SMM, Jul 2: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on overseas and China markets showed mixed performance. Only LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE tin rose, with SHFE tin up 0.99%, LME nickel up 0.49%, and SHFE copper up 0.07%. SHFE aluminum closed flat at 22,485 yuan/mt. LME zinc led the decline, down 1.68%, while losses in other metals were within 1%. The most-traded alumina contract rose 0.11%, and the most-traded aluminum casting contract rose 0.4%. In the ferrous metals sector overnight, iron ore led gains, up 1.7%. Rebar rose 0.1%, while stainless steel fell 0.54% and hot-rolled coil edged down 0.09%. Coking coal and coke, coking coal closed flat at 1,265 yuan/mt, and coke fell 1.12%. In the precious metals sector overnight, COMEX gold rose 0.15% and COMEX silver fell 0.53%. On the domestic front, SHFE gold rose 1.23% and SHFE silver rose 1.44%. As of 6:43 a.m. on Jul 2, overnight closing quotes: Macro Front China: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, compiled by RatingDog, came in at 51.7 in June, staying in expansion territory for the seventh consecutive month. [Shenzhen Housing Market Trading Volume Hits Near 6-Year High in June] Data released today by the Shenzhen Centaline Research Center showed that combined new and second-hand residential home sales in Shenzhen reached 8,878 units in June, down 11.9% MoM but up 14.2% YoY. This was the highest transaction volume for the same period since 2021. Specifically, online registrations of new homes (pre-sale and move-in) totaled 3,785 units, down 16.7% MoM but up 15.6% YoY. Second-hand home transfers reached 5,093 units, down 8% MoM but up 13.1% YoY. (Jinshi Data APP) US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101.41. Fortress Securities stated that investors are underestimating the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates as early as this month, as Chairman Kevin Warsh appears ready to take a more preemptive approach to fighting inflation. The firm's head of macro strategy, Frank Flight, continues to view two rate hikes this year—in September and December—as his base case. Even so, he noted that the market is pricing in a roughly 30% probability of a July hike, a level he considers too low. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh set an ambitious timetable for the US central bank to "discover" and begin relying on real-time economic data, which he argues would be superior to what he described as "problematic government reports." "My aspiration is that in nine to 12 months, we will be leveraging new technologies to understand what is happening in the real economy in a synchronous, real-time manner, enabling us as central bank policymakers to make better decisions. We will no longer rely solely on data from government agencies that suffer from statistical biases and where surveys have lost their relevance," Warsh said at a monetary policy forum in Portugal. "My ideal data is 'what's happening now.' If we do our jobs well, a year from today we will say: we have uncovered data that helps us make better decisions." Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stated at the ECB Forum on Central Banking (the final day of the Sintra annual conference) that inflation risks have receded over the past four weeks, while he reaffirmed his commitment to price stability. He declined to provide any forward guidance on future interest rate policy. He described the labour market as "holding steady," noting robust economic demand and strong supply-side performance. Deutsche Bank analysis pointed out that Fed officials' public remarks have declined notably since the Jun 17 FOMC meeting, confirming Warsh's earlier policy stance that "US central bank officials talk too much" and that there is a need to reduce forward guidance and push for "institutional change." (Wallstreetcn) Data: US private-sector job growth slowed in June but increased for the 12th consecutive month, showing the labour market cooldown has yet to evolve into a sharp slowdown. Data released Wednesday by ADP Research showed US private payrolls rose by 98,000 in June, below the 119,000 estimated by economists. The prior month's figure was an increase of 122,000. Although the gain missed expectations, the data still supports the judgment that the labour market has been stabilizing this year. Macro Front: Data releases today include the US June unemployment rate, US June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for the week ended Jun 27, US June average hourly earnings YoY, US June average hourly earnings MoM, US May factory orders MoM, Switzerland June CPI MoM, and the Eurozone May unemployment rate. Due to the US Independence Day holiday (Jul 3), US June non-farm payrolls data will be released earlier, at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on Thursday, Jul 2. The US stock market will be closed on Friday, Jul 3. Trading in CME precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts will end early at 1:00 a.m. Beijing time on Jul 4. Trading in ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts will end early at 1:30 a.m. Beijing time on Jul 4. Investors are advised to take note. (Jinshi Data APP) In addition, the Ministry of Commerce will hold its first regular press conference for July. 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will attend a conference on the Spanish economy. Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices fell across both benchmarks, with WTI crude down 2.03% and Brent crude down 2.41%. The immediate driver of the heavy sell-off was a rapid easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A White House spokesperson explicitly stated there is a strong chance of reaching a deal between the US and Iran, with delegations from both sides having held indirect talks in Doha on Jul 1 on topics including unfreezing assets and ensuring maritime security in the strait. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley concluded that the global oil market is about to return to severe oversupply. Even accounting for the massive global demand to replenish strategic petroleum reserves, the daily average net surplus in the crude oil market next year will still approach 2 million barrels, exerting long-term pressure on oil prices. (Wallstreetcn) Official data showed US crude oil inventories fell from 415 million barrels at the end of February to 331 million barrels as of Jun 19, hitting their lowest level since 1983. Although these depleted reserves urgently need to be rebuilt, this is not enough to reverse the surplus pattern. Samantha Dart, Goldman Sachs' co-head of global commodities research, estimated global demand to replenish strategic petroleum reserves is slightly above 1 million barrels per day. While this will tighten the market to some extent, it can only partially offset the anticipated surplus, with the market ultimately still facing a net surplus of nearly 2 million barrels per day. Regarding market concerns over future shipping costs in the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs believes the material impact on global energy prices would be limited. (Wallstreetcn)

The most-traded HRC futures contract drifted lower today and closed at 3,285, down 0.79% for the day, falling below previous support. Spot HRC prices fell by 10-25 yuan/mt today, and spot cold-rolled coil prices declined by 10 yuan/mt. Supply side, this week’s impact from hot rolling maintenance was 63,100 mt, down 85,000 mt WoW; next week’s impact from maintenance is 23,100 mt, down 40,000 mt WoW from this week. Overall HRC production is expected to edge up. Demand side, end-users remain in the off-season, and the continued decline in futures led to poor speculative sentiment, with a sluggish overall market atmosphere. Cost side, the ninth round of coke price increases has been implemented, and there are market talks that the 10th round of increases will be launched on Friday. Hot metal output fell by 4,700 mt WoW this week, and cost-side support has weakened somewhat but has not collapsed yet. Looking ahead, contradictions in sheets & plates continue to accumulate. Inventory data released this week show that most cities continued to see inventory buildup, and downstream support remains weak. However, futures have already reached a relatively low level, so there is not expected to be much room for further pullback in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to steel mill maintenance.

The DCE iron ore futures consolidated today, with contract I2609 closing at 733 yuan/mt, down 1.68% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices fell 10-12 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Trader activity was moderate, while steel mill inquiries increased. Spot trading volume was moderate as of now. Demand for iron ore was expected to trend lower in July. On one hand, the steel market was impacted by the off-season, with reductions in both domestic demand and exports and prices trending downward. Meanwhile, the ninth round of coke price increases was implemented, expectations for a tenth round were strong, and steel mill profits remained under pressure, fueling expectations for production cuts. According to SMM's survey this week, sample steel mill production was 2.456 million mt, down 4,700 mt WoW, and some enterprises had started arranging maintenance plans, with hot metal output expected to decline further. Overall, short-term ore prices were expected to be bearish. [SMM Steel]

Recently, the steel-coke integrated clean energy project of CIMC Enric in Liupanshui City, Guizhou Province, officially went into operation. Relying on local steel industry resources, the project has achieved efficient and resource-based utilization of coke oven gas, producing fuel cell-grade high-purity hydrogen and clean energy LNG on a large scale, injecting new momentum into the expansion of the hydrogen energy industry and the development of comprehensive clean energy utilization in south-west China. The project, controlled by CIMC Enric and solely invested and constructed by its subsidiary CIMC New Energy (Liupanshui) Technology Co., Ltd., relies on the industrial coke oven gas from Shougang Shuicheng Steel (Group) Co., Ltd. as the core production raw material to specially produce blue LNG and 99.999% high-purity blue hydrogen , achieving green and high-value-added conversion of industrial tail gas. The overall project total investment of 808 million yuan , with a construction period of 12 months and a planned site area of 248 mu. After reaching full production, it is expected to achieve an annual output of approximately 140,000 mt of LNG and annual production of 24 million Nm³ of high-purity hydrogen , with considerable capacity scale and outstanding industrial benefits. It is reported that this project is an important piece in CIMC Enric's integrated steel-coke industry layout. Currently, the enterprise already has two similar projects, at Ansteel Bayuquan and Lingsteel, operating stably. Meanwhile, three new projects are in the early preparation stage. The industry layout covers domestic provinces such as Liaoning, Guizhou, and Sichuan, and extends to overseas markets in Southeast Asia. As of now, the company's total operating integrated steel-coke projects are expected to achieve an annual production capacity of 48 million Nm³ of hydrogen, 420,000 mt of LNG, and 80,000 mt of liquid ammonia, with the advantages of large-scale industrial clusters gradually becoming prominent. The Liupanshui project was implemented entirely relying on CIMC Enric's proprietary core technologies and complete equipment systems. Throughout the entire process of production, liquefaction, storage and transportation, distribution, and end-use applications, it is equipped with the enterprise's self-developed LNG storage tanks, cryogenic liquefaction equipment, hydrogen compression units, and a plant-wide DCS intelligent control system, achieving digitalized and refined control over the entire production chain. Meanwhile, the project received integrated comprehensive construction services from CIMC Enric Engineering Technology Co., Ltd., fully leveraging the company's technical barrier advantages in core processes and key equipment, to create a high-quality, innovative clean energy comprehensive demonstration project, precisely aligning with Guizhou Province's "Rich Ore Refined Development" policy and helping to upgrade and expand the regional clean energy industry. The high-purity hydrogen produced by this project fully meets fuel cell-grade application standards , with significant industrial empowerment value. On the one hand, it can steadily provide low-cost, high-quality hydrogen sources for industrial enterprises in the region such as precious metal processing and semiconductor manufacturing, ensuring the hydrogen demand of local high-end manufacturing industries. On the other hand, it will strongly support the construction of Liupanshui as a hydrogen energy demonstration city, helping to deploy new application scenarios such as gas-hydrogen-electricity integrated energy service stations and hydrogen combined heat and power. The project will also become a core hydrogen supply node in the "Yu-Qian-Gui" Hydrogen Corridor , improving China's industrial by-product hydrogen purification and hydrogen source supply system, and laying a solid foundation for building a cross-regional supply and sales framework of "Guizhou Hydrogen, Guangdong Sales" and establishing channels for the entire hydrogen energy industry chain in the future. Currently, Liupanshui City has built a diversified, multi-scenario hydrogen downstream consumption system, with remarkable results in the commercialization and application of hydrogen energy. Since 2025, 100 49-mt-class hydrogen heavy-duty trucks and 4 8.6-metre hydrogen fuel cell buses have been put into use locally. At the same time, the first hydrogen fuel cell locomotive in south-west China has been deployed and completed trial operation, filling the industrial gap in hydrogen railway freight in south-west China. At this stage, Liupanshui continues to broaden the application boundaries of hydrogen energy, covering heavy-duty truck transport, sanitation operations, cold chain logistics, and railway freight—various livelihood and industrial sectors—while actively exploring cutting-edge application tracks such as hydrogen metallurgy and hydrogen-based chemicals, striving to build a comprehensive and multi-level hydrogen industry ecosystem.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Coking Coal Market: Linfen low-sulphur coking coal is quoted at 2,050 yuan/mt. Regarding coking coal, the resumption of production at mines that had previously halted or cut output has been slow, and with strict safety supervision, supply is unlikely to see significant improvement, providing strong support for prices of key coal types. However, finished steel prices have pulled back, and downstream coke and steel companies are resistant to high-priced resources. In the online auction market, some high-priced coal types have failed to sell. Coke Market: The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 2,090 yuan/mt. On the news front, mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong regions have accepted an increase of 50 yuan/mt for wet-quenched coke and 55 yuan/mt for dry-quenched coke, to be implemented from 00:00 on July 1, 2026. Supply side, the ninth round of coke price increases has been implemented, with most coke enterprises profitable and operating at moderate rates. In addition, coke enterprises are proactively selling, keeping their own coke inventories within reasonable ranges. Demand side, hot metal output at steel mills is expected to decline, weakening the rigid demand for coke. Moreover, steel mill profits are thin, limiting their ability to absorb further price hikes. In summary, recent steel price weakness has led to a slight pullback in market sentiment. In the short term, the coke market is likely to remain generally stable with slight rise. [SMM Steel]

SMM News on July 1: Metals market: As of midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.44%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.86%. SHFE lead fell 1.46%. SHFE zinc rose 1.01%. SHFE tin rose 0.93%. SHFE nickel fell 0.61%. Additionally, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.64%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.11%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 5.65%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.6%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 3.08%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 1.81%, HRC fell 0.52%. Rebar fell 0.79%, stainless steel fell 0.14%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2%, the most-traded coke contract fell 2.33%. Overseas base metals market, as of 11:36, LME metals all fell. LME copper fell 0.91%, LME aluminum fell 1.18%, LME lead fell 0.69%. LME zinc fell 0.69%, LME tin fell 1.53%. LME nickel fell 0.37%. Precious metals, as of 11:36, COMEX gold fell 1.09%, COMEX silver fell 2.74%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.37%; the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 0.5%. Additionally, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.91%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.03%. As of midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures fell 9.81% to 2,560 points. As of 11:36 on July 1, midday futures quotes for some contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper reported at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper reported at parity, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper reported at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,220 yuan/mt, up 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,135 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt... Macro front China: [The PBOC net withdrew 1,162.5 billion yuan from the open market today.] The PBOC conducted 100 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today at an unchanged interest rate of 1.4%. Today, 662.5 billion yuan in 7-day and 600 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos matured. [Shenzhen's June housing transactions hit a near 6-year high.] According to data released by Shenzhen Centaline Research Center today, Shenzhen's new and secondhand home transactions totaled 8,878 units in June, down 11.9% MoM but up 14.2% YoY. The combined new and secondhand home transaction volume hit a new high for the same period since 2021. Among them, first-hand residential (presale + existing) online signings totaled 3,785 units, down 16.7% MoM but up 15.6% YoY; second-hand residential transfers reached 5,093 units, down 8% MoM but up 13.1% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar aspect: As of 11:36, the US dollar index rose 0.16% to 101.33. Fed’s Hammack said: The labour market is near full employment, with good growth prospects. Inflation remains too high, and the Fed may need to consider rate hikes. Jason Pride, Chief of Investment Strategy at private wealth management and investment firm Glenmede, and Michael Reynolds, Vice President of Investment Strategy, said investors should expect the US June unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3%, with non-farm payrolls increasing by about 87,000. While this represents a pullback from May’s 172,000, in the current labour market environment of “low hiring, low layoffs,” it still counts as a solid outcome. Although employment fundamentals remain largely intact, the Fed’s focus has shifted to inflation, meaning that the timing of any future easing measures will depend more on inflation pressures than on job growth itself. According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, and the chance of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 33.7%. For September, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 33.1%, the chance of a cumulative 25bp hike is 50.0%, and the chance of a cumulative 50bp hike is 16.9%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data highlights: Today will see the release of US June Challenger Job Cuts, US June ADP Employment Change, US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (final), US June ISM Manufacturing PMI, US May Construction Spending MoM, UK June Nationwide House Price Index MoM, UK June Manufacturing PMI (final), Switzerland May Real Retail Sales YoY, France June Manufacturing PMI (final), Germany June Manufacturing PMI (final), Eurozone June Manufacturing PMI (final), Eurozone June CPI YoY (preliminary), and Eurozone June CPI MoM (preliminary), among others. In addition, Fed Chairman Warsh, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem spoke at the “Policy Panel” session of the ECB’s Global Central Bank Forum. The Davos Technology Summit is held from July 1 to 4, with the theme “Physical AI and Robotics.” It is worth noting that on July 1, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (China) was closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with both northbound and southbound trading suspended. The Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada was closed for Canada Day. Crude oil: As of 11:36, oil prices on both benchmarks edged up, with WTI up 0.42% and Brent up 0.41%. Preliminary vessel tracking data from Kpler and Vortexa showed the UAE lifted exports of crude oil and condensate to a record high in June, shortly after leaving OPEC. Rauball, a senior oil analyst at Kpler, said UAE exports of crude and condensate averaged about 3.7 million barrels per day this month, a record high and well above the pre-Middle East conflict level of 3.1 million to 3.3 million barrels per day. The UAE's previous export peak was 3.44 million barrels per day in April 2020, when Saudi Arabia and Russia triggered a brief oil price war. Emma Li, a senior oil analyst at Vortexa, said crude loadings from Abu Dhabi hit 4 million barrels per day between June 1 and 29, surpassing the pre-conflict level of 3.4 million barrels per day. Exports also rose to a record 3.7 million barrels per day, compared with 3.3 million barrels per day in the first two months of this year. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►