SMM, July 3: At the start of this week, the long-quiet cobalt market saw fresh news again—the DRC announced that unused quotas for H1 2026 will be automatically voided and transferred in a unified manner to the ARECOMS strategic quota pool. Boosted by this news, market pessimism was eased, and refined cobalt prices stopped falling and rebounded, but weak downstream demand remained an inescapable topic in the cobalt market… SMM has compiled this week’s price changes for cobalt products as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, refined cobalt spot prices stopped falling and rebounded this week. As of July 3, refined cobalt spot quotes stood at 378,000-385,000 yuan/mt, averaging 381,500 yuan/mt, up 2,000 yuan/mt from 379,500 yuan/mt on June 26, an increase of 0.53%. » View SMM cobalt-lithium spot quotes From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, mainstream smelters’ EXW prices first fell then rose during the week, and currently, EXW prices are stable at 385,000 yuan/mt. After market stabilization, traders resumed offering, with the spot-futures price spread remaining in a range of parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, boosted by DRC-related news, downstream end-user inquiries warmed slightly, and weekly transactions improved slightly WoW, but most deals were for essential early stockpiling, and a substantive recovery in end-user demand has yet to materialize. In the near term, insufficient downstream demand support, combined with high industry inventories, may keep futures consolidating. A recovery in refined cobalt prices still requires an uptrend in upstream categories such as cobalt intermediate products and cobalt sulphate to drive it. Cobalt salts ( and ): : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt sulphate spot prices edged down slightly on the first day and then remained stable this week. As of July 3, spot cobalt sulphate quotes were temporarily steady at 85,000-87,000 yuan/mt, averaging 86,000 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from June 26, a decline of 0.17%. » View SMM cobalt-lithium spot quotes According to SMM, the cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish this week. On the supply side, primary smelters’ quotes remained firm overall, with mainstream enterprises holding their minimum shipment target price at 85,000 yuan/mt. Boosted by the mid-week DRC policy news, market pessimism was repaired, and some recycling smelters and traders’ willingness to sell at lower prices weakened. Low-priced cargo offers were raised from 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt last week to 82,000-83,000 yuan/mt. Demand side showed no significant recovery yet. Downstream enterprises generally adopted a produce-based-on-sales model, and product settlements mostly used a monthly average price mechanism. To avoid the risk of price spread between purchase and sale at specific time points, most enterprises maintained a wait-and-see sentiment in early July, and substantial restocking activities were likely delayed to mid-to-late July. In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices mainly consolidated. The sustained recovery of the market still needs to wait for the concentrated restocking demand from downstream to be realized. : According to SMM spot quotes, the spot quote of cobalt chloride drifted lower this week. As of July 3, cobalt chloride spot quotes fell to 102,500-104,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 103,250 yuan/mt, down 2,000 yuan/mt from 105,250 yuan/mt on June 26, a decline of 1.9%. According to SMM, the cobalt chloride market remained sluggish this week. Inquiries increased somewhat, but actual transactions were still scarce. On Tuesday, the DRC announced the cancellation of unused quotas for Q2 2026, which only caused a slight fluctuation in the market in the morning and calmed down in the afternoon, indicating that the market's focus had shifted from supply-side disruptions to fundamentals, own demand, and inventory conditions. However, from a fundamental perspective, price rebound faced significant resistance, and the market remained pessimistic in the short term. Supply side, smelter quotes began to stabilize, with some enterprises even slightly raising quotes to test the market; but although downstream inquiries increased, actual implementation was limited. July prices will still need to wait for representative transactions to emerge before having reference significance. Demand side, the "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" sentiment dominated purchasing decisions. Downstream enterprises were still observing whether the current stabilization was a mid-drop pause or a true bottom, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. Overall assessment, short-term cobalt chloride prices are expected to be largely stable, with limited further downside room. : According to SMM spot quotes, Co3O4 spot quotes continued to decline this week. As of July 3, Co3O4 spot quotes fell to 315,000-330,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 322,500 yuan/mt, down 12,500 yuan/mt from 335,000 yuan/mt on June 26, a decline of 3.73%. According to SMM, the Co3O4 market remained extremely sluggish this week, with actual transactions being scarce. Supply side, the mid-year report window had passed, enterprises that were bearish earlier had largely completed their shipments, and after the phased selling pressure was released, quotes stabilized this week. Demand side, although the traditional purchasing window had opened, amidst sustained price pressure, downstream cathode material plants still mainly adopted a wait-and-see stance and continued to push for lower prices in purchasing. The persistently depressed prices further dampened upstream willingness to sell. Overall, the subsequent trajectory of Co3O4 will depend on the price direction of cobalt salts, with near-term movement likely to track sideways in tandem with cobalt chloride. On the raw material front for cobalt intermediate products, SMM spot price data showed that spot prices for cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) edged down this week, with overall fluctuations remaining relatively small. As of July 3, spot prices for cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) stood at $24.25–25.5/lb, with an average of $24.875/lb, down $0.25/lb from the $25.125/lb recorded on June 26, a decline of 0.1%. SMM learned that trading in the spot cobalt intermediate product market was sluggish this week. Mid-week, the DRC government announced the revocation of miners' unused export quotas for H1 2026, significantly boosting long-term bullish sentiment in the market. Supported by this, mainstream miners kept their offers firm around the $25.5/lb level, while some traders' lowest shipment prices for small-lot cargoes stabilized near $24/lb. With cobalt salt market valuations currently running at low levels, a back-calculation based on spot cobalt salt prices suggests that downstream smelters would only accept raw material procurement prices around $23/lb. This creates a notable price spread between buyers and sellers, resulting in a stalemate with few actual transactions being concluded. In the short term, downstream smelting demand offers weak support, and intermediate product prices are likely to continue moving sideways. A breakout to the upside would depend on a demand recovery driven by improved cobalt salt valuations. On the news front, at the start of this week, DRC policy once again roiled the market with the announcement, based on the Autorité de Régulation et de Contrôle des Marchés des Substances Minérales Stratégiques (ARECOMS) press release No. 2026/003, that unused quotas from H1 2026 would be revoked and reallocated into a strategic quota pool. Following the policy release, SMM quickly assessed its potential impact, measuring the supply of cobalt intermediate products (including some high-grade recycled cobalt as supplementary material) into China for June-December 2026 and for 2027 based on two scenarios: 1. Based on market statistics, as of May 2026, miners in the DRC had only made prepayments for approximately 32,000 mt in metal content of cobalt intermediate products. Considering a shipping period of over three months from the DRC to China and the need to supply some cobalt resources to regions outside China, SMM assumes China's imports of cobalt intermediate products from June 2026 to December 2026 will be 46,000 mt in cobalt metal content, with domestic self-production of around 500 mt. For 2027, assuming miners allocate 80% of the 87,000 mt in metal content quota for cobalt intermediate products to China, imports would be around 70,000 mt in cobalt metal content, with domestic self-production of around 1,000 mt. 2. With the strong growth in China's recycled cobalt output this year driven by high economic viability, high-quality recycled cobalt that can partially substitute intermediate products is factored in as supplementary material. This would contribute approximately 18,000 mt in cobalt metal content of raw material from June to December 2026, and about 36,000 mt in cobalt metal content in 2027. From June to December 2026, demand for cobalt intermediate products (including some high-grade recycled cobalt as supplementary material) in China is expected to be around 58,000 mt in cobalt metal content, resulting in a slight surplus of 6,000 mt in cobalt metal content. This surplus is primarily attributed to the arrival of large volumes of intermediate products into ports from August 2026 onward. In 2027, China's demand for cobalt intermediate products (including some high-cobalt recycled supplementary materials) is approximately 105,000 mt Co, with a slight surplus of 3,000 mt Co. However, this surplus remains subject to the following uncertainties. First, if miners, after completing approvals, reduce circulation to control intermediate product prices, the market will still face relatively tight conditions. Second, the approval progress in the DRC remains relatively slow, and the future basic export quotas may not be fully shipped out. If imports fall short of expectations, the market will still face a relatively tight supply.

SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Minutes: This week, the cobalt industry chain overall stopped falling and stabilized. Spot refined cobalt prices rebounded slightly, boosted by policy news from the DRC, and market sentiment recovered somewhat, but actual transactions were still dominated by rigid demand stockpiling. Cobalt intermediate product prices remained stable, with miners’ quotations firm but limited acceptance from downstream smelters, resulting in a significant bid-ask spread. Market transactions for cobalt sulphate, cobalt chloride, and Co3O4 remained sluggish, with strong downstream wait-and-see sentiment and restocking demand not yet significantly released. Cobalt powder prices continued to decline, as off-season pressure on cemented carbide persisted. Ternary cathode precursor prices weakened, while ternary cathode materials rebounded slightly but with limited transactions. LCO demand remained relatively weak.

[SMM Cobalt Lithium Morning Meeting Minutes: This week, overall sentiment in the industry chain recovered, as a rebound in upstream raw material prices drove some material prices higher. Lithium carbonate, LFP, and separator segments performed strongly. Downstream production schedules stayed high, with demand from energy storage, commercial vehicles, and power batteries still providing support. However, acceptance of high prices was limited, and actual transactions were mostly based on essential needs. Cobalt salts, nickel salts, and ternary cathode precursors remained in the doldrums, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market. Overall, short-term prices may continue to drift higher, but attention still needs to be paid to raw material arrivals, the sustainability of restocking, and the realization of end-use demand going forward.]

Refined Cobalt: This week, refined cobalt spot prices stopped falling and rebounded. Supply side, EXW prices from mainstream smelters fell first then rose during the week, currently stable at 385,000 yuan/mt. After the market stabilized, traders resumed offering, with the spot-futures price spread running at parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, buoyed by news from the DRC, downstream end-user inquiry interest modestly picked up. Transactions during the week slightly improved WoW, but most were advance stockpiling for rigid demand, and a substantive recovery in end-user demand has yet to materialize. In the short term, insufficient downstream demand support, coupled with high industry inventory, suggests futures prices will likely consolidate mainly. The refined cobalt price recovery still requires the rise of upstream categories such as cobalt intermediate products and cobalt sulphate to drive it. Cobalt Intermediate Products: This week, the cobalt intermediate products market was sluggish, with futures prices remaining generally stable. Mid-week, the DRC government announced the withdrawal of miners' unexported quotas for H1 2026, greatly boosting long-term bullish sentiment. Supported by this, offers from mainstream miners held firm at $25.5/lb, while some traders with small lots kept their lowest shipment prices at around $24/lb. Currently, cobalt salt market valuations are running at low levels. Back-calculating from cobalt salt spot prices, the acceptable raw material purchase price for downstream smelters is only around $23/lb, resulting in a significant price gap between buyers and sellers and a stalemate in actual transactions. In the short term, weak demand support from the downstream smelting sector means intermediate product prices are likely to continue moving sideways. A subsequent market breakout and strengthening will depend on cobalt salt valuation recovery driving procurement demand. Cobalt Sulphate: This week, the cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish, with prices stopping falling and stabilizing. Supply side, offers from primary smelters were firm overall, with mainstream companies holding their minimum intended shipment price at 85,000 yuan/mt. Buoyed by DRC policy news in mid-week, market pessimism was repaired, and some recycling smelters and traders reduced their willingness to cut prices and sell off cargo. Low-priced cargo offers were raised from 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt last week to 82,000-83,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, no significant recovery has been seen. Downstream enterprises generally adopted a produce-based-on-sales model, and product settlement mostly uses a monthly average price mechanism. To avoid the risk of point-in-time purchase-sales price spreads, most enterprises maintained a wait-and-see sentiment in early July, with substantial restocking activities likely postponed to mid-to-late July. In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices will mainly consolidate, and a sustained market recovery still requires downstream concentrated restocking demand to materialize. SMM New Energy Research Team Wang Cong 021-51666838 Ma Rui 021-51595780 Feng Disheng 021-51666714 Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875 Xiao Wenhao 021-51666872 Zhang Haohan 021-51666752 Wang Zihan 021-51666914 Wang Jie 021-51595902 Xu Yang 021-51666760 Yang Lianting 021-51595835 Wang Zhaoyu 021-51666827

Recently, ARECOMS of the Democratic Republic of the Congo issued provisions governing unused export quotas for the first half of 2026. According to Press Release No. 2026/003 released by the Autorité de Régulation et de Contrôle des Marchés des Substances Minérales Stratégiques (ARECOMS), all unused quotas will be forfeited and reallocated to the strategic quota pool. The full text of the release is as follows:

SMM, June 26: Against the backdrop of sluggish downstream demand, product prices across the cobalt industry chain showed a downward trend under pressure. Cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride recorded five consecutive declines this week, while refined cobalt spot quotations also fell below the round-number level of 380,000 yuan/mt during the week... SMM compiled the quotation changes for cobalt products this week as follows: : According to SMM spot quotations, although refined cobalt spot prices rose 2,500 yuan/mt on the last trading day, they still showed an overall decline this week. As of June 26, refined cobalt spot quotations were in the range of 374,000~385,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 379,500 yuan/mt, down 4,000 yuan/mt from June 18, a decline of 1.04%. Supply and demand side, on the supply front, mainstream smelters lowered their ex-factory quotations to 385,000 yuan/mt. After the deep price slump, most traders suspended market offerings, and wait-and-see sentiment dominated. On the demand side, the rush-to-buy-amid-continuous-price-rise and hold-back-amid-price-downturn mentality continued to curb the downstream procurement pace. Alloy-type enterprises remained on the sidelines and postponed restocking, while some magnetic material enterprises released small procurement demand near 380,000 yuan/mt, making selective restocking. In the short term, futures still face choppy pressure. A stabilization in refined cobalt prices requires two conditions: first, an easing of market funding pressure and a reduction in low-price sell-offs; second, that prices of related products such as cobalt salts stop falling and stabilize, forming support for market confidence. Cobalt intermediate product prices, according to SMM spot quotations, as of June 26, cobalt intermediate product (CIF China) spot prices remained stable earlier, then edged down $0.025/lb on the last trading day of the week. Quotations stayed in the range of $24.75-25.5/lb, with an average of $25.125/lb. The overall price center changed little. According to SMM, on the supply side of cobalt intermediate products, mainstream miners and traders maintained their offers near $25.5/lb, while downstream smelters remained conservative in procurement, with intended purchase prices generally below $25/lb. Some smelters even planned to sell their intermediate products at $24.8-24.9/lb, turning to procure low-priced recycled black mass to control production costs. On the logistics side, since May, some Chinese-invested miners have gradually increased chartered shipping volumes, and some leading miners have gradually resumed shipments since June. Port arrivals of intermediate products are expected to trend slowly upward in the following months, potentially forming concentrated batch arrivals after August. In the short term, end-use demand support is insufficient, and cobalt intermediate product prices will most likely continue to move sideways. Should prices strengthen going forward, a recovery in downstream operating rates and a repair of cobalt salt prices must form a resonance. Cobalt salt side ( and ): : According to SMM spot price data, cobalt sulphate spot prices continued to show persistent weakness this week. After five consecutive declines, spot cobalt sulphate prices dropped to 85,000-87,300 yuan/mt, with the average price reported at 86,150 yuan/mt, down 2,350 yuan/mt from 88,500 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 2.66%. According to SMM, the trading atmosphere in the cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish this week, with the spot price center slowly moving lower. Supply side performance continued to diverge: offers from primary smelters were relatively firm, with mainstream producers maintaining their minimum selling intention price above 85,000 yuan/mt; some recycling smelters and traders, under cash flow pressure, lowered offers further to 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, the continuous price erosion dampened downstream stockpiling confidence, with enterprises’ psychological price levels largely concentrated at 79,000-80,000 yuan/mt. Although some downstream purchase intention prices have converged with the lowest seller offers in the market, bulk transactions remained limited as the low-priced supply did not fully match downstream requirements in commercial terms and product quality. In the short term, the weak pattern of cobalt sulphate prices is hard to fundamentally reverse, and stabilization and rebound still await the material realization of downstream concentrated restocking demand. side: According to SMM spot price data, spot cobalt chloride prices also recorded five consecutive declines this week. As of June 26, spot cobalt chloride prices dropped to 104,000-106,500 yuan/mt, with the average price reported at 105,250 yuan/mt, down 3,750 yuan/mt from 109,000 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 3.44%. From a fundamental perspective, the cobalt chloride market continued to be extremely sluggish this week, with scarce actual transactions and spot liquidity almost drying up. Supply side, most smelters remained suspended from quoting, and sporadic offers more reflected cost bottom lines and psychological expectations. Against the backdrop of difficulty in achieving sales without substantial price concessions, their guiding significance for transactions has been quite limited. Demand side, downstream producers still held some raw material inventory to maintain turnover. In an environment of weak end-use demand and continuous price erosion, the “rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn” mentality combined with pessimistic expectations for the future further suppressed purchase willingness. Overall, although the pessimistic atmosphere in the cobalt chloride market was still spreading and the divergence between bulls and bears not fully resolved, a relatively positive signal emerged this week: current transactions could no longer factor in the semi-annual report performance window of various companies, and upstream offers in the market have stabilized after stopping falling, injecting a glimmer of hope into the overall pessimistic market sentiment. However, the direction for H2 remains unclear, and the guiding value of the July price trend remains prominent and warrants close attention. : According to SMM spot price assessments, spot Co3O4 quotes drifted lower this week. As of June 26, spot Co3O4 quotes fell to 329,000-341,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 335,000 yuan/mt, down 3,500 yuan/mt from 338,500 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 1.03%. According to SMM, the Co3O4 market also remained extremely sluggish this week, with very few actual transactions. On the supply side, upstream producers still held divergent views on the market outlook, but given that this week's deals could no longer be settled before the semi-annual report deadline, most previously bearish enterprises had largely completed their shipments, releasing price pressure in stages, and offers began to stabilize this week. On the demand side, although June is a traditional negotiation window, against the backdrop of persistently falling Co3O4 prices, downstream cathode material plants generally adopted a wait-and-see approach; even when they had purchasing intentions, they mainly pushed for significantly lower prices, and the continued price decline in turn further weakened upstream shipment motivation. Overall, the subsequent trend of Co3O4 will still depend on the price direction of cobalt salts. On the news front, recently, the May cobalt product import and export data were released. According to customs data, China's imports of unwrought cobalt in May 2026 were approximately 673 mt, down 50% MoM but up 3% YoY. By source, the top three regions for refined cobalt imports in May were Indonesia (211 mt), Madagascar (93 mt), and Canada (85 mt). The sharp drop in imports this month was mainly because previously accumulated overseas low-priced cobalt raw materials had been consumed, and the prices of newly imported cobalt plates and cobalt beans were higher than other domestic cobalt raw materials, leading to reduced willingness of smelters to purchase for remelting. On the import price side, the average import price of China's unwrought cobalt in May 2026 was $54,557/mt, up 3.48% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to May 2026 reached 6,589 mt, up 120% YoY. On the export side, China's unwrought cobalt exports in May 2026 were approximately 370 mt, up 70% MoM but down 88% YoY. By destination, China's exports to the Netherlands surged significantly, with May exports reaching 205 mt, up 791% MoM. On the export price side, the average export price of China's unwrought cobalt in May 2026 was $53,403/mt, down 2.17% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to May 2026 totaled 2,161 mt, down 79% YoY. Cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products, China's imports of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in May 2026 were approximately 2,584 mt in physical content, up 107% MoM and down 95% YoY, of which imports from the DRC were approximately 2,066 mt in physical content, up 119% MoM and down 96% YoY. The average import price of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in May 2026 was $16,607/mt in physical content, down 3.37% MoM. It is reported that since May, some Chinese miners have been increasing shipment bookings, and some leading miners have gradually resumed shipments from June. Port arrivals of intermediate products are expected to slowly increase in the coming months, and bulk arrivals are expected after August.