[SMM Analysis] SHFE copper cathode spot premiums experienced notable volatility in H1 2026, marked by deep discounts in phases, a recovery in Q2, and a return to positive territory by mid-year. In Q1, seasonal inventory buildup after the Chinese New Year, slow downstream recovery, and disruptions from contract rollovers repeatedly put spot premiums under pressure. Entering Q2, consumption improved QoQ, and concentrated smelter maintenance drove continuous destocking of domestic social inventory. In particular, the rapid decline in Guangdong inventory lifted spot premiums in South China, opened arbitrage opportunities for shipping inventory from East China to South China, and provided support to premiums in Shanghai and other regions. From May to June, although high copper prices and off-season expectations suppressed downstream purchases, the widening LME-COMEX spread diverted overseas supply to the US market, constraining the pace of imported copper replenishment in China, with low inventory levels still underpinning spot market resilience. Looking ahead to H2, SHFE copper premiums will be shaped by the interplay of inventory, consumption, imports, and supply additions. The Q3 off-season may limit the upside for premiums, but low inventories, uncertainty over import replenishment, and tight regional supply will continue to support spot premiums. In Q4, attention should be focused on the capacity ramp-up of new expansion projects such as Humon Phase 2, Chifeng Jintong Phase 2, and Shenghai Phase 2. If new supply is released smoothly, the import window opens, and consumption recovery remains weak, spot premiums may gradually come under pressure. However, if inventories stay low and import replenishment remains limited, premiums could still see intermittent strengthening opportunities.

[SMM Copper Market Flash] After SHFE copper closed today, COMEX copper prices surged, while LME’s decline widened to over 1.7%; currently, the COMEX2607-LME spread has widened to over $300/mt, and the COMEX2610-LME spread to over $500/mt. It is reported that there is still no clear news on the Section 232 tariff, and the LC spread has been relatively active.

SMM Analysis | June 30 marks a critical milestone in the U.S. Section 232 copper investigation. Will refined copper tariffs proceed as expected? Whether the outcome is a broad tariff, targeted measures, or a delay and exemption, the decision could reshape the COMEX–LME arbitrage, U.S. physical premiums, global copper trade flows, and regional supply dynamics.

[SMM Analysis] On June 30, the US Department of Commerce will reach the key report period for the copper Section 232 investigation. Will copper cathode tariffs proceed as planned? How will across-the-board tariffs, targeted tariffs, or deferred exemptions affect the COMEX-LME price spread, US spot premiums, global copper trade flows, and regional supply landscapes?

Copper prices eased slightly on June 5 after recently reaching record highs, with COMEX copper trading around $6.46 per pound. Despite the pullback, prices remain more than 30% above year-ago levels. Investors are closely monitoring the U.S. copper tariff investigation and the pace of mine supply recovery. Industry expect elevated volatility to continue while supply risks remain unresolved.

The COMEX-LME copper price spread has continued to widen over the past two weeks, reaching approximately $400/t by late May and touching a recent high of $500/t. With the cross-market arbitrage window remaining open, traders have accelerated the cancellation of LME registered warrants and the transfer of material to the United States. LME copper inventory drawdowns have picked up pace, falling 3,375 tonnes on May 29th to 386,050 tonnes — a fresh 10-week low. Cancelled warrants currently account for 30.87% of total LME copper inventory, with more than half concentrated in US LME warehouses, reflecting clear intent to move metal. Meanwhile, COMEX copper inventories have continued to build to approximately 575,000 tonnes. According to SMM, CIF Shanghai COMEX registered bill-of-lading warrants