[Aluminum Inventory Buildup and Long-Term Capacity Commissioning; Geopolitical Premium Underpins Aluminum Price Rebound with Limited Room] Overall, the macro front has improved recently. The marginal constraint on the non-ferrous metals sector from expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes staying put has weakened. The proportion of liquid aluminum in China has continued to rise, and the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East persists. These factors have jointly underpinned aluminum prices, and short-term market confidence has recovered somewhat. However, long-term aluminum capacity continues to come online outside China, traditional end-use demand in China remains weak during the traditional off-season, coupled with fluctuating expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes outside China and ongoing uncertainties in the Middle East geopolitical situation. Aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note, but upside resistance remains.

[New 301 Tariffs Strike, Limited Upside Room for Aluminum Prices in the Short Term] Overall forecast: recently macro front sentiment has slightly improved, with sustained geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East and China’s continued destocking of aluminum ingots jointly supporting aluminum prices. However, the continuous addition of long-term aluminum capacity outside China, weak traditional end-use demand in China, coupled with repeated macro perspective uncertainties, put obvious pressure on the upside room for aluminum prices, and in the short term, aluminum prices will maintain a consolidation pattern.

Overall, amid the structural adjustment of shifting demand across global regions, China’s prebaked anode exports could offset the pressure from weakening demand in traditional markets through market structure optimization and a shift in the center of orders, coupled with its own capacity and supply chain advantages. Full-year China prebaked anode exports are expected to maintain a certain increase.