As of July 24, premiums for 6063 aluminium billet across major Southeast Asian markets remained broadly stable throughout July, with no adjustments recorded for four consecutive weeks. The ex-works premium for homogenised 6063 aluminium billet in Cambodia averaged $300/mt, while premiums for homogenised billet in Malaysia and Thailand both stood at $262.5/mt. The ex-works premium for non-homogenised 6063 aluminium billet in Thailand was assessed at $222.5/mt, compared with $205/mt in Vietnam. Meanwhile, the CIF Thailand premium for Chinese exports of non-homogenised 6063 aluminium billet was assessed at a range of minus $100/mt to plus $100/mt, with a midpoint of $0/mt. In terms of price movements, premiums for homogenised 6063 aluminium billet in Thailand and Malaysia had already retreated from their previous highs in June compared with May, before stabilising in July. However, stable premiums did not indicate an improvement in market demand. The 2026 Q3 MJP was settled at $395/mt, up $43.50/mt, or approximately 12.4%, from $351.50/mt in Q2, reaching a historical high. As reference prices for Southeast Asian aluminium billet are generally calculated based on the LME Official Cash Settlement, MJP and the applicable premium, the higher MJP further raised the overall procurement cost of locally produced billet and weighed on downstream purchasing interest. At the same time, Chinese aluminium billet exports continued to compete with locally produced material in Southeast Asia. In Thailand, for example, the CIF premium for Chinese non-homogenised 6063 aluminium billet was assessed at minus $100/mt to plus $100/mt, substantially below the ex-works premium of $222.5/mt for locally produced non-homogenised billet. Although the delivery terms and detailed cost structures of the two types of material are not directly comparable, Chinese export cargoes continued to hold a clear price advantage on a delivered basis. According to SMM market research, some Chinese export cargoes consisted of remelted secondary aluminium billet, which carries relatively lower production costs. Other cargoes were processed from imported materials before being re-exported, resulting in a cost structure different from that of conventional export trade. Supported by these cost advantages, purchases of Chinese aluminium billet in Southeast Asia increased, placing additional pressure on orders received by local billet producers. However, as aluminium billet and aluminium ingot are classified under the same aggregated HS code in existing customs statistics, it is currently difficult to quantify billet export growth separately. The assessment is therefore primarily based on feedback collected through SMM market research. On the supply side, renewed tensions in the Middle East continued to disrupt shipping routes between Asia and Europe in July, affecting exports of Southeast Asian aluminium billet to the European market. Some cargoes originally intended for Europe were redirected to domestic and neighbouring regional markets, further increasing the volume that needed to be absorbed within Southeast Asia. On the demand side, growth in local billet consumption remained insufficient to fully absorb both the surplus supply from Southeast Asian producers and the additional material arriving from China. Under the combined pressure of intensifying supply competition, elevated procurement costs and weak end-user demand, overall trading activity in the Southeast Asian aluminium billet market remained subdued in July. Although premiums across major markets had not declined further, buyers slowed their procurement pace and showed stronger bargaining intentions. Looking ahead, Southeast Asian locally produced aluminium billet premiums are unlikely to gain significant upward momentum in the short term, as the Q3 MJP remains elevated, Chinese export cargoes continue to retain a price advantage, and the region’s ability to divert supply to the European market remains constrained. The high MJP will continue to support overall billet prices. However, unless local consumption improves materially, pressure to absorb regional supply is likely to persist, while market transactions are expected to remain weak. To align with buyers’ target transaction levels and compete with the price advantage of Chinese billet exports, some Southeast Asian billet sellers may need to lower their premiums, offer concessions on MJP pricing, or adopt more flexible pricing arrangements based on the prevailing spot MJP to facilitate transactions.

As of July 24, the premium for 6063 aluminum billets in major Southeast Asian markets remained stable throughout July, with no adjustments for four consecutive weeks. Among them, the local ex-works premium average for 6063 homogenized aluminum billets in Cambodia was $300/mt; the local ex-works premiums for 6063 homogenized aluminum billets in Malaysia and Thailand were both $262.5/mt; the local ex-works premium for 6063 non-homogenized aluminum billets in Thailand was $222.5/mt; and the local ex-works premium for 6063 non-homogenized aluminum billets in Vietnam was $205/mt. The assessed range for CIF premium of 6063 non-homogenized aluminum billets exported from China to Thailand remained between -$100 and +$100/mt, with a midpoint of $0/mt. From a price trend perspective, the premiums for 6063 homogenized aluminum billets in Thailand and Malaysia pulled back in June from their highs in May, and the price center temporarily stabilized after entering July. However, the stability of premiums did not indicate an improvement in market demand. The MJP for Q3 2026 settled at $395/mt, up $43.5/mt from $351.5/mt in Q2, an increase of approximately 12.4%, remaining at a historically high level. As the all-in reference price for Southeast Asian aluminum billets is mainly composed of the LME spot settlement price, MJP, and premium, the rise in MJP further drove up local procurement costs for billets, somewhat dampening downstream purchase willingness. Meanwhile, China's exported aluminum billets continued to compete with locally produced billets in Southeast Asia. Taking the Thai market as an example, the CIF premium range for 6063 non-homogenized aluminum billets exported from China was -$100 to +$100/mt, significantly lower than the ex-works premium of $222.5/mt for locally produced non-homogenized billets in Thailand. Although the delivery terms and specific cost structures of the two supply sources are not entirely identical, Chinese export cargoes still held a strong competitive advantage in terms of landed price. According to SMM market surveys, some Chinese export cargoes consisted of secondary aluminum remelt billets with relatively low production costs, while others were produced under a processing trade with supplied materials before being exported, offering relatively competitive overall trade costs. Driven by price differences, purchases of Chinese aluminum billets in Southeast Asian markets increased, squeezing orders from local producers. As aluminum billets and ingots share a combined HS code in existing customs statistics, it is currently difficult to separately quantify the supply growth of billets through import and export data, and relevant assessments are mainly based on SMM survey feedback. Supply side, in July, the situation in the Middle East tightened again, continuing to affect shipping on Asia-Europe routes, and the shipment of Southeast Asian aluminum billets to the European market was somewhat restricted. Some cargoes that had originally planned to be exported to Europe were instead diverted for sale in the local Southeast Asian and surrounding markets, further increasing regional supply absorption pressure. Demand side, the growth in local aluminum billet consumption in Southeast Asia is limited, not enough to fully absorb the supply diverted back to the local market by local producers and the new supply from China. Weighed down by intensified supply competition, high procurement costs, and weak end-use demand, overall deals in the Southeast Asian aluminum billet market were subdued in July. Although premiums in various regions have not yet seen further declines, actual procurement pace slowed down, and buyers' willingness to bargain increased. Looking ahead to the near term, with Q3 MJP staying high, Chinese exports continuing to maintain a price advantage, and limited diversion capacity of the European market, the premium for locally produced aluminum billet in Southeast Asia is expected to still lack clear upward momentum. High MJP will continue to support the all-in price of aluminum billet, but if local consumption does not show significant improvement, the pressure to digest regional supply may persist, and market transactions are expected to remain in the doldrums. To get closer to buyers' target transaction levels and cope with the price competition from Chinese exported aluminum billet, some billet sellers in Southeast Asia may need to either lower premiums, make concessions on MJP pricing, or adopt more flexible pricing methods such as spot MJP to facilitate deals.

On July 28 local time, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission updated its Covered List to include foreign-produced advanced robotic devices and connected power inverters. Under the new rules, models that have not yet secured FCC equipment authorization will be barred from the U.S. market, while previously authorized models are not immediately affected. In this situation, what is the impact to the current market players?

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