[SMM Copper Market Flash] After SHFE copper closed today, COMEX copper prices surged, while LME’s decline widened to over 1.7%; currently, the COMEX2607-LME spread has widened to over $300/mt, and the COMEX2610-LME spread to over $500/mt. It is reported that there is still no clear news on the Section 232 tariff, and the LC spread has been relatively active.

SMM Analysis | June 30 marks a critical milestone in the U.S. Section 232 copper investigation. Will refined copper tariffs proceed as expected? Whether the outcome is a broad tariff, targeted measures, or a delay and exemption, the decision could reshape the COMEX–LME arbitrage, U.S. physical premiums, global copper trade flows, and regional supply dynamics.

[SMM Analysis]: Copper-related Policy Shifts Across the Americas: Copper is no longer merely an industrial metal — it is rapidly emerging as a strategic resource. From mining policy reforms in Chile and Peru, to the U.S. Section 232 investigation and the strengthening of North American critical minerals strategies, copper policies across the Americas in 2025–2026 are set to exert profound influence over global copper supply-demand balances, smelting dynamics, and copper price volatility.

US COMEX copper prices surged to record highs as traders increasingly bet on potential new tariffs targeting critical metal imports. At the same time, global copper supply remains under pressure from mining disruptions, sulphuric acid shortages, and tight concentrate availability. Analysts said demand from AI infrastructure, power-grid expansion, and clean-energy investment continues to strengthen expectations for long-term copper shortages. Market participants believe the price gap between US copper futures and LME copper could widen further if tariff risks escalate.

On the macro front, the US dollar has rebounded continuously, supported by strong US economic indicators such as June's non-farm payrolls and manufacturing data.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,626/mt, reaching a high of $9,665/mt in the early session before fluctuating downward to a low of $9,580.5/mt during the session. It maintained a rangebound fluctuation towards the end of the session, closing at $9,607/mt, down 1.26%. Trading volume reached 47,000 lots, and open interest reached 271,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2509 contract opened at 78,180 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 78,270 yuan/mt in the early session before maintaining a rangebound fluctuation throughout the session, touching a low of 77,960 yuan/mt towards the end. It ultimately closed at 78,010 yuan/mt, down 0.55%. Trading volume reached 24,000 lots, and open interest reached 173,000 lots.