[After platinum surged to a high of $1,300 and then corrected, it has risen by 40% this year, still emphasizing its industrial attributes] ①After gold prices have accumulated a certain increase, platinum prices are considered undervalued in comparison, offering investment value. ②The demand for platinum in hydrogen energy applications exhibits significant growth elasticity, and the industrial demand for platinum will maintain a stable growth pattern, but the incremental space may become limited as traditional industries slow down. (Finance Link)

Driven by multiple positive factors, most Hong Kong-listed gold stocks strengthened. As of press time, Qomolangma Gold (01815.HK), Chifeng Gold (06693.HK), Zijin Mining (02899.HK), and Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) rose by 13.22%, 7.60%, 7%, and 6.59%, respectively. Note: Performance of gold stocks On the news front, the UK, France, and Canada jointly pressured Israel to pause its military operations in Gaza, with the UK announcing the suspension of trade agreement negotiations with Israel. Additionally, reports indicated that US intelligence had discovered that Israel was planning to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. The escalating geopolitical tensions directly stimulated market risk-averse sentiment. Currently, COMEX gold prices have broken through the $3,300 mark, rising 0.68% as of press time, to trade at $3,335. Note: Performance of COMEX gold In addition to the above news, the fundamentals of gold are strongly supported. Surge in China's imports: In April, China's gold imports reached 127.5 mt, surging 73% MoM, hitting an 11-month high, reflecting robust domestic investment and consumer demand. Global central banks' gold purchases continue: The World Gold Council pointed out that in April, the Shanghai gold price denominated in RMB rose by 6.9%, the highest for the same period in nearly 19 years. Central banks' continuous gold purchases provide support for long-term prices. How do institutions view the subsequent performance of gold prices? In a recent report, Goldman Sachs' precious metals team maintained its forecast targets of $3,700/oz for gold prices by the end of 2025 and $4,000/oz by mid-2026. This judgment is based on two core factors: The combined impact of the US Fed's delayed interest rate cut and the decreased probability of an economic recession (the probability of a recession in the next 12 months falling from 45% to 35%) on the 2026 target price is only $15/oz, with the terminal interest rate expectation still anchored at 3.5%-3.75%; the mild shift of private sector asset allocation towards gold offsets the slight negative impact of improved cyclical macroeconomic conditions. Founder Securities believes that the current gold price is already at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, with the recent easing of external events such as the trade war, it may trigger some investors to take profits at high levels or central banks to slow down their gold purchases in the short term, leading to a phased correction in gold prices. However, from a medium and long-term perspective, against the backdrop of a declining US dollar credit, the initiation of the US Fed's interest rate cut cycle, and the continuous increase in gold purchases by global central banks, gold is expected to continue its long-term upward trend after short-term adjustments.

Today, COMEX gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,371.9 per ounce, and as of press time, the price was $3,343.2. However, the overall trend of COMEX gold over the past year remains very impressive. In the domestic market, the prices of pure gold from major gold brands also reached new highs today, with many brands breaking through 1,020 yuan per gram. Against this backdrop, gold ETFs, which are convenient and flexible for trading, have also been gaining popularity. As of April 16, the total scale of the four largest gold ETF products in China reached 122.947 billion yuan, with an increase of 58.877 billion yuan this year alone. According to Ant Fund data, by the end of Q1, the average holding period of gold ETF funds by users reached 1,570 days, with over 7.6 million users starting regular investments. Meanwhile, the number of user searches for "gold" in Q1 increased by 206% YoY. As gold prices climbed, Ant Fund continued to remind investors to be aware of volatility risks and to hold and invest rationally. Some fund managers also proposed solutions to the dilemma faced by investors who want to invest in gold but are concerned about high-level risks, such as periodic investments or viewing the issue from an asset allocation perspective to pursue stable overall asset returns, including combinations like gold + stocks, gold + bonds, and gold + QDII. Gold ETF Scale Hits Record High, Over 2 Million Investors Engage in Regular Investments Amid escalating trade frictions and the loosening of US dollar credibility, gold prices have surged to a record high, becoming a clear sign of global capital seeking safe havens. As of April 16, London spot gold broke through $3,300 per ounce, marking a 36.47% increase over the past year. In this context, gold ETFs have also gradually reached new highs. According to Shanghai Exchange data, by the end of Q1, the scale of domestic on-exchange and off-exchange gold ETFs reached 101.988 billion yuan, up 185% YoY. As of April 16, the total scale of the four largest gold ETF products in China reached 122.947 billion yuan, with an increase of 58.877 billion yuan this year alone. Among them, Huaan Gold ETF saw its shares increase by 2.74 billion this year, reaching 7.589 billion, a growth of over 56.48%. Its latest scale has reached 56.923 billion yuan, with an increase of 28.247 billion yuan this year, making it the undisputed leading product in the gold ETF field. During the same period, Bosera Gold ETF saw its shares increase by 897 million this year, reaching 3.438 billion. Its latest scale reached 25.747 billion yuan, with an increase of 10.743 billion yuan this year. E Fund and Guotai Gold ETFs also saw their shares increase by 921 million and 1.02 billion this year, reaching 3.185 billion and 2.242 billion, respectively. Their current scales are 23.658 billion yuan and 10.41 billion yuan, with increases of 10.41 billion yuan and 9.477 billion yuan this year, respectively. Additionally, the latest scales of ChinaAMC, ICBC Credit Suisse, and Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETFs also totaled over 7 billion yuan. Huaan Gold ETF Scale Grows Over 35 Billion Yuan in the Past Year Affected by market conditions, the investment habits of gold ETF users are gradually changing. Ant Fund data shows that by the end of Q1, the average holding period of gold ETF funds by users reached 1,570 days, with over 7.6 million users choosing long-term regular investments. Additionally, nearly 80% of gold ETF users also hold equity funds, bond funds, or other products like Yu'ebao, initially establishing a concept of diversified allocation. From the perspective of fund companies, whether it is the stagflation risk that tariff events may pose to the economy or the US disrupting the international order and accelerating the collapse of US dollar credibility, gold assets are likely to effectively hedge against such risks. Therefore, after last week's panic selling in the capital markets, international gold prices have rebounded to new highs, being the only major asset to hit new highs after the tariff impact, objectively indicating the current global capital market's recognition of gold's value. Whether it is capital market investors or non-US central banks, the demand for gold assets is likely to continue. Gold Price Surge, Platforms Warn of Risks As gold prices continue to soar, gold ETF distribution platforms like Ant Fund have also been warning of price volatility risks, advocating rational holding of gold and avoiding frequent trading. "Gold ETFs have a low investment threshold, flexible trading, and no storage costs, making them very suitable for ordinary investors," said a gold industry insider. Physical gold is recognized as a hard currency, but gold bars, gold beans, etc., face storage and wear issues, and jewelry gold includes processing fees, making it more expensive, with the recovery price often much lower than the purchase price, making the investment cost not low. Although Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold forecast to $3,700 per ounce, the above-mentioned person analyzed that short-term price fluctuations in gold cannot be ignored, and investors need to guard against risks, buy in batches, and reasonably control positions. Gu Fanding, manager of CITIC-Prudential Global Commodity Theme Fund, believes that gold is still a relatively superior asset, but compared to last year, volatility may increase, which may come from three aspects: First, the US Fed's monetary policy. Last year was the process of the US Fed ending rate hikes and starting rate cuts, with relatively consistent market expectations, but this year the pace of rate cuts may still have significant differences. Second, the direction of the overseas economy. Last year's economic slowdown and marginal decline in inflation were relatively certain, but this year, due to Trump's various reform policies, the uncertainty of the economy and inflation may increase. Third, geopolitical issues. Last year, geopolitical issues did not ease, but this year, although signs of easing have appeared, whether tensions will re-emerge after easing has become uncertain. Ye Peipei, manager of China Europe Fund, also noted that in the short term, the probability of further escalation of overall trade frictions is decreasing, and both recession sentiment and de-dollarization sentiment have shown signs of stabilizing. Therefore, it can be considered that the stage of rapid upward movement in gold prices in the short term may have ended, and subsequent gold prices may show a fluctuating trend, requiring observation of how the trade situation further evolves. "Currently, the risk in the gold market is still the short-term tariff disturbance sentiment warming up. From a speculative perspective, as of April 8, the number of non-commercial long positions in COMEX has decreased significantly from the high, and speculative sentiment is not actually robust," said Ye Peipei. How to Break the Dilemma of Investment Choices? Currently, with gold prices remaining high, investors face the dilemma of wanting to invest but being concerned about high-level risks. How to break this dilemma? Gu Fanding believes there are two investment ideas: The first is periodic investments. In the context of major global changes, gold assets have relatively higher certainty of returns in the medium and long term. If it is difficult to grasp short-term fluctuations, periodic investments can be made to reduce short-term uncertainty while striving to retain the certainty of long-term returns. The second is to view the issue from an asset allocation perspective. The current global economic and political environment faces significant uncertainty, and various assets may be entering a period of amplified volatility. At this time, controlling the risk of the overall asset is much more important than seeking short-term returns from a single asset. For example, many investors now consider allocating gold assets while investing in stocks and bonds as a form of "insurance" for other assets. Additionally, in recent years, many investors may also allocate some QDII funds, which is actually a more diversified investment strategy to pursue stable overall asset returns. Guotai Fund also believes that from an asset allocation perspective, gold has low correlation with stocks and bonds, making it suitable for inclusion in investment portfolios to smooth portfolio volatility. Taking gold + stocks as an example, historical data shows that in years when equity assets suffer significant losses, gold can provide good returns to hedge against stock risks. From 2005 to 2024, the CSI 300 Total Return Index experienced significant losses in certain years, such as 2008, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2018, 2022, and 2023. In these years, spot gold performed well, except for a slight loss in 2008, achieving positive returns in other years, which can better hedge against the decline in equity assets. Gold + bonds is also one of the allocation methods. Guotai Fund analysis suggests that a combination of gold and bonds can balance returns and risks under certain market conditions. For example, during economic instability, the fixed income from bonds can stabilize the returns of the investment portfolio, while the safe-haven attribute of gold may bring additional value. Additionally, by reasonably allocating the proportion of gold and bonds, it can help reduce portfolio volatility to a certain extent, improve portfolio stability, and help investors better achieve the goal of asset preservation and appreciation.

With the adjustment of US tariff policies, global financial markets have seen a surge in risk-averse sentiment. Gold ETFs have experienced strong capital inflows this year, with the market size increasing by 64.72% year-to-date. Under the US's temporary suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" today, gold ETFs once again showed a collective trend of opening higher with a gap and rising. Several gold-themed funds have recently continuously warned of high premium risks. Industry insiders believe that the short-term correction of gold ETFs was mainly due to liquidity factors. In the medium and long term, the demand for gold as an anti-stagflation asset has surged, and allocating gold funds can still effectively diversify risks and optimize investment returns. The repeated changes in US tariff policies have not stopped the explosive growth of gold ETF sizes, which have now increased to 116 billion. Data shows that as of April 9, the total size of 14 gold ETFs in the market was 116.029 billion yuan, an increase of about 64.72% from 70.442 billion yuan at the end of last year. Currently, there are 4 gold ETFs with sizes exceeding 10 billion yuan, belonging to Huaan Fund, Bosera Fund, E Fund, and Guotai Fund, with current sizes of 46.943 billion yuan, 22.371 billion yuan, 19.757 billion yuan, and 13.849 billion yuan, respectively. The size increases this year have been 63.70%, 49.10%, 49.13%, and 93.91%. Notably, the continuous rise in gold prices has also been accompanied by net value drawdowns due to some products "cashing in." Data shows that the Nanhua Gold Index rose by 8.33% in March, but some gold ETFs started to see net outflows from the beginning of March. For example, on March 21, E Fund Gold ETF, Bosera Gold ETF, and ChinaAMC Gold ETF all experienced net value declines. Since April, US tariff policies have been fluctuating. Under the news of the temporary suspension of reciprocal tariffs today, the Nanhua Gold Index has rebounded, but it has still fallen by 0.23% since April. However, the growth momentum of gold ETFs has not shown signs of slowing down with the tariff policies. Taking Huaan Fund Gold ETF (518880) as an example, from the beginning of April to now, the total shares have increased from 5.93 billion to 6.712 billion, and the total size has also increased significantly by 5.347 billion yuan. Xu Zhiyan, Assistant General Manager of Huaan Fund, told Caixin that the medium and long-term investment value of gold is still supported. From the perspective of the reasons for the gold price decline, the short-term correction is mainly due to liquidity factors. Xu Zhiyan stated that referring to March 2020, a liquidity crisis triggered by global recession fundamentals also dragged down gold, with the maximum drawdown at around 12%. However, as the US Fed released liquidity on March 15, 2020, gold trading experienced a significant event-driven turnaround, and the gold price returned to highs two weeks later. Notably, the potential increase in US bond supply exacerbates the squeeze on liquidity, and the future US dollar liquidity is not optimistic, which may have a certain impact on the net value drawdown of gold funds. Zhang Jundong, a fixed-income analyst at CICC, stated in a research report that on April 5, the US Senate passed a new version of the debt ceiling bill, increasing the basic deficit by 5.8 trillion dollars over the next ten years, which is more aggressive than the version passed by the House of Representatives at the end of February. It is expected that the final version of the budget reconciliation bill may be passed in May-June, at which time the supply of US bonds may rise significantly, causing a greater squeeze on liquidity, and the real liquidity shock may not have arrived yet. Under the temporary suspension of "reciprocal tariffs," can gold ETFs still be bought? According to media reports, UBS stated in a report that in the short term, the gold market has indeed entered a technical overbought territory, but investors are still generally confident in gold and remain cautious about the US market. However, if Trump's trade policy stance softens, it may weaken gold's defensive attributes, and the technical downside support may reach $2,850/oz. However, under the US's temporary suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" today, the gold price continued to rise, with spot gold rising by 1.6% at one point, reaching a high of $3,132.44/oz. In the view of market analysts, although tariffs on other countries have been suspended for 90 days, the US continues to impose additional tariffs on Asia's largest metal consumer market, escalating the already heated trade war and once again enhancing gold's safe-haven attributes. The 14 gold ETFs in the market once again showed a collective trend of opening higher with a gap and rising today, with a year-to-date return growth rate of over 17.5%. Notably, after several days of fluctuating at highs, several gold-themed funds, including E Fund Gold Theme Fund (LOF), ChinaAMC Gold and Precious Metals Fund (LOF), and Harvest Gold Fund (LOF), have recently continuously warned of high premium risks. The cumulative increases of the above gold-themed funds this year have all exceeded 40%, significantly higher than the net value increases of the fund shares. The Shanghai Gold Exchange also issued an announcement today, stating that recent international situations are complex and volatile, with significant fluctuations in precious metal prices and increased market risks. Members are requested to enhance risk awareness, continue to refine and implement risk emergency plans, and maintain stable market operations. At the same time, investors are reminded to take risk prevention measures, reasonably control positions, and invest rationally. Xu Zhiyan told Caixin, The pricing logic of gold is closely related to the global macro situation, and it is difficult for individual investors to time the market. Short-term gold volatility will still be significant, and investors are advised to avoid chasing highs and selling lows, focusing instead on the medium and long-term allocation logic of gold. "In the medium and long term, since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, gold has decoupled from the US dollar. Over the past 50 years, the annualized yield of COMEX gold prices has exceeded 8%, and gold has shown extremely low correlation with major asset classes such as stocks and bonds. The demand for gold as an anti-stagflation asset has surged. Therefore, allocating gold funds can still effectively diversify risks and optimize investment returns," Xu Zhiyan said.

[SMM Flash News: COMEX Gold and SHFE Gold Hit Record Highs, Precious Metals Futures and Stocks Surge, Spot Silver Trading Remains Sluggish] Recently, a series of disappointing economic data released by the US, coupled with the unpredictable US tariff policies, has reignited concerns over a US economic recession. Adding to this, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts has heightened market risk aversion, driving a surge in precious metals futures and stocks. As of 15:05 on March 14, COMEX gold rose 0.22% to $2,898/oz, hitting a record high of $3,005.9/oz during the session; COMEX silver increased 0.78% to $34.575/oz, reaching a more than 4-month high of $34.685/oz during the session; SHFE gold climbed 1.83% to 694.96 yuan/g, setting a record high of 697.6 yuan/g during the session; SHFE silver advanced 2.82% to 8,358 yuan/kg, marking a more than 4-month high of 8,386 yuan/kg during the session.

As the market expected that the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate hikes in the future, on May 4, COMEX gold prices hit the second highest of $2,085.4 per ounce, and the most active SHFE gold contract prices hit a record high of 459.98 yuan/gram.