SMM News, July 31: According to SMM statistics, total outside-China aluminum production in July 2026 fell 6.7% YoY, mainly due to a YoY decline in operating rates at Middle East aluminum smelters. Outside-China daily average production rebounded 1.6% MoM, mainly driven by ongoing production resumptions at smelters in the Middle East and Iceland, as well as output increases brought by project ramp-ups and power-on commissioning in Indonesia, Vietnam, and other locations. In July, there were many updates on operating aluminum capacity outside China. The details are as follows: On July 1, an announcement on Hydro’s official website showed that the Slovalco aluminum smelter had reached an agreement with the Slovak government, allowing it to resume production of 75,000 mt of aluminum capacity, with production expected to start in 2026 Q4. On July 2, according to overseas media reports, Magnitude 7 Metals will restart the No. 1 potline at its aluminum smelter in Marston, Missouri, adding 75,000 mt/year of primary aluminum capacity by the end of 2026. On July 2, EGA announced that its plant in Al Taweelah had made progress in restoring production: anode removal for all pots had been fully completed; pot cleaning was about 90% complete; and solidified aluminum blocks in over 20% of pots had been cleared. On May 26, the first repaired pot was successfully restarted; as of July 2, 89 pots were in operation (1,262 pots in total). On July 3, Vedanta Aluminium released a production report showing that in FY27 (2026 Q2), aluminum production at the Balco smelter reached 168,000 mt, up 10% QoQ and up 17% YoY, mainly benefiting from trial production output from expanded capacity. On July 15, Rio Tinto released its Q2 results report, noting continued capacity increases at Kitimat, NZAS, and AP60. The last two potlines at the Arvida aluminum smelter were closed as planned in June, and Arvida AP60 is expected to reach full production by year-end. On July 16, Alcoa released its Q2 results report. Its production reached 636,000 mt, up 5% QoQ, mainly benefiting from the completion of production resumptions at the San Ciprián smelter in Spain, ongoing production resumptions at the Alumar smelter in Brazil, and the completion of production resumptions at the Lista smelter in Norway and the Portland smelter in Australia. Looking ahead to August 2026, production resumptions in the Middle East are expected to continue; new projects previously commissioned in Indonesia and Vietnam are expected to continue ramping up production; and Balco’s expanded capacity in India is expected to continue ramping up. Although the Middle East conflict has flared up again, market feedback indicates it has not affected smelter production again. Overall, outside-China aluminum production is expected to maintain the MoM growth trend in the short term. However, recent market rumors suggest that construction progress for some aluminum projects in the Middle East and Indonesia has fallen short of expectations, and continued attention should be paid to subsequent announcements from relevant smelters in the Middle East, Indonesia, and India. [Data Source Statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM (Guo Mingxin 021-20707919)

[China Inventory Continued to Decline This Week, Aluminum Prices Show LME Outperforms SHFE in the Short Term] China inventory continued to decline this week but at a modest pace, limiting the upside elasticity of SHFE aluminum, with the divergence between domestic and overseas markets expected to persist in the short term. Key areas to watch going forward include whether China inventory destocking accelerates, whether the US-Iran deal can be formally signed, further clarity on the US Fed's rate path, and whether China is further tightening regulations on aluminum capacity operations. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to continue moving sideways in the short term, with LME outperforming SHFE.

SMM News, March 31: According to SMM statistics, China aluminum production in March 2026 (31 days) was up 1.6% YoY and up 10.7% MoM. This was mainly driven by the recovery in calendar days and the gradual resumption of work and production by downstream enterprises after the Chinese New Year. Operating rates across downstream sectors generally increased, and the proportion of liquid aluminum also rebounded, up about 9.3 percentage points MoM to 73.7%, above expectations at the beginning of the month. The main reason was that some aluminum plants saw considerable liquid aluminum sales, while sentiment for casting ingot was weaker than expected at the beginning of the month. Based on SMM data on the proportion of liquid aluminum, China aluminum casting ingot production in March was up 5.3% YoY and down 18.1% MoM. Capacity changes: As of month-end March, SMM statistics showed that China existing aluminum capacity was about 46.209 million mt, with no MoM change. Production forecast: Entering April 2026, as the peak season deepens, downstream enterprises are expected to see gradually stronger demand for primary aluminum. The proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to edge higher. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise by 1.8 percentage points to 75.5%. [Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.] Source: SMM