[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: US Fed Risk Warnings and Interest Rate Cut Expectations Intertwined, Aluminum Market Maintains High-Level Consolidation]

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro Sentiment Dominates Marginal Improvement in Fundamentals, Aluminum Prices Expected to Continue Fluctuating at Highs in Short Term] Macro front, both domestic and overseas macro sentiment leans positive. Expectations that Trump may nominate a dovish candidate as Fed Chairman have intensified, boosting market optimism for a December interest rate cut. Meanwhile, after the US federal government ended a record 43-day shutdown, backlogged economic data are being released gradually, alleviating market concerns about data uncertainty. Foreign institutions widely predict that China's economy will maintain steady growth next year with policy support, bolstering market confidence. Fundamentals side, previous aluminum price suppression on consumption has delayed some demand. Last week, the weekly operating rate of leading domestic aluminum processing enterprises rose slightly by 0.3% MoM to 62.3%, with improvements seen in the operating rates of aluminum extrusion, aluminum wire and cable, and both primary and secondary aluminum alloy sectors to varying degrees. Overall, fundamentals provide some support for prices, but recent aluminum price movements are mainly driven by macro sentiment. Overseas, focus remains on the progress of production cuts at the Iceland aluminum plant. SMM expects aluminum prices to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts Intensifies, SHFE Aluminum Expected to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] Overall, on the macro front, the US Fed's monetary policy shows divergence, with the probability of an interest rate cut in December expected to drop significantly, and overseas macro sentiment turning cautious. Earlier, the suppression of consumption by aluminum prices has led to some demand being postponed, providing some support to prices from the fundamentals; overseas, the progress of production cuts at the Icelandic aluminum plant remains a key focus. Aluminum prices are expected to hover at highs in the short term.

SMM Nickel Market Update on September 8: Macro News: (1) August nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly cooled, increasing by only 22,000. June employment data was revised downward to negative growth, marking the first monthly employment contraction since 2020. The unemployment rate rose to its highest level since 2021. Interest rate swaps indicate traders now price in a 96% probability of a 25-basis-point US Fed rate cut at the September meeting, with expectations for a potential 50-basis-point reduction this month. (2) SAFE statistics show China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,322.2 billion as of end-August 2025, up $29.9 billion (0.91%) from July. The stable and progressive Chinese economy has demonstrated strong resilience and vitality, supporting the basically stable foreign reserve level. Spot Market: Today's SMM #1 refined nickel prices ranged 121,300-123,700 yuan/mt, averaging 122,500 yuan/mt, up 800 yuan/mt from the previous session. Jinchuan #1 refined nickel spot premiums quoted between 2,100-2,200 yuan/mt, averaging 2,150 yuan/mt (up 100 yuan/mt). Domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel spot premiums/discounts fluctuated between -100-200 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2510) fluctuated at highs during the night session before closing marginally higher at 121,350 yuan/mt (+250 yuan/mt, 0.21%). Morning trading saw rangebound movement, with the contract settling at 121,560 yuan/mt (+0.38%) by midday. US August nonfarm payrolls added merely 22,000 (vs. 75,000 expected), with unemployment rising to 4.3%. Sharply heightened Fed rate cut expectations and liquidity easing prospects supported base metal prices including nickel. However, persistent LME nickel inventory growth to 215,418 mt fundamentally capped rebound potential. Short-term nickel prices may rebound moderately with limited upside, with SHFE nickel's reference range at 121,000-125,000 yuan/mt. Market focus remains on upcoming US CPI data this week - further inflation pullback could reinforce rate cut expectations and boost nickel prices.