SMM, June 12: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,960/mt. Initially, the price briefly fluctuated upward, hitting a high of $1,974/mt. Then the bulls' upward momentum faded and the price fluctuated downward. During the European session, it continued to fluctuate downward, hitting a low of $1,942/mt. At the end of the session, the price rebounded quickly, finally settling at $1,957.5/mt, forming a small bearish candlestick, down $5/mt, or 0.25%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2607 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,135 yuan/mt. As bears entered, the SHFE lead price fluctuated downward from early to mid-session, hitting a low of 16,000 yuan/mt. Near the end of the session, it rebounded slightly and lifted, finally settling at 16,040 yuan/mt, forming a small bearish candlestick, down 180 yuan/mt, or 1.11%. Middle East geopolitical conflicts weakened overseas consumption and export expectations. LME lead inventories remained at multi-year highs, with ex-China lead prices under pressure, dragging on the Chinese market. Currently, downstream has entered the consumption off-season, battery enterprises are conducting half-year inventory checks, and later-stage procurement tends to contract, making it difficult for the demand side to lift prices. Supply side, some secondary lead smelters plan to cut production due to losses, while some primary lead smelters are in maintenance, coupled with production resumption expectations at some secondary lead smelters. Supply-side bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate in the near term.

SMM May 11: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,974/mt, fluctuated downward during the Asian session to a low of $1,958/mt. As tight supply of lead ingots in the Southeast Asian market persisted, providing strong support for lead prices, it rebounded during the European session, touching a high of $1,979/mt before closing at $1,977.5/mt, down 0.99%. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened high at 16,740 yuan/mt. Due to weak consumption in the spot market, lead prices were in the doldrums, hitting a low of 16,665 yuan/mt before closing at 16,705 yuan/mt, down 0.03%, forming a small bearish candlestick with no upper or lower shadows. Consumption side, the lead-acid battery market remained in the off-season, but with the holiday factor removed, downstream enterprises will resume purchasing as needed. Supply side, secondary lead enterprises cut production, and regional supply of lead ingots was tight, while primary lead production was stable to slightly higher with relatively ample supply. This week, attention should be paid to the impact of delivery on circulating supplies. Lead prices are expected to have limited discounts (against SMM #1 lead). Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

According to the latest data from China's General Administration of Customs (compiled by SMM), the import and export of refined lead and lead alloys in March 2026 were as follows: China's refined lead exports totaled 3,190 mt, down 36.83% MoM and up 12.78% YoY. From January to March, combined exports of refined lead and lead products totaled 12,950 mt, down 23.43% YoY on a cumulative basis.