SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $12,744/mt, dipping to $12,642/mt early in the session. The price center then fluctuated upward to a high of $12,928/mt before fluctuating downward to finally close at $12,857/mt, up 1.27%, with trading volume at 22,000 lots and open interest at 293,000 lots, down 4,028 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 99,200 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward early in the session to reach 99,750 yuan/mt, then the price center gradually shifted lower to a low of 99,090 yuan/mt, followed by wild swings before finally closing at 99,310 yuan/mt, up 1.04%, with trading volume at 45,000 lots and open interest at 171,700 lots, down 2,724 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

On June 11 (Wednesday), the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) stated that in April, Codelco's copper production increased 20.5% YoY to 114,600 mt.

In recent weeks, there has been intense debate about the outlook for the copper market in the second half (H2) of 2025.

On May 28 (Wednesday), Chile's National Copper Commission (Cochilco) raised its average copper price forecasts for this year and next, citing improved global prospects following a temporary tariff agreement between China and the US. The commission increased its average copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to $4.30 per pound, up from the previous estimate of $4.25 per pound in its February report. At a press conference, Cochilco's leadership expressed cautious optimism about the copper price outlook, while acknowledging that the global supply situation was tighter than expected and that demand fundamentals were strong. Cochilco stated that the agreement reached between the US and China earlier this month to reduce hefty tariffs for at least 90 days "significantly reduced trade barriers and eased tensions that had affected confidence and global trade dynamics." Cochilco also believes that long-term trends such as the energy transition, power grid expansion, EVs, and ESS will continue to support copper prices. In Q1, production increased at the world's largest copper producers, Codelco and Antofagasta Minerals. Cochilco reported that state-owned Codelco's production grew by 5.2% in April. Despite this, the increase in domestic production did not offset the global decline. Cochilco now expects global supply growth this year to be significantly lower than previously forecasted, at 1.3%, compared to the previous estimate of 4.7% growth. Victor Garay, Cochilco's Mining Market Coordinator, stated that in a market that is effectively balanced, any supply disruptions would directly impact prices. Additionally, Cochilco forecasts that Chile's copper production will increase by 3% this year and continue to rise by 3% in 2026, with an expected output of 5.84 million mt by then. The production guidance is lower than Cochilco's February forecasts, which projected growth rates of 4.6% for 2025 and 3.6% for 2026. Globally, Cochilco forecasts a copper supply deficit of 109,000 mt this year and a slight surplus of 19,000 mt in 2026, with demand expected to grow by 2.3% and 2.8% this year and next, respectively.

According to data released by Cochilco, Codelco's copper production in March increased by nearly 15% year-on-year, rising to 123,200 tons.

["[Codelco's Copper Production Climbs 14.8% in March, Escondida's Copper Production Up 18.9% YoY] On May 8 (Thursday), data released by Chile's National Copper Commission (Cochilco) showed that state-owned miner Codelco's copper production in March increased by 14.8% YoY to 123,200 mt. Cochilco announced that BHP's Escondida mine saw its copper production in March rise by 18.9% YoY to 120,600 mt. (Webstock Inc.)"]