Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt, fluctuating downward during the Asian session; it dipped to $1,948.5/mt upon entering the European session, but then rose due to a weakening US dollar index, touching a high of $1,976.5/mt before finally settling at $1,974.5/mt. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,665 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,560 yuan/mt early in the session, then rebounded as bears reduced positions, reaching a high of 16,680 yuan/mt before finally settling at 16,665 yuan/mt, up 0.48%, forming a doji star. On the macro front: As markets awaited a series of US economic data, a weaker US dollar made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to overseas buyers; spot gold extended gains. The White House's Hassett predicted worsening employment: AI boosts productivity, reduces labor demand. Alphabet planned to raise about $15 billion by issuing US dollar bonds. China's Ministry of Commerce held a symposium with automakers: Multiple measures to promote the expansion and quality improvement of auto consumption. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing. Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security provided administrative guidance on employment to leading platform companies and courier firms. Three departments including the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on tax incentives for re-exported cross-border e-commerce goods. : SHFE lead stopped falling and stabilized, but as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, logistics vehicles halted in some regions, leading to reduced shipments and quotations from suppliers. Only some cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In the secondary lead sector, more smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, with most enterprises suspending quotations; a few secondary refined lead offers were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end wrap-up phase, with minimal inquiries, resulting in thin trading in the spot market. Inventory: On February 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 100 mt to 232,750 mt. As of February 9, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions rose to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: With previously in-transit lead ingots by rail concentratedly arriving at warehouses, social inventory of lead ingots increased significantly, mainly reflected in Jiangsu and Zhejiang region warehouses. Last week, lead prices fell, prompting lead-acid battery enterprises to conduct relatively concentrated stockpiling of lead ingots, leading to a noticeable decline in lead smelters' in-factory inventory. This week being the last before the Chinese New Year, the final batch of lead-acid battery enterprises will enter the holiday state, further weakening lead consumption. Meanwhile, with the start of the Spring Festival travel season, migrant workers have returned to their hometowns, and the number of vehicles in operation has gradually decreased. Currently, some regions no longer support road transportation. It is expected that the growth momentum of social inventory for lead ingots will slow down, and the inventory buildup of lead ingots is anticipated to be more reflected in the smelters' plant inventories. Overall, lead prices are in the doldrums ahead of the holiday. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Analysis: Primary Aluminum Billets Operation in January Weaker Than Expectations, February Production May Hit a Nearly Four-Year Low] Domestic primary aluminum billets operation in January performed weaker than expectations. According to SMM data...

SMM February 13: SHFE aluminum 2602 fluctuated downward in the morning session, with the price center lower than the previous trading day. Some enterprises were already on Chinese New Year break, overall market sentiment was weak, and mainstream quotations concentrated at the average price to a premium of 50 yuan/mt. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the east China market was 2, down 0.21 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.07, down 0.27 WoW. SMM A00 aluminum was quoted at 23,160 yuan/mt, down 190 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 120 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; at a discount of 190 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract. Trading in the central China market remained sluggish today. On the last trading day before the Chinese New Year, pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream processing enterprises had basically ended, with only a small amount of just-in-time procurement. Most traders had already entered the Chinese New Year holiday, resulting in limited spot aluminum supply in the market. Only a few traders engaged in buying the dip for stockpiling. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from a premium of 400 yuan/mt to a premium of 60 yuan/mt against the central China price. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the central China market was 2.25, down 0.18 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 1.9, down 0.19 WoW. SMM central China closed at 23,080 yuan/mt, down 180 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 200 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SMM central China closed at 23,080 yuan/mt, down 180 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 200 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 8,000 mt WoW today, with all three regions showing inventory buildup. In the short term, high aluminum prices may continue to suppress end-use demand, coupled with the impact of the downstream Chinese New Year break, aluminum ingots still face inventory buildup risks, and spot premiums/discounts are expected to remain under pressure.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: AI Concerns Triggered a Broad Decline in Risk Assets, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure and in the Doldrums] Overall, the bullish sentiment in the nonferrous metals market cooled down, coupled with high inventory pressure on the fundamentals, aluminum prices were in the doldrums this week. During the Chinese New Year holiday, the domestic market was closed, while the LME market continued trading. Be cautious of fluctuations in the macro market and the LME market during the holiday, which may cause volatility in aluminum prices after the holiday.

In summary, during the 2026 Chinese New Year period, the five segments of the aluminum industry chain exhibited differentiated operational trends.

As of February 12, 2026, LME zinc ingot inventory continued to decline to 103,500 mt, while the LME Cash-3M contango narrowed from over $40/mt in January to below $20/mt. At the same time, due to the Chinese New Year holiday, many downstream zinc enterprises suspended operations, leading to a continued buildup in domestic zinc ingot inventory to over 160,000 mt.