Its YTD net purchases now total 8 tonnes, helping to lift total gold holdings to over 79 tonnes,” he said. Gopaul also said that according to preliminary estimates, Poland’s central bank bought another 13 tonnes of gold in April; however, he added that this cannot be confirmed until official reserve numbers are updated. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-08/china-and-other-central-banks-continue-buy-dip-gold

Gold has been pulled in two directions in recent weeks. On one side, rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions have strengthened the metal’s safe-haven appeal.

The silver price has recently settled in a narrow range between 78 and 80 US dollars per ounce. However, while the market initially signals stability, Commerzbank advises caution: