[SMM Analysis] The Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Steel Exports Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

On May 9, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 9.498 million mt of steel in April 2026, up 363,000 mt MoM, a 4.0% increase MoM; cumulative steel exports from January to April totaled 34.214 million mt, down 9.7% YoY. In April 2026, China imported 465,000 mt of steel, down 47,000 mt MoM, a 9.2% decrease MoM; cumulative steel imports from January to April totaled 1.804 million mt, down 13.4% YoY. China's Steel Exports Continued to Increase MoM in April According to SMM's April export schedule survey, HRC export plans for the month were 851,000 mt, up 67,000 mt from actual exports in March, an 8.5% increase MoM. Meanwhile, SMM export order data showed that as production gradually resumed in March and ex-China demand recovered somewhat, combined with the semi-finished products gap caused by the US-Iran conflict, China leveraged its perfect price advantage and superior geographical location to effectively capture Southeast Asian semi-finished products import demand. This led to export orders increasing by over 30% MoM in March. However, since the incremental data was mostly semi-finished products, the impact may become more apparent when the late-month product-specific data is released. China's Steel Imports Increased MoM in March Import side, from January to March, China's cumulative steel imports totaled 1.804 million mt, down 13.4% YoY; net steel exports reached 32.41 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook According to S&P Global data, the global manufacturing PMI in April 2026 was 52.6%, up 1.3 percentage points MoM, operating above 50% for 13 consecutive months. The US was in strong expansion territory, and other European and American countries were also in expansion territory. In April, China's manufacturing new export orders index was 50.3%, up 4.1 percentage points MoM, finally returning to expansion territory after 24 months. World Steel Association monitoring data showed that global crude steel production in March 2026 fell 4.2% YoY to 159.9 million mt. China's production pullback was mainly driven by steel mills proactively cutting production as profits were squeezed. Excluding China, global production in other regions also declined 0.55% MoM, with significant divergence in production schedule pace across regions. In markets outside China, India maintained high production schedules, boosted by fiscal year-end target sprints, up 9.4% YoY. In contrast, the Middle East (particularly Iran) saw production plunge 33.5% YoY. The continued contraction in Middle Eastern production has created structural opportunities for China's steel exports, particularly semi-finished products exports. As of May 8, 2026, HRC export prices (FOB) for India, Turkey, and the CIS were $507/mt, $640/mt, and $525/mt respectively, while China's HRC export price (FOB) was $507/mt. Currently, China's HRC export prices were -$73/mt, -$133/mt, and -$18/mt compared to these countries respectively. The price spread advantage showed no significant change MoM. Overall, China's steel export price advantage remains significant. Chart 1 - Global Major Market HRC Prices Based on SMM's latest steel mill export order schedule, HRC export plans for this month were 1.1435 million mt, up 213,500 mt from actual exports last month, a 23% increase MoM. According to SMM steel export order data, affected by holidays, steel export orders in April weakened slightly by 0.57% MoM from March. However, it was also learned that shipping to the Middle East is gradually recovering, with some cargo currently being unloaded at Fujairah Port in the UAE and then transported overland to other Middle Eastern countries. Slab orders destined for Southeast Asia also increased notably in April, with shipping dates mostly in May-June. Taking all factors into consideration, with the new export orders index returning to expansion territory, export price advantages remaining significant, and strong export order performance, SMM expects China's steel exports to continue increasing in May, with semi-finished products continuing to contribute the dominant force! Chart 2 - SMM Steel Export Order Volume Note: This article is original content of this official account. For reprinting, whitelisting, or cooperation needs, please contact us. Without permission, the content above shall not be reprinted, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or disclosed to third parties in any other form, nor shall third parties be licensed to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will take legal measures to pursue infringement liability, including but not limited to demanding contractual breach liability, return of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses.

[SMM Steel] In April 2026, China exported 9.498 million mt of steel, an increase of 363,000 mt MoM, up 4.0% MoM; cumulative steel exports from January to April totaled 34.214 million mt, down 9.7% YoY. In April, China imported 465,000 mt of steel, a decrease of 47,000 mt MoM, down 9.2% MoM; cumulative steel imports from January to April totaled 1.804 million mt, down 13.4% YoY.

SMM Express: China's steel export prices remained stable today, with most shipments scheduled for May to June. Intraday market inquiries were active, and HRC order-taking also improved recently, with most deals concluded at $480-485/mt, while some transactions in North China were closed at $475/mt. Billet performance remained steady, while slab trading volume saw a significant increase, mostly concentrated among private enterprises.

[SMM Steel Import and Export Special Topic] Outward Leap Under Domestic Demand Restructuring: A Panoramic Analysis of the Deep-Seated Logic Behind China's Steel Export Surge in 2025(Prat2) Capacity Spillover Along the Silk Road Reshapes Export Landscape Among the top 10 countries by total steel exports from China in 2025, although exports to Vietnam declined, the volume still firmly held the top spot among export destinations. The reason for the decline is a familiar one—anti-dumping measures imposed by Vietnam on Chinese HRC in 2025. Notably, according to an SMM survey, Vietnam's anti-circumvention findings on wide steel coil from China are also expected to be finalized in February–March 2026, and the market currently views the likelihood of anti-circumvention implementation as high, with exporters already seeing a significant drop in orders. Therefore, it is reasonably predicted that subsequent HRC exports from China to Vietnam will decline sharply. However, considering Vietnam's domestic large-scale infrastructure projects, such as canals, hotels, and special economic zones, which still create rigid demand for construction rebar and wire rod, Vietnam is expected to remain one of China's major export destinations over the next 3–5 years. Similarly, other ASEAN countries such as the Philippines (7.28 million mt), Indonesia (7.11 million mt), and Thailand (6.9 million mt) are also in a phase of rapid urbanization. Due to the relatively high cost of steel production via electric furnaces in their local markets, these countries still rely on cost-effective ordinary steel from China. Particularly in the Philippines, where trade barriers are currently relatively low, it remains a major market for China's cold-rolled and galvanized steel exports in the short term, with total volume expected to have further upside potential. Data Source: General Administration of Customs、SMM Looking back at the countries with the highest YoY increments and growth rates in China's exports from 2024 to 2025, emerging bright spots in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, stand out. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's steel export value to Saudi Arabia surged by 41% YoY, the most significant growth rate among China's major export destination markets. This was driven by new city construction and energy transition projects under Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030," which spurred substantial consumption of steel pipes and long products for infrastructure. Meanwhile, Africa and Latin America have become new blue oceans. In addition to the local construction reasons mentioned earlier, "reverse diversion" due to trade frictions also played a role. For example, impacts from the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and high US tariffs have forced Chinese steel to withdraw from high-barrier markets like North America and flow into these regions with relatively lower trade resistance. Data Source: General Administration of Customs、SMM A background analysis of Djibouti and Senegal, which achieved high growth in both YoY growth rate and total volume, reveals that Djibouti serves as a "transit hub" for global trade and a gateway for infrastructure. Its growth primarily stems from its unique geographical location and strategic transformation as the "Gateway to East Africa." With recent changes in the Red Sea situation, Djibouti, as a critical node connecting Asia with Europe and Africa, has seen a surge in demand for port storage and transshipment facility construction. Senegal, on the other hand, is experiencing accelerated industrialization driven by energy discoveries. Its rapid growth is closely tied to large-scale oil and gas development and transportation infrastructure. 2024 was a pivotal year for Senegal to join the ranks of "oil and gas producers." Projects such as the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim gas field require large quantities of high-grade steel pipes, steel for drilling platforms, and storage facilities. Through this project, Senegal is moving towards a new stage of energy independence, consolidating its key role in the global energy transition. Data Source: General Administration of Customs、SMM Dual-track Progress of "Quality Improvement" in Finished Products and "Volume Expansion" in Semi-finished Products Data Source: General Administration of Customs、SMM The breakdown of China's steel exports in 2025 reveals a core characteristic: extreme polarization among product categories, reflecting the dual impact of the global manufacturing center's shift and trade protection barriers.① The total export volume of coated and galvanized sheets exceeded 31.09 million mt, making it the largest single category in China's steel exports and an undeniable "ballast stone" in the export product landscape. Coated and galvanized sheets (such as galvanized sheets, color-coated sheets, etc.) are widely used in home appliances, solar panel mounting brackets, and light steel structure infrastructure, and China has developed strong industry chain completeness and scale-related cost advantages in this field. Southeast Asian countries, represented by the Philippines, heavily rely on coated and galvanized coils for their demand for roof sheets and light steel keels during urbanization. Additionally, due to their geographical location and climate, local buildings require extensive use of color-coated sheets and galvanized sheets with strong corrosion resistance and good sealing properties for roofs and wall materials to withstand strong winds and rain erosion. Moreover, these materials wear out quickly, leading not only to new construction demand but also substantial maintenance and replacement needs for existing stock.② HRC exports pulled back from 29.88 million mt in 2024 to 24.44 million mt in 2025. The year 2025 also marked the most severe period for Chinese HRC facing trade barriers. As the "primary target" of global anti-dumping investigations, policy tightening in key destinations like Vietnam and Turkey forced exporters to voluntarily reduce volumes or engage in re-exporting. In 2025 alone, HRC faced up to six anti-dumping investigations, and major export destinations such as Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, and Brazil implemented relevant measures. Furthermore, the previous practice of exporting as alloy steel by "adding boron/chromium" was gradually blocked by multiple countries through "anti-circumvention investigations." SMM reasonably predicts that if HRC export volume is to be maintained in 2026, it will rely more on markets like Saudi Arabia, which have not initiated large-scale anti-dumping cases and have strong infrastructure demand, rather than the traditional ASEAN red ocean. ③ Steel pipes maintained steady growth, reaching 13.36 million mt, driven by oil and gas pipeline projects in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as water conveyance projects in North Africa, which provided stable long-term contract orders for China's seamless and welded pipes. Regarding steel billets, relevant introductions have been provided earlier, and in-depth analysis of their core drivers will continue in upcoming features. Stay tuned to SMM Steel Industry Research... Bonus at the end: The steel industry has its own ups and downs. SMM cordially invites you to participate in the "2026 Steel Export Varieties and Market Outlook Survey." Your feedback will serve as the core data source for our next in-depth report. Click the link below, and let’s work together to identify the most certain growth points in this "100-million-ton era"! https://v.wjx.cn/vm/wEwxM3V.aspx Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

Over the past five years, China's steel exports have undergone a qualitative transformation from "volatile recovery" to "structural surge." From 2021 to 2022, exports remained within the traditional range of 60-70 million mt. However, starting in 2023, the export growth curve steepened sharply. In 2025, the total broad exports, including steel billet, reached a new high of 134 million mt, with a YoY growth rate of 14%. The underlying driver of this explosive growth is the long-term mismatch between domestic supply and demand. As the real estate sector entered a period of deep adjustment, domestic apparent consumption continued to shrink. However, due to the inertia and economies of scale in steel production processes, China's crude steel production did not decline proportionally. This "supply-demand scissors gap" forced Chinese resources to flow overseas, seeking markets with higher prices, greater profits, and more robust demand.