The EU's temporary steel safeguard expired at end-June 2026 and a permanent TRQ took its place — duty-free volume nearly halved to about 18.35 Mt, the out-of-quota duty doubled to 50%, and a first-ever "melt and pour" origin rule. Using the official allocations, this piece breaks the quota down category by category and country by country: HRC alone claims about 5.2 million tonnes, Türkiye takes the largest share, Taiwan, China is squeezed hardest — and CBAM stacks a second barrier on top.

In 2026 the EU's CBAM crossed from "report-only" into a phase where importers pay real money. This piece lays out the five newly-landed implementing regulations, the timetable and thresholds, and — using hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, coated sheet and other flagship traded steels as its sample — draws a cost map from the official country default values. For the same coil of HRC, Indonesia's carbon cost is about 581 EUR/tonne while the USA's is about 15 EUR/tonne: a near-40× gap.

Data released by the online customs statistics query platform show that China's imports of copper cathode in June 2026 were 333,070.07 mt, up 5.37% MoM and down 1.18% YoY. China imported 154,839.76 mt of copper cathode from DRC in June, up 20.39% MoM and up 30.91% YoY. China imported 35,738.03 mt of copper cathode from Russia in June, up 19.72% MoM and down 20.85% YoY. On the export side, China's exports of copper cathode in June 2026 were 48,500.09 mt, up 144.25% MoM and down 38.62% YoY. China exported 25,104.69 mt of copper cathode to the US in June, down 22.93% YoY. China exported 9,977.04 mt of copper cathode to Thailand in June, up 30.20% MoM and up 57.20% YoY. The following table provides a breakdown of exports data compiled from the official website of the General Administration of Customs of China: Destination June 2026 (mt) MoM YoY US 25,104.69 - -22.93% Thailand 9,977.04 30.20% 57.20% Taiwan, China 4,709.75 7.09% -53.44% Vietnam 3,852.56 -16.25% -62.84% Indonesia 2,298.32 34.99% 228.49% Malaysia 2,145.89 329.89% 273.09% Japan 399.25 32.94% - Djibouti 12.57 - - Total 48,500.09 144.25% -38.62% Source: General Administration of Customs (Wenhua Composite)

[Turkey] Turkish domestic HRC prices accelerated downward this week as mainstream ex-works offers officially breached the 600 USD/tonne threshold, dropping by 10 USD/tonne to 590 USD/tonne EXW. Meanwhile, export quotes edged down by 5 USD/tonne to 580 USD/tonne FOB. Persistent friction in exporting to Europe has forced many local mills to redirect export volumes back to the home market, intensifying domestic supply pressure. Currently, mainstream mills are primarily booking September production, with select sellers even offering prompt allocations for late-August delivery. Concurrently, Turkish HRC volumes cleared into the EU this quarter have surpassed 370,000 tonnes, far exceeding the formal quarterly quota of 160,574 tonnes. As some importers attempt to re-declare shipments under separate free trade agreement allocations, the final tariff rate remains uncertain. Consequently, mills have begun rushing to secure forward bookings, with a recent export sale to Greece confirmed for October shipment at 580–585 USD/tonne FOB.

The European Commission established a new steel trade regime with a total annual tariff quota volume of 18.35 million metric tons (mt) distributed across 26 product categories, with half allocated exclusively to free trade agreement (FTA) partners. Category 1A (hot-rolled sheets and strips) represents nearly one-third of the total volume at roughly 5.2 million mt, a significant reduction from 7.7 million mt in the previous quota year. Turkey received the largest Category 1A country-specific quota (CSQ) at 642,295 mt, followed by India (597,274 mt) and Japan (551,539 mt), while quotas for cold-rolled coil (Category 4A) and metallic coated sheets were sharply slashed to 1.5 million mt and 1.6 million mt, respectively. The steep reduction in volume allowances, particularly in flat products, highlights a protectionist pivot designed to shield European producers from import influxes amidst structurally weak domestic demand.

Data from the online customs statistics query platform showed that China's copper cathode imports in April 2026 totaled 315,798.48 mt, up 13.04% MoM and up 5.20% YoY. China imported 147,428.95 mt of copper cathode from the DRC in April, up 48.72% MoM and up 29.56% YoY. China imported 24,309.19 mt of copper cathode from Russia in April, down 51.38% MoM and down 4.86% YoY. Export side, China's copper cathode exports in April 2026 totaled 25,605.82 mt, down 56.01% MoM and down 67.05% YoY. China exported 8,545 mt of copper cathode to Thailand in April, down 10.06% MoM and down 33.74% YoY. Below is a breakdown of export data compiled from the General Administration of Customs website: Destination April 2026 (mt) MoM YoY Thailand 8545.00 -10.06% -33.74% Taiwan, China 6495.34 -68.73% 4.84% Vietnam 4066.94 -72.57% -60.37% Malaysia 3098.77 -29.13% 674.63% Indonesia 1998.63 42.45% 566.47% South Korea 551.42 -88.92% -93.31% Bangladesh 499.78 -1.00% - Pakistan 199.94 -63.55% -19.91% Singapore 149.97 - -92.11% UK 0.02 63.64% 260.00% Total 25605.82 -56.01% -67.05% Data source: General Administration of Customs (Wenhua Comprehensive)