Grupo Mexico expects the global copper market to remain in a slight deficit in 2026, supported by a resilient U.S. economy and growing demand from decarbonization technologies, artificial intelligence and electric vehicles, according to Leonardo Contreras, head of the company's mining division. The company said current supply and demand fundamentals point to a tight copper market, with demand continuing to strengthen across energy transition, AI infrastructure and EV applications. Grupo Mexico also reported a 79% year-on-year increase in second-quarter net profit, driven by stronger copper prices.

SMM July 23 News: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,872.5/mt, drifted lower to a low of $1,863/mt during the Asian session; after entering the European session, bears reduced positions, and LME lead climbed to a high of $1,898.5/mt late in the session, finally closing at $1,893/mt, up 1.34%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened higher with a gap at 15,790 yuan/mt, consolidated around 15,815 yuan/mt, with a high of 15,850 yuan/mt and a low of 15,770 yuan/mt during the session, finally closing at 15,820 yuan/mt, up 0.6%. Recently, some primary lead smelters have maintenance plans, and new and expanded capacities of secondary lead smelters have been put into operation. Weak consumption in the lead market, combined with supply pressure, led to widening spot discounts; meanwhile, high inventory outside China weighed on the upside of lead prices, keeping prices under pressure in the short term. The market has entered a gaming stage, and lead prices will mainly consolidate on a weak note.

The US has surpassed Europe in investment in critical minerals, leaving the latter struggling to shake off its dependence. Citing analysis by the French Institute of International Relations, WSJ reports that over the past five years, the US has invested about $46 billion in critical raw material projects through grants, loans, and tax incentives—eight times the amount invested by the EU. The US is also negotiating prioritized development of mineral resources in countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ukraine, while supporting overseas projects through financing plans. WSJ says the US’s aggressive strategy has disrupted Europe’s plans. To secure a loan from the US Export-Import Bank, Pensana, a London-based rare earth developer working on the Longonjo project in Angola, has already moved a processing plant originally planned to be built in the UK to the US.

[SMM HRC Daily Trading] On July 22, the combined daily trading volume of hot-rolled coil from sample enterprises in SMM’s four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) was 12,270 mt, a day-on-day increase of 270 mt (+2.3%), a YoY decline of 27.14% on the Gregorian calendar, and a YoY decline of 12.98% on the lunar calendar.

[SMM Analysis: Expert Opinions Clash – Semi-Solid-State Battery Mass Production Year Begins, All-Solid-State Still Building Momentum] 2026 is widely regarded by the industry as the "mass production year" for semi-solid-state batteries. However, expert opinions on the industrial positioning and time pace of semi-solid-state and all-solid-state batteries are markedly divided. SVOLT Energy Technology Chairman Yang Hongxin and Huang Xuejie from the Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, among others, lean toward the view that "semi-solid-state will be the long-term mainstream," while CATL Chairman Zeng Yuqun and Gotion High-tech Chief Scientist Zhu Xingbao remain cautiously optimistic about all-solid-state batteries from the perspectives of technological maturity and cost.

SMM, July 22 – In the metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper gained 1.34%, SHFE aluminum added 0.72%, SHFE zinc advanced 0.78%, SHFE lead fell 0.85%, SHFE tin climbed 1.11%, and SHFE nickel jumped 1.36%. Furthermore, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.59%, the most-traded alumina contract settled on par with 2,723 yuan/mt. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 0.5%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.42%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.59%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore fell 1%, rebar edged lower, and HRC was flat at 3,284 yuan/mt. Stainless steel rose 0.61%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract gained 1.56%, and the most-traded coke contract advanced 0.66%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:45 AM, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper fell 0.3%, LME aluminum edged up, and LME lead, LME zinc, and LME tin all posted gains within 0.2%. LME nickel rose 0.52%. In precious metals, as of 11:45 AM, COMEX gold rose 1.53% and COMEX silver gained 1.64%. In domestic precious metals, SHFE gold rose 2.8%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract surged 4.79%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 4.2%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract jumped 5.44%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping contract on the European route fell 0.52% to 2,785 points. As of 11:45 AM on July 22, some futures midday market conditions: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations and technical corrections drove a silver price rebound, which may maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Spot market demand was sluggish, with transactions near parity, and the pattern of weak supply and demand persists... Macro Front China: [GAC: Accelerate Implementation of 57 Port Facility Renovation Projects under the 15th Five-Year Plan] This morning (July 22), the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, accelerating customs modernization, and serving the building of a trade power. Ports are the gateway to opening-up. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the customs will accelerate the implementation of major projects and key border port projects under the national 15th Five-Year Plan, simultaneously carry out 57 port facility renovation projects under the plan, and speed up the construction of railway ports such as Turugart and Ganqimaodu. This will help further optimize the layout of port opening. (CCTV News) [Beijing Rolls Out "Ten Go-Global Measures" to Reduce Burden and Empower Digital Economy Enterprises Going Global] On July 21, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology held a press conference on the H1 2026 economic performance of Beijing's industrial and information software industry. It was introduced at the meeting that at the end of last year, Beijing issued the "Three-Year Action Plan for the Construction of the Beijing Digital Economy Enterprise Go-Global Innovation Service Base (2026–2028)", setting out the goals and tasks for Beijing enterprises going global over the next three years. Drawing on the operational practices of the Beijing Go-Global Base and the core needs of nearly a hundred digital economy enterprises, Beijing recently issued the "Several Measures to Accelerate the Promotion of Digital Economy Enterprises Going Global" (referred to as the "Ten Go-Global Measures"), complementarily, providing ten financial and resource support measures to comprehensively reduce burdens and empower enterprises’ international development. The policy mainly focuses on the following three aspects: first, broadening overseas connection channels to overcome market expansion challenges; second, improving full-process supporting services to reduce cross-border compliance costs; third, fostering an international digital ecosystem to build a capital go-global brand. (Jin10 Data APP) [Guangzhou: plans to steadily and orderly advance the completed home sales system and promote the reform of real estate development financing methods] During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, Guangzhou plans to actively and prudently plan pilot projects for the completed home sales system, selecting suitable land parcels for pilot implementation at an appropriate time. It will strengthen financial service support, encourage commercial banks to increase development loan quotas for completed home sales projects and offer preferential interest rates. For completed home sales land parcels, support such as installment payment of land premiums and public resource allocation will be provided. For projects that continue to use the presale system, supervision of presale funds for commodity housing will be standardized to regulate fund usage. At the same time, financial coordination will be strengthened to advance the reform of real estate development financing methods, driving a shift in real estate development enterprise financing from reliance on the creditworthiness of the entity to meeting the reasonable financing needs of real estate projects. For each project, one bank or a banking syndicate will be designated as the lead bank. Funds from project development, construction, and sales will be deposited with the lead bank, which will ensure that the project company’s reasonable financing needs are met, forming a virtuous cycle mechanism where the lead bank and the project company share interests and risks. Closed management requirements for real estate project funds will be implemented. Before project delivery, it is strictly prohibited for investors to illegally withdraw or divert the project company’s sales and financing funds, and capital withdrawal or early dividend distribution is strictly prohibited. The Guangzhou Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau is publicly soliciting opinions on the "Guangzhou Housing Development 15th Five-Year Plan (Draft for Comments)." It will optimize the supply scale and pace of commercial residential land to promote market supply-demand balance. High-quality urban design and "good housing" construction requirements will be incorporated into land transfer conditions to enhance residential building quality. Real estate development enterprises are encouraged to shift from "scale-oriented" to "quality-oriented" approaches, continuously optimize standards, and build more livable high-quality housing. Support for housing will be steadily advanced for newly introduced talent, newly employed university graduates, newly married or first-time childbearing families, families with multiple children, and families supporting elderly members, so as to reduce the burden of purchasing a first home. Increase policy support for "selling old and buying new" homes, and implement relevant tax incentives. Standardize real estate brokerage services, and guide all types of real estate agencies to operate in accordance with the law, compete fairly, and clearly mark prices. Strengthen oversight of existing-home transactions, and establish and improve regulatory systems for transaction funds for existing homes. (Jin10 Data APP) [PBOC reverse repo operation resulted in a net withdrawal of 350.5 billion yuan today] The PBOC conducted 76 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, and with 426.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing, a net withdrawal of 350.5 billion yuan was realized on the day. US Dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.07 to 101.14. Markets await next week's Fed meeting for clues on the interest rate outlook and are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East conflict. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 74.9%, with a 25.1% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike. For September, the probability of holding rates steady is 28.9%, while the odds of a cumulative 25-bp hike are 55.7% and a 50-bp hike are 15.4%. (Jin10 Data APP) Furthermore, according to Politico, House Republicans on Tuesday passed a procedural vote 241–211, clearing the way for a short-term government funding bill and the "budget reconciliation 3.0" package. The stopgap funding measure aims to keep the federal government operating through December, while the budget framework provides the basis for a $95 billion partisan policy package. House Republican leadership hopes to pass the temporary funding bill later Tuesday. The House is then expected to vote on the budget resolution on Wednesday. Republicans intend to use this budget framework to begin drafting and passing a third conservative policy bill this Congress without any Democratic support. Other Currencies: Driven by a weak yen and surging oil prices, Japan's import value was up 25.4% YoY in June to a record 11.3 trillion yen (approx. $69.25 billion). This gain exceeded the market's previous expectation of a 21% rise and marked the fastest pace since November 2022, resulting in a trade deficit of 406.9 billion yen (approx. $2.49 billion) in June, far above the forecast of 120 billion yen. Although crude oil imports fell 13.7% YoY in volume terms, their value soared 59.3%, with the yen-denominated unit price also hitting a record high, underscoring that current inflationary pressures are largely driven by exchange-rate factors rather than demand growth. This means that compared to possible short-term changes in oil demand, the yen's appreciation plays a more significant role in easing import cost pressure. On the export side, the resilience brought by AI-related data center demand provides the Bank of Japan with actual economic growth support that can offset inflation risks. This combination of factors suggests that the Bank of Japan is more likely to adopt a cautious, gradual rate hike path rather than a sudden sharp tightening. Currently, the market expects the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates unchanged next week, while still maintaining a hawkish policy bias. (Jin10 Data APP) The Reserve Bank of Australia stated that a latest survey result shows inflation remains the top economic concern for Australians, while a "fundamental gap" still exists in the public's understanding of how monetary policy works. The survey is part of the RBA's efforts to enhance transparency and respond to the 2023 independent review recommendations. Since early last year, the bank has conducted three rounds of surveys, collecting opinions from approximately 9,000 Australians, and uses the results to improve communication with the public. The survey results showed: "Public trust in the RBA is comparable to other Australian and international institutions and has remained stable since early 2025," although trust levels vary across different groups. "Those with higher trust levels tend to have lower inflation expectations, underscoring the importance of trust itself and also its key role in the transmission of monetary policy." (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of the UK June CPI MoM, UK June Retail Price Index MoM, and other data. Crude oil: As of 11:45, both oil benchmarks rose, with WTI crude up 1.03% and Brent crude up 1.15%. Trump downplayed the possibility of immediate negotiations with Iran, and heightened US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices higher. The rise in oil prices directly exacerbated inflation concerns. (Wall Street Insights) Data: Last week, US crude oil inventories increased. API crude oil inventories for the week ending July 17: +2.603 million barrels, vs. expected -500,000 barrels and prior -564,000 barrels. API gasoline inventories for the week ending July 17: -1.379 million barrels, vs. expected -1.81 million barrels and prior -1.664 million barrels. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►