SMM, August 19: In the metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.89%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.75%. SHFE zinc fell 1.07%, SHFE tin fell 1.21%. SHFE nickel fell 0.25%. SHFE lead rose 0.47%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.07%, and the most-traded aluminum casting futures contract fell 0.46%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Stainless steel rose 0.25%, iron ore rose 1.63%, and rebar rose 0.7%. HRC rose 0.67%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.22%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 2.46%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals broadly fell. LME copper fell 1.2%. LME aluminum fell 1.29%. LME lead rose 0.16%. LME zinc fell 1.68%. LME tin fell 1.12%. LME nickel rose 0.24%. Overnight, in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.88%, and COMEX silver fell 4.24%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.95%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.95%. As of 7:16 AM on August 19, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [State Council: Broaden the Scope of Housing Provident Fund Withdrawal and Use] Premier Li Qiang recently signed a State Council decree, announcing the Decision of the State Council on Amending the Regulations on the Management of Housing Provident Funds, which will take effect on September 20, 2026. The amendments include broadening the scope of withdrawal and use. For the withdrawal of housing provident funds to pay rent, the threshold that rent must exceed a prescribed percentage of household wage income is removed; new circumstances in which housing provident funds can be withdrawn are added, including for the renovation of owner-occupied housing, payment of property management fees for owner-occupied housing, and other housing consumption scenarios approved by the State Council. The investment and utilization channels for housing provident funds are appropriately broadened, and it is clarified that housing provident fund management centers may use housing provident funds to purchase policy-oriented financial bonds. [Ministry of Commerce: 18 Measures Introduced to Further Stimulate the Vitality of the Lower-Tier Market] On the afternoon of August 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce efforts to stimulate the vitality of the lower-tier market and boost consumption at the county level. A responsible official from the Ministry of Commerce stated that, regarding the optimization of the commercial environment in counties, the Opinions propose accelerating the renewal of existing commercial facilities, optimizing the layout of commercial outlets, improving supporting commercial services, and revitalizing idle resources and assets. The efficiency of urban-rural distribution networks will be improved, two-way distribution channels between urban and rural areas will be unblocked, and the coordinated development of online and offline channels will be promoted. In terms of enriching supply in county-level consumption, we will guide chain enterprises to accelerate their expansion into lower-tier markets, encourage local brands to uphold tradition while pursuing innovation, and develop new business formats in line with local conditions. We will expand the supply of high-quality, reasonably priced goods, accelerate the improvement of service formats such as elderly care and childcare, and promote the integrated development of commerce, agriculture, culture, tourism, and sports. (From the Wall Street CN APP) [Shanghai: By 2030, Striving to Build Shanghai into a Core Node in the Global Logistics and Supply Chain Network, an International Logistics Hub, and a Global Supply Chain Management Center City] The General Office of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued the "Shanghai Modern Logistics Development 15th Five-Year Plan." By 2030, a modern logistics system characterized by internal and external connectivity, convenience and efficiency, value-added empowerment, and smart and green development will be fully established. Efforts will focus on improving the logistics network composed of "gateway hubs—regional bases—community-level nodes." The logistics industry structure will be continuously optimized, logistics operation quality and efficiency will be further improved, and the international competitiveness, industrial support capacity, and livelihood security capability of logistics services will be significantly enhanced. The goal is to build Shanghai into a core node in the global logistics and supply chain network, an international logistics hub, and a global supply chain management center city. (From the Wall Street CN APP) US Dollar: The overnight US dollar index rose 0.07% to 99.65. Bond traders have adjusted their strategies once again. Following a series of data suggesting that a rate hike by the US Fed for the rest of the year is nearly impossible, options market bets are attempting to hedge against the risk of the Fed pivoting to an interest rate cut in 2027. This dovish bet contradicts recent movements in the US Treasury market: long-term bond yields have risen to multi-year highs, as a Fed on hold would keep inflation persistently above target for longer. Options traders closely tied to the Fed's policy path, however, are turning their attention to signs of US economic weakness, which they believe could trigger a market reversal. This trend first emerged when data released last week showed that inflation and consumer demand slowed down in July, cooling market expectations for a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting. Options market participants subsequently began adjusting their positions, reducing the magnitude of rate hikes priced into the swap market for the coming months. Some options are even considering hedging the risk of a rate cut that could occur by the middle of next year. "Concerns about rate hikes have diminished," said Jeff Schul, head of rates at Constitution Capital, noting that positions betting on that outcome are being unwound. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through September is 65%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 35%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through October is 51.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 41.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 7.4%. "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: Executives surveyed by the Cleveland Fed expect CPI inflation to be 3.3% over the next year, slightly down from 3.7% in Q2. They anticipate no significant changes in wage growth (2.8% over the next year vs. 2.9% in last year's survey) or employment levels. R&D spending growth is expected to slow down, projected at 2.0% over the next year, down from 3.1% in last year's survey. Bank of America's August global fund manager survey showed that a majority expect Fed Chairman Warsh to take a neutral stance at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference later this month. Among respondents, 31% expect him to deliver "hawkish" remarks, while only 7% expect "dovish" remarks. (Jin10) On the macro front: Today will see the release of the UK July CPI m/m, UK July RPI m/m, eurozone June seasonally adjusted current account, eurozone July final CPI y/y, eurozone July final CPI m/m, and other data. Also, watch for: ECB President Christine Lagarde attending the "Global Economic Outlook" discussion at the World Economic Forum International Business Council (IBC) meeting; Kuaishou holds its earnings call. On the crude oil front: Overnight, both crude oil futures extended gains for a second day, with WTI up 0.81% and Brent up 0.51%. Crude oil prices remained calm, but diesel saw strong undercurrents. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement technically expired on Monday. Trump said the US is not currently negotiating with Iran but insisted that the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating normally. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 293.4 million barrels, the lowest since 1982. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 293.4 million barrels, the lowest since 1982. Ukrainian drone strikes pushed Russian crude oil exports to a four-week low, with supply disruptions in both the Middle East and the Black Sea; refiners became the biggest winners. Jet fuel and diesel prices per barrel equivalent are both near 2022 crisis levels, while WTI is only $84.92, making crack spreads extremely wide. (Wall Street See)

Daily Price Update — August 18, 2026 Indonesian nickel ore CIF average prices strengthened across all three grades: 1.4% Ni: CIF average price rose from $52.6/wmt to $53.3/wmt, up $0.7/wmt. 1.5% Ni: CIF average price rose from $60.0/wmt to $60.8/wmt, up $0.8/wmt. 1.6% Ni: CIF average price rose from $64.9/wmt to $65.8/wmt, up $0.9/wmt, the largest increase among the three grades. Premium: Market players verified that the premium remained stable compared with the first half of August, with no significant change in the prevailing premium level. Overall: CIF average prices increased by $0.7–0.9/wmt, indicating a moderate firming in Indonesian nickel ore prices, while premium levels remained steady. Indonesia Policy Update Indonesia’s planned Mineral and Strategic Commodities Exchange remains the key recent policy development relevant to the nickel market. The exchange is expected to cover nickel, coal and palm oil, with operations targeted for January 1, 2027, aiming to establish domestic reference prices for strategic commodities. Nickel impact: The exchange could strengthen Indonesia’s influence over nickel price formation and domestic benchmarks, potentially increasing the role of Indonesian reference prices in international nickel trade. Latest development: State Secretary Minister Prasetyo Hadi said on August 17 that preparations for the exchange are underway. The platform is tentatively referred to as Icomex.

SMM News on August 18: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 1.19%, and SHFE aluminum fell 0.35%. SHFE lead rose 0.13%. SHFE zinc fell 0.97%. SHFE tin fell 1.57%. SHFE nickel rose 0.19%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract fell 0.84%, and the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.26%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 0.69%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.92%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.17%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore fell 0.21%, rebar fell 0.27%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.09%. Stainless steel rose 0.6%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.36%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.2%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:42, LME metals were down nearly across the board. LME copper fell 0.34%, and LME lead rose 0.11%. LME zinc fell 0.59%. LME aluminum and LME tin edged down, with both declines within 0.1%. LME nickel rose 0.42%. Precious metals: as of 11:42, COMEX gold fell 0.47%, and COMEX silver fell 1.29%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.15%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.12%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.18%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.61%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping contract rose 0.99% to 1,737.5 points. As of 11:42 on August 18, midday performance of some futures: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper’s absolute price continued to pull back during the day, driving some downstream players to restock on dips and releasing purchase demand from traders. Market transactions improved markedly from yesterday, with standard-quality copper trading relatively smoothly around spot premiums of 350 yuan/mt, providing some support below spot premiums. Overall, with copper prices pulling back to spur the release of rigid demand and the backwardation structure providing support, but high premiums limiting further rush to buy amid continuous price rise, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2609 contract are expected to remain at a premium tomorrow, with the overall center likely to consolidate around current levels... Macro Front China: [The Ministry of Commerce and other departments jointly issued the “Opinions on Further Stimulating the Vitality of Lower-Tier Markets and Boosting County-Level Consumption”] The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments released the “Opinions on Further Stimulating the Vitality of Lower-tier Markets and Boosting County-level Consumption,” which proposed accelerating the renovation and upgrading of existing commercial facilities. Supported the upgrading and renovation of traditional department stores and aging shopping centers, and promoted optimized site selection for branded chain stores, discount retailers, and fresh-food e-commerce outlets. Deepened the “1,000 Markets and 10,000 Stores” renovation and enhancement initiative, supported the construction and upgrading of township commercial and trade centers, township (agricultural) trade markets, and distinctive township fairs, and carried out standardized and regulated renovation and construction of new-type convenience stores and village-level integrated parcel and logistics service stations. [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Achieved a Net Drain of 95.8 billion yuan on the Day] The PBOC conducted no reverse repo operations today, while carrying out 469.7 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos. As 565.5 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos matured today, a net drain of 95.8 billion yuan was achieved on the day. (Jinshi Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:42, the US dollar index rose 0.05% to 99.63. According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged through September was 65%, and the probability of cumulative hikes of 25 basis points was 35%. The probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged through October was 51.4%, the probability of cumulative hikes of 25 basis points was 41.3%, and the probability of cumulative hikes of 50 basis points was 7.4%. (Jinshi Data APP) On Monday local time, US Treasury yields broadly moved higher. The 30-year Treasury yield, typically more sensitive to geopolitical events, rose more than 4 basis points to 5.311%, the highest level since June 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield—the primary benchmark rate for mortgages, auto loans, and credit card debt—rose more than 2 basis points to 4.724%. The 2-year Treasury yield, which typically fluctuates in line with the US Fed’s short-term rate decisions, rose more than 1 basis point on Monday to 4.182%. Oil prices climbed as the 60-day deadline for the peace agreement reached between the US and Iran was set to expire on Monday, and Iran had ruled out the possibility of extending the deadline. Investors were awaiting the release later this week of the minutes of the US Fed meeting to gain further insight into its latest monetary policy decision and the future path of interest rates. At its July 29 meeting, the US Fed voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. The three dissenting committee members—Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan—called for a 25-basis-point rate hike. Reuters poll: Of 104 economists, 94 expected the US Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in September (95 held this view in the July survey). Eighty of 104 economists expect the US Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range in 2026 (78 held this view in the July survey). Recent weak US jobs and retail sales data, along with subdued inflation data, prompted investors to scale back bets on rate hikes. However, Paul Brocardo, CEO of BankPro, noted in a report that if uncertainty over the Middle East situation and the resulting inflation concerns persist, the dollar's downside may be limited. Any escalation in tensions could boost demand for safe-haven assets, thereby supporting the dollar, while also lifting oil prices and driving yields higher. (Jin10 Data APP) On the Data Front: Today will see the release of the UK ILO unemployment rate for the three months to June, the UK July unemployment rate, the UK July claimant count, Germany's August ZEW economic sentiment index, the eurozone's August ZEW economic sentiment index, US ADP employment change for the week ended August 1, US July annualized housing starts, US July building permits, US July import price index MoM, US July industrial production MoM, and US July pending home sales index MoM, among others. In addition, Xiaomi Group and Baidu will hold earnings calls. Crude Oil: As of 11:42, both crude oil benchmarks were higher, with WTI crude up 0.7% and Brent crude up 0.63%. As prospects for US-Iran peace talks dimmed, market concerns over crude oil supply supported prices. US President Trump said he has no intention of extending the soon-to-expire agreement with Iran. The US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June this year technically expired on Monday. The two sides still have differences on many issues, including the Strait of Hormuz. Other officials suggested that the US is in no rush to end the conflict, which has lasted nearly six months. The US Energy Secretary said the US is playing a long game with the Islamic Republic of Iran, while Trump's senior adviser Kushner said Trump would remain patient on reaching an agreement. (Jin10 Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said measures will be announced in the coming days to help refineries increase fuel production. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve still has 300 million barrels, and its level after the Iran conflict ends will be higher than before the conflict. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

The Indonesian government is preparing to establish a Mineral and Strategic Commodities Exchange (BMKS), targeted to begin operations on January 1, 2027, as part of efforts to strengthen domestic price discovery and Indonesia's influence over the pricing of its major commodities. State Secretary Prasetyo Hadi said nickel, CPO and coal are among the key commodities being considered, although the final list has not yet been determined. The exchange, potentially called the Indonesia Commodity Exchange (Icomex), is expected to operate under a mechanism that considers production costs and international commodity prices. The government is also assessing how the new exchange will interact with the existing Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX), including whether the two could eventually be integrated or operate separately.

SMM News, August 18: Metals market: Overnight, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.84%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.19%. SHFE zinc fell 0.48%, and SHFE tin fell 1.47%. SHFE lead edged up, while SHFE nickel edged down. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.56%, and the continuous casting aluminum contract fell 0.71%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel rose 0.32%, iron ore rose 0.14%, and rebar fell 0.3%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.18%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.18%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.23%. Overnight, in overseas metals, LME base metals mostly moved lower. LME copper fell 0.3%. LME aluminum rose 0.45%. LME lead fell 0.55%. LME zinc fell 0.11%. LME tin fell 0.49%. LME nickel fell 0.36%. Overnight, precious metals : COMEX gold extended the previous trading day’s gains, rising 0.81%, while COMEX silver rose 1.22%. Overnight, the continuous SHFE gold contract extended the previous trading day’s gains, rising 0.41%, while the continuous SHFE silver contract rose 0.82%. As of 7:16 on August 18, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [The Ministry of Commerce and other departments jointly issued the “Opinions on Further Stimulating the Vitality of Lower-Tier Markets and Boosting County-Level Consumption”] The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments released the “Opinions on Further Stimulating the Vitality of Lower-Tier Markets and Boosting County-Level Consumption,” which proposed accelerating the renewal of existing commercial facilities. It supports the upgrading and renovation of traditional department stores and aging shopping malls, and promotes optimized layout for branded chain stores, discount retail stores, and fresh e-commerce storefronts, among others. It will deepen the renovation and upgrading of the “1,000 Markets and 10,000 Stores” initiative, support the construction and upgrading of township commercial and trade centers, (agricultural) trade markets, and distinctive township fairs, and carry out standardized and regulated construction and renovation of new-type convenience stores and village-level integrated postal and express logistics service stations. [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): From January to July, value-added industrial output above designated size nationwide grew 5.3%, and the national economy maintained a development trend toward new drivers, higher quality, and improvement] According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): From January to July, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments conscientiously implemented the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, effectively responded to various external shocks and internal difficulties, focused on implementing more proactive and effective macro policies, and solidly advanced high-quality development. Production and supply grew steadily, employment and prices were generally stable, resilience in foreign trade continued to stand out, new drivers of growth expanded and strengthened, and overall economic performance remained stable, sustaining a development trend of shifting momentum toward new drivers and optimizing the structure. From January to July, the value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased by 5.3% YoY. By three major sectors, value added increased by 2.5% YoY in mining, 5.6% in manufacturing, and 5.4% in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water. Value added increased by 9.7% YoY in the equipment manufacturing industry and 13.8% in high-tech manufacturing, respectively 4.4 and 8.5 percentage points faster than overall industrial enterprises above the designated size. [National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and National Energy Administration Issue the 15th Five-Year Plan for Oil and Natural Gas Development] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for Oil and Natural Gas Development. It proposed that by 2030, China’s oil and gas supply will reach 440 million mt of oil equivalent; newly added long-distance oil and gas pipelines will total 20,000 km; the nationwide long-distance oil and gas pipeline network will reach 220,000 km; natural gas storage capacity will continue to increase, accounting for more than 13% of national consumption; LNG receiving terminals will have a throughput capacity of 200 million mt/year; the capacity for imported natural gas via onshore pipelines will reach 114 billion m³/year; and annual CO₂ injection under carbon capture and storage/carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCS/CCUS) will reach 10 million mt. [NDRC Deploys Efforts to Accelerate the Deployment of New-Type Policy-Based Financial Instruments in 2026 and Increase Support for Private Investment Projects] On August 14, Comrade Yue Xiuhu, a member of the Party Leadership Group and Vice Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), chaired a working meeting to deploy efforts to accelerate the deployment of new-type policy-based financial instruments in 2026 and increase support for private investment projects. Officials in charge from some provincial development and reform commissions, as well as officials in charge from China Development Bank, the Export-Import Bank of China, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China, and officials in charge from relevant departments and bureaus of the NDRC attended the meeting. Next, the NDRC will earnestly implement the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, actively work with relevant parties, and further accelerate all related work on the new-type policy-based financial instruments for 2026. (NDRC) [Li Bin of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange: Since July, China’s Foreign Exchange Market Has Remained Stable] In response to reporters’ questions on foreign exchange market conditions in July 2026, Li Bin, Deputy Administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that since July, the external environment has been complex and volatile, geopolitical uncertainty has risen, and international financial markets have continued to fluctuate. China’s foreign exchange market has remained stable, the scale of cross-border receipts and payments has expanded steadily, market expectations have been generally stable, and foreign exchange transactions have been rational and orderly. In terms of the scale of cross-border transactions, in July, total cross-border receipts and payments of non-bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals amounted to $1.7 trillion, up 20% YoY; foreign exchange market trading volume was $4.3 trillion, up 8% YoY, both remaining at relatively high levels. From the perspective of cross-border capital flows, in July, net cross-border capital inflows of $59.8 billion were recorded for non-bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals. Among these, net capital inflows under trade in goods remained high, while net capital outflows under trade in services and items such as dividend and interest payments by foreign-invested enterprises remained stable. From the perspective of foreign exchange market supply and demand, in July, banks posted a surplus of $18.3 billion in foreign exchange settlement and sales, with enterprises conducting settlement and sales transactions rationally based on actual needs and changes in market conditions; foreign exchange market supply and demand were basically balanced. (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index extended the declines of the previous two trading days, falling a further 0.06% to 99.58. On Monday local time, US Treasury yields broadly moved higher. The 30-year Treasury yield, which is typically more sensitive to geopolitical events, rose by more than 4 basis points to 5.311%, the highest level since June 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield—the key benchmark rate for mortgages, auto loans, and credit card debt—rose by more than 2 basis points to 4.724%. The 2-year Treasury yield, which usually fluctuates in line with US Fed short-term rate decisions, rose by more than 1 basis point on Monday to 4.182%. Oil prices climbed as the 60-day deadline for the US-Iran peace agreement was set to expire on Monday, and Iran had ruled out the possibility of an extension. Investors were awaiting the release of the US Fed meeting minutes later this week to gain further insight into the US Fed’s latest monetary policy decision and the future path of interest rates. At its July 29 meeting, the US Fed voted 9–3 to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. The three dissenting committee members—Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan—called for a 25-basis-point rate hike. According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through September was 65%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 35%. The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through October was 51.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 41.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike was 7.4%. Citadel Securities said that after inflation had remained above target for an extended period, the US Fed’s continued reluctance to tighten monetary policy had kept long-term bond yields at multi-year highs and posed broader risks to the overall market. Noshad Shah, head of EMEA fixed income sales at Citadel Securities, said that although the policy rate was already 175 basis points below its peak, long-term US Treasury yields were still at their highest levels in nearly 20 years. Shah said: “In my view, this reflects the market’s belief that whether it is the US Fed or the fiscal authorities, when policymakers face difficult choices, they often tend to choose the easier path.”“As long as this situation persists, it will continue to pose risks to the broader market.” On Monday, the US 30-year Treasury yield climbed to a 19-year high, breaking above 5.28%. Data released last week showed that both inflation and consumer demand had slowed down, prompting the bond market to scale back expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in September. Shah warned that the recent improvement in inflation and a weakening labor market should not be interpreted as meaning interest-rate risks have been eliminated. He noted that more than 55% of core goods prices were still rising. As a result, he believed the US Fed’s policy meeting next month would be a “dead heat.” Goldman Sachs said that, with US inflation cooling, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes remained overly aggressive. Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a report that, due to weak retail sales, disappointing employment data, and continued slowing in inflation, the likelihood of a US Fed rate hike at the September meeting was “very low” . Hatzius wrote: “Based on our baseline economic forecast, over time the probability that inflation data improve further is higher than the probability that they deteriorate again. We still believe the market’s pricing of the federal funds rate is too hawkish.” Data showed that the market had pushed back expectations for the next 25-basis-point US Fed rate hike to January next year, whereas a week earlier the market had fully expected the US Fed to hike in December. Goldman Sachs believed that, although market pricing was no longer as hawkish, there was still room for expectations for interest rate hikes to fade further. (Jinshi Data) On the macro front: Data due to be released today included the UK three-month ILO unemployment rate for June, the UK unemployment rate for July, the UK claimant count for July, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for August, the eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for August, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending August 1, US annualized housing starts for July, total US building permits for July, the US import price index month-on-month for July, US industrial output month-on-month for July, and the US pending home sales index month-on-month for July. In addition, watch for: Xiaomi Group’s earnings conference call; Baidu’s earnings conference call. On crude oil: Overnight, both crude oil futures extended the previous session’s gains and continued to rise, with WTI up 3.09% and Brent up 2.91%. The US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June this year technically expired on Monday. With the expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire escalating tensions, oil prices strengthened. According to CCTV News, on August 17 local time, US President Trump made it clear that he was not seeking to extend the memorandum of understanding with Iran, and said there was "no timetable" for resolving the Iran issue, adding that he "was not in a hurry". Iran issued a tough response in tandem. US Energy Secretary Wright said the US would “fight a long war” against Iran, and Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted that new economic sanctions are expected to be introduced soon. Russia, meanwhile, has faced fuel shortages after Ukraine’s sustained strikes on refineries, and two regions have implemented gasoline rationing. Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Chief Analyst at Global Risk Management, said that more oil being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the US shift toward economic sanctions, is depressing the geopolitical premium and capping upside room for oil prices; however, the economic pressure strategy means the strait could be closed for months. (Wallstreetcn) Saudi Arabia is providing oil supplies loaded near the coast of Oman, indicating the country may be following the UAE’s lead by transshipping more crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. According to people familiar with the matter, Saudi Aramco is supplying crude cargoes loaded at locations such as Sohar in the Gulf of Oman via ship-to-ship transfers. The cargoes involved are Arab Medium and Arab Heavy crude, suggesting the crude is highly likely to originate from the Persian Gulf. Saudi Aramco CEO Nasser said in March that the Yanbu pipeline mainly carries Arab Light and Arab Extra Light crude. He said at the time that the country’s offshore oil fields are primarily located in the Persian Gulf, forming the country’s supply of medium and heavy oil. Saudi Aramco declined to comment on the above information. (Jinshi Data APP)

SMM News on August 17: Weaker-than-expected US economic data led the market to lower expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, with the US dollar index pulling back to around 99.5. Coupled with medium and long-term support from geopolitical safe-haven demand and central bank gold purchases, rising international gold and silver prices lifted China’s futures market, in turn boosting sentiment in the precious metals sector of A-shares. As of around 15:10 on August 17, COMEX gold rose 0.48% to $4,458.7/oz; the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 1.05% to 955.72 yuan/g; COMEX silver climbed 1.47% to $66.065/oz; the most-traded SHFE silver contract increased 2.48% to 16,143 yuan/kg; and silver T+D rose 2.89% to 16,065 yuan/kg. In addition, the most-traded platinum futures contract surged 3.37% to 436 yuan/g, while the most-traded palladium contract advanced 2.03% to 318.95 yuan/g. Equities: As of the close on the 17th, the precious metals sector rose 3.33%. Among individual stocks, Hunan Silver jumped 6.63%, while Shandong Humon Smelting, Shandong Gold International, Zhongjin Gold, Xingye Silver&Tin, and Shengda Resources posted leading gains. Spot Market Silver On August 17, the morning ex-works reference average spot price for SMM 1# silver was 16,021 yuan/kg, up 3.21% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, higher silver prices suppressed downstream purchasing demand, and the market saw strong wait-and-see sentiment today. Against the backdrop of a widening spot-futures price spread, suppliers became more cautious in quoting, with transactions mainly driven by rigid demand from some acceptance needs, overall leaning toward parity. In Shanghai, early-session quotations were mainly at TD -5 to +10 yuan/kg, with insufficient purchasing momentum and transactions skewed toward the lower end. In Shenzhen, some national-standard cargoes clustered around a slight discount to parity. Today’s premiums quotations against the SHFE the most-traded contract 2610 were a discount of 70-50 yuan/kg. Overall, silver prices rebounded slightly today, but with the news flow lacking further upward momentum, prices are expected to move sideways in the short term. In the spot market, higher silver prices continued to curb follow-up demand, and downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines at the start of the week. Platinum On August 17, the average spot price of platinum was 431 yuan/g, up 2.62% from the previous trading day. Mainstream quotations for platinum were a discount of 3-2 yuan/g against the PT2610 contract. Driven by today’s rise in futures, suppliers slightly widened their discount quotations versus the previous trading day, but downstream consumption remained weak, and purchase willingness was limited after the futures rally, with procurement mainly consisting of small lots for rigid demand. Suppliers faced obstacles in selling high-priced cargoes, and the bargaining room in actual deals widened somewhat. Warehouse warrant premiums were relatively high, and mainstream quotations mostly hovered around a discount of about 1.5 yuan/g to the most-traded contract. Overall, platinum spot market trading remained sluggish today. Views From Various Parties On the outlook for precious metals, some institutions were relatively optimistic while others were more cautious. The views of several institutions are as follows: Everbright Futures believed that multiple US inflation readings cooled and consumption weakened, prompting the market to lower its expectations for a September rate hike. Gold prices last week generally shot up but then met resistance and pulled back. In the short term, upside resistance for gold was evident; however, stagflation, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases provided support, leaving limited room for a sharp pullback. On the US Fed, divisions within the US Fed remained apparent: Richmond Fed President Barkin supported keeping rates unchanged, while Cleveland Fed President Hammack reiterated a rate-hike stance. The market was also watching for comments from Wosh; his speech at the global central bank annual meeting at month-end in August was expected to be exceptionally important and could provide some guidance for the September policy meeting. On the geopolitical front, the contest and negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz were still ongoing. After the US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly weakened, CPI and PPI both came in mild, further confirming a marginal easing of inflation pressures. The market’s extreme pricing for a September rate hike pulled back markedly from earlier highs, which also drove a notable rebound in gold prices. However, as the data were released and the probability of a rate hike declined, the market again became “confused” about the outlook, and profit-taking pushed gold prices somewhat lower. In addition, reports said the Japanese government supported the Bank of Japan’s recent rate hike, and the next window for a hike was likely to fall in September or October, triggering a brief bout of liquidity-panic sentiment in the market. In the short term, gold faced substantial resistance in the upper range and needed time to digest it, along with further catalysts from news flow. Nevertheless, it could be expected that deepening US stagflation, persistent geopolitical risks, and continued increases in holdings by China’s central bank would all provide structural support for gold, keeping the probability of a sharp pullback relatively low. (Zhitong Finance) CICC Wealth Futures: The US-Iran issue remained in stalemate. Iran stated that the US must not enter the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, or the Strait of Hormuz in the future; however, Trump announced that the Strait of Hormuz was about to become US territory, and the impact of geopolitical factors had yet to be eliminated. In addition, attention should be paid to the US dollar: the US dollar remained weak recently, with the fundamental reason being that US missteps on the military, geopolitical, and financial fronts reduced the US dollar’s safe-haven value. Coupled with midterm election pressure, expectations of passive fiscal tightening, and the trend of “UK gilts-ization of US Treasuries,” the US dollar could weaken further in the medium term, and the year’s high may have already been seen. Overall, gold still had supportive factors in the macro backdrop, and gold prices were expected to retain short-term upward momentum after the pullback. CITIC Securities stated that base metals this week saw some profit-taking at their respective key resistance levels, and base-metals equities also experienced profit-taking. However, given that commodity prices still had significant drivers for further gains, it recommended being more patient with base metals. Gold prices were temporarily under pressure at the $4,500 threshold, but both employment and inflation data reduced the likelihood of rate hikes ahead of the midterm elections, and gold prices remained in a favorable window. A rare high premium emerged on the spot copper side, highlighting an extremely tight inventory situation; copper prices were on the verge of breaking to a new all-time high, and equities—priced at only a little over 10x PE based on a 100,000-yuan copper price—provided a sufficient margin of safety, making the allocation value proposition stand out. (Zhitong Finance) In the latest report released last Thursday, UBS strategists said that falling real interest rates would drive investors back into the gold market, while a weaker US dollar and strong central-bank demand for gold purchases would jointly push gold prices toward the $5,000/oz threshold in H1 next year. (Zhitong Finance) Citadel Securities strategist Scott Rubner, for the first time since 2026, recommended that investors allocate to structured gold positions, saying the current precious-metals market was forming “one of the most attractive upside opportunities in months” . Rubner believed that gold and silver were simultaneously benefiting from multiple tailwinds, including a shift in US Fed policy expectations, continued central-bank gold buying, quant funds still positioned as bears, the options market releasing bullish signals, and retail funds previously drawn by the AI trading wave potentially flowing back in. In his view, multiple factors were creating a rare resonance, and the precious-metals market could enter a new uptrend phase. StoneX senior analyst Matt Simpson said that improving Middle East peace prospects lowered market inflation expectations, pushing gold prices further higher from a consolidation range that had lasted for weeks and sat above $4,000. The US Department of Labor was set to release the non-farm payrolls report tonight. Simpson added: “Regardless of the non-farm payrolls data, $4,000 has proven to be a solid support level—I suspect bulls are waiting for a pullback to seize the opportunity and drive gold prices in a rebound to $4,600. The non-farm payrolls data may bring some fluctuations in the short term, but price action has already shown the direction; gold seems to want to rise.” World Gold Council: In July, positive momentum factors offset negative risk factors, leaving gold prices flat in July. Looking ahead, a second wave of high inflation similar to that in the late 1970s cannot be ruled out. But that in itself does not mean gold will surge, as it will depend on real interest rates, the US dollar, growth expectations, demand from Asian investors, and how central banks respond. Kelvin Wong, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, said: “The link between gold and oil prices still exists, because oil prices have a huge impact on inflationary pressures in the global economy. If we can see a clear roadmap for further de-escalation of the (Middle East) situation, gold prices may continue to rise.” (Jinshi Data APP) A CITIC Securities research report said that since the beginning of this year, gold prices shot up and then fell rapidly, but we believe gold is still in a major bull market, driven by the accelerating expansion of the US fiscal deficit, hard-to-bridge geopolitical rifts amid de-globalization, and continued support from ongoing gold purchases by global central banks. Therefore, we believe this round of decline in gold prices is only a temporary adjustment within a bull market. The current pullback has approached historical extremes, and around $4,000/oz is highly likely to be the bottom area for this cycle. Looking ahead, the impact of the Strait of Hormuz situation on gold prices is expected to shift from suppression to support, US Fed monetary policy may be more optimistic than market expectations, and together with a surge in US military spending pushing up the deficit, gold prices are expected to return to an upward channel within the year. Everbright Futures, looking ahead to August, said the short-term trend in gold prices depends on how the US-Iran situation evolves. If the conflict continues or spillovers expand, market sentiment may turn weaker again, and under expectations of liquidity risks, gold prices may continue to underperform; but if there is a substantive breakthrough in negotiations, gold prices may stabilize in the short term and see a rebound-driven repair. At that time, if financial markets both inside and outside China recover in tandem, it can be further confirmed. However, it can be expected that with support from rigid central bank buying and allocation demand, even if another pullback occurs, the downside room will be relatively limited. In addition, the Jackson Hole global central bank symposium at the end of August may see Walsh outline a medium-term policy framework; before that, the US CPI data on the 12th will be a key validation indicator. Overall, gold may show a solid bottom and be in a sentiment-repair phase, warranting a cautiously optimistic view. The core risks are that the US-Iran conflict again drives oil prices to climb above $90/oz, US inflation data rebounds far above expectations, and the probability of a September rate hike continues to rise, which may continue to suppress market sentiment; however, judging from the performance of financial markets outside China and oil prices, neither strongly supports a full-scale escalation of the US-Iran conflict. A Reuters poll showed that after gold prices pulled back sharply from record highs in January, analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since the end of 2023, but most still expect central bank buying and concerns about fiscal sustainability to provide support. In a survey of 29 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks, the median forecast for 2026 gold prices was $4,509 per ounce. This was below $4,916 three months earlier and marked the first downward revision in 11 quarters. The average forecast price for 2027 was $4,610, versus $5,100 in the previous survey. Gold prices hit a record high of $5,595 per ounce in January, but in Q2 they saw a sharp pull back as the Iran war intensified energy inflation and pushed up expectations for rate hikes, posting the worst quarterly performance since 2013. Since the outbreak of the war, spot gold has fallen by about 22%. (Jinshi Data APP) ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey noted that gold prices rose on Monday because a sharp drop in oil prices eased inflation concerns and weighed on the US dollar and US Treasury yield. The steep fall in oil prices on Monday alleviated inflation worries and the outlook for further monetary tightening. The move followed a pause in US-Iran hostilities. Lower oil prices also pressured the US dollar and US Treasury yield, improving the outlook for non-interest-bearing assets ahead of this week’s US Fed meeting. The market is now focused on the US Fed and the upcoming release of US inflation data for further guidance on the interest-rate outlook. If yield remains subdued, gold prices should continue to find support around current levels. However, any hawkish surprise from the US Fed could limit further upside room in the near term. Commerzbank: Cut its year-end gold price forecast to $4,500 per troy ounce. Platinum prices are expected to reach $2,000 per troy ounce by the end of the year, versus a previous forecast of $2,100. Citi said its base case showed that, despite Q3 historically being a seasonal peak for stockpiling, India’s gold imports would remain subdued in Q3. This was due to ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment, and a discount in local prices, which curbed demand for fresh imports. However, Citi still set its 0–3 month short-term gold target at $4,500. The bank said this target assumed easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a less hawkish turn by the US Fed; in the near term, many risks could still drive gold prices to retest lower levels, including major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish stance from the US Fed. Analysts at ANZ Research said in a report that physical gold demand for the metal and buying by central banks were supporting the gold market. The analysts added that while gold prices faced near-term headwinds from expectations of US Fed tightening and a firm US dollar, after months of exchange-traded fund outflows, gold investment positioning looked very thin, suggesting that room for further declines could be limited. A high-interest-rate environment typically weighs on non-yielding assets such as gold. (Zhitong Finance) Goldman Sachs said that, despite pressure from expectations of a more hawkish US Fed, central bank buying is expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains strong; the bank estimated that central banks purchased 81 mt of gold in May, with the three-month average monthly purchases at 67 mt—well above the pre-2022 average of 17 mt. Goldman analysts said, “We believe the trend of central banks increasing gold holdings will continue for many years, as they hedge geopolitical and financial risks through reserve diversification.” The bank forecast that average monthly purchases in this year and next will be 50 mt and 40 mt, respectively. (Jinshi Data APP) Soojin Kim, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, said, “Recent price action suggests the market is placing greater emphasis on the possibility that US interest rates will stay high for longer, rather than gold’s traditional safe-haven demand. This leaves gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a broad deterioration in financial market sentiment.” (Jinshi Data APP) Asset manager Fidelity International said it plans to rebuild its gold position, which it reduced earlier this year, at an appropriate time in the future, believing that gold’s long-term drivers remain strong. Ian Samson, a multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, said recently, “We plan to increase our gold holdings again; it’s just a question of timing.” He said he cut his gold allocation to neutral from January to February this year, when a multi-year bull market in gold abruptly ended. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market at some point in 2027. The rationale for a return to a bull market would only be undermined if “governments return to fiscal discipline and central banks are truly committed to pushing inflation back down,” “but I don’t think we’re in that world right now.” Samson also said that continued gold purchases by central banks (a key driver of the previous gold bull market) will continue to support gold prices. Recommended Reading: