SMM News, March 19: Data Brief: As of Thursday, March 19, copper inventories in SMM's major regions nationwide fell 8.85% WoW from last Thursday, while total inventories increased 176,700 mt YoY from the same period last year, with all regions posting destocking. By region, copper cathode inventories in Shanghai continued to decline, as arrivals of domestic material gradually decreased after the end of delivery, while warehouse withdrawals gradually exceeded warehouse inflows amid consumption support; in Jiangsu, inventories also continued to destock, as demand in northern China recovered, arrivals of domestic material decreased, and local consumption rebounded; in Guangdong, inventories also trended downward, supported by a marked recovery in downstream demand and slightly tighter supply. Looking ahead, on the supply side, imported material continued to arrive at ports, but arrivals of domestic material decreased due to the end of delivery; on the demand side, the sharp pullback in copper prices clearly stimulated downstream procurement. Based on the overall supply-demand pattern, supply is expected to remain tight next week while consumption steadily rebounds, and weekly copper cathode inventories are expected to continue destocking.

SMM News, March 19: Today, in Guangdong, spot prices for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were quoted at premiums of 140 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, up 90 yuan/mt from yesterday; premiums of 20 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, up 80 yuan/mt from yesterday; and discounts of 40 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, up 80 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 95,735 yuan/mt, down 3,400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 95,615 yuan/mt, up 3,405 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory declined for three consecutive days, mainly due to reduced arrivals and increased shipments. Copper prices fell sharply, and downstream processing enterprises actively placed orders. Suppliers adjusted prices accordingly. In early trading, standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, but due to very strong transactions, it was later adjusted to a premium of 20 yuan/mt. Today, procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong stood at 2.65, up 0.06 from the previous trading day, while shipments sentiment stood at 3.43, up 0.05 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, as copper prices fell sharply, downstream buyers actively restocked, driving spot premiums significantly higher.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] During the day, the SHFE copper 2604 contract extended its decline, with the trading range falling further to 95,500-96,000 yuan/mt. The center of copper prices kept moving lower, significantly stimulating downstream enterprises' demand to buy the dip and restock, while spot market trading sentiment clearly recovered. Demand side, according to SMM, most downstream enterprises saw a surge in order volumes, with a substantial increase from the previous period, and end-user cargo pick-up enthusiasm also improved in tandem. The pullback in copper prices became more attractive to enterprises, and purchase willingness to buy the dip was strong. Suppliers held prices firm accordingly, driving a notable rebound in spot premiums in early trading. Supply side, social inventory destocked sharply by 24,200 mt from Monday, and the pace of destocking accelerated. The rebound in spot premiums raised suppliers' willingness to sell, leading to more warrants flowing into the market. As premiums reached the psychological expectations of some suppliers, selling of spot warrants began to emerge, easing the previously tight spot supply situation and causing spot premiums to decline later. Overall, current copper prices have become more attractive to downstream enterprises, and faster destocking supports the spot market, but suppliers' selling at high levels combined with changes in the price spread between futures contracts structure put pressure on premiums. Under the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, Shanghai spot copper is expected to remain in a tug-of-war pattern tomorrow, with premiums likely to stay in the discount range.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,714.5/mt and climbed to $12,715/mt at the start of the session. Copper prices then saw the center move straight downward, before fluctuating rangebound and eventually closing at $12,340/mt, down 3.44%. Trading volume reached 33,600 lots, and open interest stood at 288,300 lots, down 4,872 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at and touched a high of 98,000 yuan/mt, after which the center of copper prices moved straight downward to a low of 95,920 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward and finally closed at 96,340 yuan/mt, down 2.58%. Trading volume reached 103,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, up 9,911 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to increased short positions.

March 18, 2026: The average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closed at $47/mt (price range: $42-52/mt); the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closed at $46/mt (price range: $41-51/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day, closed at $26/mt (price range: $21-31/mt), with quotations referring to cargoes scheduled to arrive from late March to mid-April. Since last night, SHFE prices had continued to decline, while China spot premiums rose, opening the window for spot imports. Suppliers actively sought bonded warrants or B/Ls arriving in the near term. It was heard that a small volume of ER copper B/Ls arriving in late March was offered at $50-60/mt, QP April; EQ B/L offers for arrival in late March and early April were quoted at $35, while EQ B/Ls arriving in mid-to-late April were offered at $35/mt and traded at $30/mt, with both April and May QP available. Standard ER copper warrants for delivery within the week were offered at $50/mt, QP April.

Today, spot #1 copper cathode in North China was quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 40 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with the average premium/discount at parity, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 95,645 yuan/mt, down 3,375 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.