In the short term, overseas geopolitical conflict headlines continued, increasing uncertainty in energy-sector price fluctuations, while domestic macro conditions still had expectations for policy tailwinds. Back to steel fundamentals, as downstream procurement demand release remained relatively cautious and the destocking inflection-point cycle had not yet emerged, finished steel lacked strong drivers. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, tracking cost trends. After the Two Sessions conclude in mid-to-late month, if demand still fails to drive a rapid drawdown in inventory, steel prices face the risk of a pressured pullback.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: The US Fed Held Rates Unchanged, and LME Zinc Came Under Pressure] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,220.5/mt. In early trading, LME zinc briefly rose to a high of $3,227/mt, after which bulls reduced their positions, and LME zinc fluctuated downward throughout the session, hitting a low of $3,130/mt near the close. It finally closed down at $3,132.5/mt, a decrease of $100.5/mt, or 3.11%. Trading volume increased to 16,556 lots, and open interest fell by 6,295 lots to 208,000 lots.

[SMM HRC & CRC Production Schedule Report: Impact of Maintenance, March Daily Average Production of CRC and HRC Both Pulled Back] According to the latest tracking by SMM, the planned production volume of commercial CRC by 31 mainstream steel mills in March totaled 4.2753 million mt, an increase of 52,900 mt (up 1.3%) compared to the actual CRC production in February. On a daily average basis, with three more days in March than February, the daily planned production volume was 137,900 mt, down 8.5% MoM from the actual daily average production in February. According to the latest tracking by SMM, the planned production volume of commercial HRC by 39 mainstream steel mills in March totaled 13.5438 million mt, a decrease of 203,700 mt (down 1.5%) compared to the actual HRC production in February. On a daily average basis, with three more days in March than February, the daily planned production volume of HRC was 436,900 mt, down 54,100 mt (down 11.0% MoM) from the actual daily average production in February.

[SMM HRC & CRC Production Schedule Report: Strong Orders, February HRC and CRC Daily Production Both Increase!] According to the latest tracking by SMM, the planned February HRC commercial material output from 39 mainstream steel mills totals 13.8055 million mt, down 316,600 mt or 2.2% from the actual HRC commercial material production in January. On a daily average basis, the planned February HRC commercial material output is 493,100 mt/day, up 37,500 mt or 8.2% from the actual daily average HRC production in January. According to the latest tracking by SMM, the planned February CRC commercial material output from 31 mainstream steel mills totals 4.2424 million mt, down 60,600 mt or 1.4% from the actual CRC commercial material production in January. On a daily average basis, due to fewer days in February, the planned daily average output is 151,500 mt, up 9.2% MoM from the actual daily average production in January.

【SMM HRC & CRC Production Schedule】— Maintenance Decline & Moderate Profits, April HRC Production Schedule Increases as Expected! According to the latest SMM tracking, the planned HRC commodity material production of 39 mainstream steel mills in April totaled 13.9629 million mt, an increase of 296,100 mt compared to the actual HRC commodity material production in March, a rise of 2.2%. On a daily average basis, with April having one fewer day than March, the planned HRC commodity material production in April was 465,400 mt/day, an increase of 24,600 mt compared to the actual daily average HRC commodity material production in March, a rise of 5.6%.

The price spread between cold and hot-rolled products widened slightly in January, mainly because the prices of HRC fell after hitting high.