Raw material side, spot lithium carbonate prices fluctuated this week, cobalt sulphate prices remained temporarily stable, and nickel sulphate prices dropped slightly.

This week, the second-life battery market showed clear structural divergence. On the cost side, although lithium carbonate prices saw a temporary uptick this week, they trended downward overall; nickel sulphate prices edged down slightly, while cobalt sulphate prices remained stable. The cost side was mainly affected by fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices. On the supply side, driven by terminal energy storage demand, inventories of new battery cells at battery cell manufacturers were critically low, and the supply of Grade A battery cells was heavily diverted, causing supply in the second-life battery market to remain tight. On the demand side, 280Ah and 314Ah energy storage battery cells were subject to concentrated procurement in the market, resulting in severe shortages and noticeably rising prices. Meanwhile, demand in the EV sector remained weak, inventory was relatively sufficient, and second-life power battery cell prices stayed stable.

Refined Cobalt: This week, spot refined cobalt prices generally fluctuated around 430,000 yuan/mt. During the week, prices briefly surged on news of procurement by overseas traders and export controls in the DRC, but later pulled back into the fluctuation range as macro sentiment weakened and downstream procurement follow-through proved insufficient. In terms of supply, ex-factory prices at mainstream smelters remained stable, traders' spot-futures price spread quotations were steady, and there were no significant changes in the structure of cargoes circulating in the market. In terms of demand, affected by weak cost pass-through, downstream enterprises still showed low acceptance of high-priced raw materials and only maintained a pace of just-in-time stockpiling, with no significant increase seen in actual transactions. Fundamentally, the DRC's export control policy further increased uncertainty over cobalt intermediate products exports, while the pattern of structural tightness in China's raw material supply remained unchanged, continuing to provide bottom support for cobalt prices. Cobalt Intermediate Products: This week, cobalt intermediate product prices continued to hold steady, and the market remained in a pattern of "prices quoted but no trading." In terms of supply, the impact of the DRC's export control policy continued to unfold, market concerns over whether miners could ship smoothly intensified, suppliers' bullish expectations heated up, and they continued to withhold quotations, leaving extremely scarce spot cargoes available in the market. In terms of demand, although smelters still had willingness to procure raw materials, constrained by cobalt salt prices that struggled to catch up, and with downstream orders yet to become clear, enterprises maintained a cautious wait-and-see stance, and actual transactions remained sluggish. Overall, ongoing disruptions in the DRC's export process continued to cast doubt on the timing of bulk arrivals at port, and the structurally tight raw material situation in China may further intensify. Once downstream orders are gradually finalized and procurement demand restarts, intermediate product prices are still expected to have upward momentum. Close attention should be paid to the progress of DRC exports and the pace of downstream demand recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: This week, spot cobalt sulphate prices continued to remain stable. In terms of supply, supported by tight raw materials, most smelters held firm on quotations in the range of 95,000-98,000 yuan/mt. During the week, the DRC's export control document strengthened traders' expectations for a rise in future cobalt salt prices, and low-priced shipments in the market decreased significantly. In terms of demand, most enterprises remained concerned about future orders, and with their own raw material inventory relatively sufficient, they prioritized inventory consumption and only maintained sporadic just-in-time procurement, mainly at low prices. Overall, the market remained in the inventory digestion stage in the short term, with continued bargaining between sellers and buyers, and prices were mainly driven by rangebound adjustments. However, the DRC raw material supply issue has yet to be resolved, and cost support still exists. Once downstream inventories are depleted and procurement restarts, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to regain upward momentum.

Downstream Purchasing Activity for Nickel Intermediate Products Increased, Tight Supply and Demand Drove Prices Higher

[SMM Daily Brief Review on Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, most coke producers still faced slight losses, suppressing their willingness to increase production, and overall supply remained temporarily stable. Meanwhile, shipments from coke producers improved, and coke inventory continued to destock. Demand side, blast furnaces at steel mills resumed operations and production, and hot metal production is expected to increase. In addition, steel mill profits improved somewhat, and finished steel shipments recovered, boosting steel mills' production enthusiasm. However, downstream buyers mostly maintained just-in-time procurement and lacked willingness to purchase for restocking. In summary, the supply-demand imbalance in the coke fundamentals still existed, and the coke market may remain stable next week.

Current manufacturer expectations for this month and April remain cautious, with some companies having already lowered their April production forecasts.