SMM News, June 30: In the metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market generally fell. SHFE copper edged down, SHFE aluminum fell 2.13%, SHFE lead fell 1.02%, SHFE zinc fell 0.16%, SHFE tin edged up, and SHFE nickel fell 1.8%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 1.41%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.56%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 4.82%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.24%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.8%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore rose 0.2%, HRC edged up, rebar fell 0.13%, and stainless steel fell 0.34%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.55%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.18%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:36, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.24%, LME aluminum edged up, LME lead fell 0.18%, LME zinc fell 0.19%, LME tin rose 0.44%, and LME nickel rose 0.34%. In precious metals, as of 11:36, COMEX gold fell 1.48%, COMEX silver fell 1.19%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 2.67%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.16%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 3.29%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract was flat at 290.65 yuan/g. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping (European route) futures contract fell 1.7% to 3,662.5 points. As of 11:36 on June 30, some futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: In the Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot mainstream traded at 24,030-24,250 yuan/mt, Zijin traded at 24,220-24,530 yuan/mt, #1 zinc ingot traded around 24,100-24,240 yuan/mt, Zijin against the 2608 contract reported a discount of around 30-40 yuan/mt, Huxin quoted at 25,090 yuan/mt, #0 zinc ingot against the 2608 contract reported a discount of around 50-100 yuan/mt, Tianjin market versus Shanghai market reported a discount of around 40 yuan/mt. Today contract rollover quotations... Macro Front Domestic side: [National Bureau of Statistics: June manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, China's economic prosperity level rebounded somewhat] According to NBS data, in June, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, returning to expansion territory. By enterprise size, large enterprises' PMI was 50.7%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, still above the threshold; medium-sized enterprises' PMI was 50.5%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, above the threshold; small enterprises' PMI was 48.2%, down 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, below the threshold. From the sub-indexes perspective, among the five sub-indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index and new orders index were above the threshold, while the raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold. Huo Lihui, chief statistician of the Service Survey Center at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), commented on China's PMI for June 2026: In June, the non-manufacturing business activity index stood at 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a rebound in non-manufacturing activity. The expansion in the services sector accelerated. The services business activity index was 50.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, showing an improvement in activity. By industry, business activity indexes for sectors such as telecommunication, radio and television, and satellite transmission services; internet, software, and information technology services; monetary and financial services; and insurance were all in the higher expansion zone above 55.0%, with relatively rapid growth in business volume. The indexes for air transport and real estate remained below the threshold. The services business activity expectations index was 56.0%, up 0.6 percentage point from the previous month, indicating improving expectations among enterprises regarding market development. The construction sector saw some improvement. The construction business activity index was 49.0%, up 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, a marginal rebound. The construction business activity expectations index was 51.1%, continuing to indicate expansion. [PBOC conducts 669.5 billion yuan reverse repo in open market, net withdrawal of 155 billion yuan for the day] The PBOC conducted a 69.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation today, with an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from before. Today, 524.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repos mature. At the same time, the PBOC conducted a 600 billion yuan overnight reverse repo operation, and today 300 billion yuan overnight reverse repos mature. On the US dollar front: As of 11:36, the US dollar index rose 0.19% to 101.31. The US Supreme Court blocked Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Cook; the move was a forceful rebuke to the president's attack on the world's most important central bank. The 5-4 ruling is the latest major check on the Trump administration by the Supreme Court. Earlier this year, the court also ruled that the president does not have the authority to impose tariffs using emergency powers, a decision that shook a key pillar of the Trump administration's economic policy. The ruling released on Monday rejected the first-ever attempt by a US president to remove a Fed governor; critics have warned that such a move would undermine the central bank's independence. However, on Monday the US Supreme Court also cleared the way for Trump to fire Federal Trade Commission (FTC) members without cause; a move that grants the White House greater power and tightens control over independent regulatory agencies. According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 70.1%, and that of a cumulative 25bp hike is 29.9%. For September, the probability of unchanged rates is 37.2%, that of a 25bp cumulative hike is 48.8%, and that of a 50bp hike is 14.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today’s releases include the US FHFA House Price Index MoM for April, the US S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index NSA YoY for April, the US Chicago PMI for June, the US JOLTS Job Openings for May, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for June, the UK Q1 GDP YoY Final, the UK Q1 Current Account, Germany’s June seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany’s June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s June CPI MoM Preliminary, France’s June CPI MoM Preliminary, Switzerland’s June KOF Economic Barometer, Canada’s April GDP MoM, Japan’s May unemployment rate, and other data. Also, watch for: ECB President Lagarde delivers opening remarks at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, the Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting, and the US and Iran hold technical negotiations. It is also worth noting that on July 1, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with northbound and southbound trading shut. The Toronto Stock Exchange will be closed for Canada Day. Other currencies: The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s June meeting showed the bank believed monetary policy needed to remain tight to eliminate surplus demand in the economy. As the minutes were compiled before Brent crude prices fell more than 10% last week, the hawkish tone reflected in them has become notably disconnected from current market moves. Currently, the market is pricing in only 10bp of further tightening by year-end, while the probability of easing by 2027 stands at 17bp. The tension for the Australian dollar lies in that, on one hand, the RBA clearly stated it is prepared to hike again if needed; on the other, the market believes rates have likely peaked. If upcoming data confirms that weaker oil prices are gradually feeding through to inflation expectations, the Australian dollar could face a repricing. Meanwhile, falling house prices in Sydney and Melbourne are adding to domestic growth risks and could reinforce the market’s dovish repricing, even as the RBA board’s rhetoric remains distinctly hawkish.((Jinshi Data APP) Crude oil: As of 11:36, oil prices in both markets edged down, with WTI falling 0.27% and Brent down 0.15%. The market was focused on possible talks between the US and Iran. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Iran’s top priority at that time was to ensure the implementation of all provisions of the memorandum of understanding. With regard to Article 10 of the memorandum concerning the US commitment to allow Iranian oil exports, the US side had already issued the necessary permits, and Iran was following up on the implementation progress. As for Article 11 regarding the unfreezing of Iranian assets, the relevant implementation procedures were also progressing. This week, Iran would send a technical delegation to Qatar for consultations on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding, including Article 11. The spokesperson said that Iran had not yet initiated negotiations on a final agreement. According to Article 13 of the memorandum, the precondition for initiating final agreement negotiations was the commencement and continued implementation of Articles 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11. Furthermore, the spokesperson stressed that there would be no negotiations at any level between Iran and the US in the coming days. The trip by US representatives to Qatar was unrelated to the Iranian technical delegation’s visit; the Iranian delegation’s purpose in going to Qatar was to follow up on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding, including Article 11. (CCTV) According to trade sources and a document, Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) had sharply reduced its official selling prices to attract long-term buyers to lift Basrah crude from its terminals in the Middle East Gulf in July. The discount for Basrah Medium was $14 to $16 per barrel, and for Basrah Heavy, it was $16.8 to $18.8 per barrel, depending on the loading date. Discounts were larger for loadings from July 1 to 5, and smaller for loadings from July 6 to 10, and from July 11 to 31. SOMO said that buyers needed to submit their order quantities within one day of receiving the notification letter. Trade sources said that the steep discounts might attract buyers, but it remained to be seen whether passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible. (Jinshi Data APP) According to data from the US Department of Energy (DOE), crude oil inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell by 5.5 million barrels to 325.7 million barrels, the lowest level since May 1983. The inventory decline was part of a US agreement to release 172 million barrels of crude from the reserve to fill a gap in global inventories following the Iran conflict and help push down fuel prices. US crude inventories fell rapidly in recent weeks due to strong crude exports and refining demand. From the outbreak of the conflict in late February to June 19, total US inventories, including commercial stocks and the SPR, had fallen by 111.4 million barrels to 743.3 million barrels, the lowest level since 1984. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM, June 30: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on overseas and Chinese markets mostly fell, with only LME copper and SHFE zinc rising together—LME copper fell 0.17%, while SHFE zinc gained 0.12%. LME aluminum dropped 3.11%, leading the decline; LME nickel, SHFE aluminum, and SHFE nickel all fell more than 2%, with LME nickel down 2.41%, SHFE aluminum down 2.19%, and SHFE nickel down 2.55%. LME tin fell 1.27%, and declines in other metals were all within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 0.82%, and cast aluminum main contract fell 1.08%. Overnight, in ferrous metals, iron ore gained 0.61%, stainless steel fell 0.92%, HRC and rebar fluctuated with relatively small declines, and in coking coal and coke, coking coal gained 0.16% while coke fell 0.18%. Overnight, in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 1.61% and COMEX silver fell 1.54%. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.25% and SHFE silver fell 0.98%. As of 6:42 AM on June 30, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting, which reviewed and approved the "15th Five-Year Plan Action Plan for Carbon Peaking" and the "15th Five-Year Plan for National Health"] Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting, which reviewed and approved the "15th Five-Year Plan Action Plan for Carbon Peaking" and the "15th Five-Year Plan for National Health". The meeting noted that the strategic driving role of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality should be leveraged to promote the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure and create more green economic growth points. It is necessary to focus on key areas and critical links with sustained effort, accelerate the adjustment and optimization of the energy structure, advance industrial greening and low-carbonisation, improve systems for laws, regulations, standards, and carbon emission statistical accounting, conduct evaluation and assessment in a scientific and orderly manner, integrate green and low-carbon orientation into all areas and links of the national economic cycle, promote the formation of green production and lifestyles, and strengthen the green foundation for high-quality development. The meeting noted that in recent years, the construction of a Healthy China has accelerated, and people's health levels have continued to improve. It is necessary to build a full-life-cycle health service system, coordinate resource allocation, strengthen synergy among medical care, medical insurance, and disease control, and provide the public with systematic, continuous, high-quality, and efficient health services. It is necessary to vigorously develop the health industry, improve supporting policies, cultivate and expand new-type service formats in the health sector, enrich the supply of health products, strictly enforce quality and safety supervision, and enable the public to consume with confidence and live healthily. (CCTV News) [Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting and heard a report on the development of artificial intelligence] Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting and heard a report on the development of artificial intelligence. The meeting noted that it is necessary to deeply grasp the evolution trends of AI, improve supporting policies and governance systems, and firmly hold the initiative in development. Efforts should be intensified to promote AI innovation and breakthroughs, accelerate key technology research and the construction of ultra-large-scale intelligent computing clusters, strengthen the supply of high-quality data, enhance the guarantee of factors such as talent and capital, and support enterprises in conducting basic research and frontier exploration. It is necessary to deeply implement the "AI+" initiative, leverage China's advantages in having a complete industrial system and abundant application scenarios, and promote the accelerated large-scale commercial application of intelligent products and services. The bottom line of AI safety must be firmly upheld, improving institutional rules on technology ethics and testing and certification, building a dynamically adaptive, tiered, and classified safety regulatory system, and strengthening international cooperation on AI governance. (CCTV News) [Multiple Shanghai municipal departments jointly held a centralized meeting on the compliance governance of ride-hailing platforms] On the afternoon of June 29, led by the Shanghai Ride-Hailing Collaborative Supervision Task Force and coordinating multiple departments including transportation, public security, market regulation, human resources and social security, data, and communications management, a centralized meeting on compliance governance of ride-hailing platform enterprises was held citywide. The main responsible persons from 24 ride-hailing platforms and aggregation platforms in the city attended the meeting. Targeting various problems identified during inspections, the meeting specified five mandatory compliance governance requirements: first, platforms must strictly regulate capacity access management, comprehensively screen and remove non-compliant vehicles and personnel, and strictly prohibit dispatching orders in violation of regulations; second, improve the routine self-inspection mechanism for operational data to ensure that data is reported to regulatory authorities in a complete, timely, and standardized manner; third, implement full-chain control of safety production, strengthen dynamic verification of personnel and vehicle qualifications, and build a solid line of defense for safe operations; fourth, fully standardize the fee disclosure mechanism, with clear price labeling and transparent charging, to protect the legitimate rights and interests of both drivers and passengers; fifth, simultaneously enhance network security operation and maintenance management, complete network security graded protection assessments on schedule, and promptly identify and eliminate system security risks. (Shanghai Transportation) (Jinshi Data APP) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.25% to close at 101.11, recording its third consecutive daily decline. US President Donald Trump responded on his social media platform to the "Supreme Court ruling on the case concerning a Federal Reserve Board member", stating: We will take corresponding action regarding the Cook lawsuit to ensure that Cook will not make crucial decisions (on FOMC monetary policy issues). Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari publicly stated last Friday that his assessment of the federal funds rate has undergone a fundamental shift over the past three months. In March of this year, Kashkari still leaned toward the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points. In his latest dot plot projections, however, he has marked one rate hike to be implemented within the year. As an official with voting rights on the FOMC in 2026, his shift in view also reflects a significant adjustment in the Fed's overall policy tone. The market simultaneously digested the signal of a collective hawkish turn by the Fed, leading to notable pricing adjustments. In early June, the probability of a rate hike within the year priced in by the market was only 25%; that figure has now climbed to 67%. (Wall Street CN) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged in July is 70.1%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 29.9%. By September, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 37.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 48.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 14.1%. (Jinshi Data APP) Other currencies: The yen depreciated against the US dollar to its lowest level since 1986. This "milestone" decline has sparked concerns within Japan and also put traders on high alert, closely watching whether authorities will intervene in the market. The yen briefly fell 0.1% against the dollar, touching 161.96, thereby breaching the 161.95 level reached in July 2024 when Japan took action to prop up the currency. The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 1% on June 16, the highest level since 1995. However, this move had little effect, as traders expect the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance going forward. Furthermore, the Japanese government is expected to call for the implementation of "appropriate" currency management in its basic policy guidelines, a move apparently aimed at dissuading the central bank from further rate hikes. Japan previously conducted record-scale foreign exchange intervention totaling ¥11.73 trillion, yet the yen remained persistently weak. According to the Ministry of Finance's foreign reserve data, Japan likely utilized its holdings of foreign securities, including US Treasury bonds, during this round of intervention to support the currency. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Data to be released today include China's June official manufacturing PMI, US April FHFA House Price Index month-over-month, US April S&P/CS 20-City Unadjusted House Price Index year-over-year, US June Chicago PMI, US May JOLTS Job Openings, US June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, UK Q1 GDP final year-over-year, UK Q1 Current Account, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany June CPI month-over-month preliminary, France June CPI month-over-month preliminary, Switzerland June KOF Economic Leading Indicator, Canada April GDP month-over-month, and Japan May unemployment rate. In addition, ECB President Lagarde delivered opening remarks at the Global Central Bank Forum in Sintra, the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting, and the US and Iran held technical negotiations. Notably, on July 1, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with Northbound and Southbound Trading shut. The Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada will also be closed for Canada Day. On the crude oil front: Overnight, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 1.72% and Brent up 1.34%. US-Iran geopolitical tensions flared up again, but optimistic market expectations for the gradual resumption of energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz capped the gains to some extent. Morgan Stanley stated that due to the faster-than-expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with high US exports and low Chinese imports, it lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast. It cut its Q3 2026 price forecast by $15 to $75 per barrel; Q4 2026 by $5 to $75; Q1 and Q2 2027 by $5 to $75; and Q3 and Q4 2027 by $10 to $70. It noted: "For the market to balance in 2027, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz need only recover to 11-12 million barrels per day, about 65% of pre-conflict levels. Looking ahead to 2027, our model assumes this figure will be exceeded, and observable inventories will increase by 3 million barrels per day, which may put pressure on oil prices." (Wall Street CN) According to data from the US Department of Energy (DOE), crude oil inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) decreased by 5.5 million barrels to 325.7 million barrels, the lowest level since May 1983. This drawdown was part of an agreement reached by the US to release 172 million barrels of crude from the reserve to fill global inventory gaps following the Iran conflict and help lower fuel prices. Amid strong US crude exports and refining demand, US crude inventories have declined rapidly in recent weeks. Since the conflict erupted at end-February, total US inventories through June 19, including commercial stocks and the SPR, have fallen by 111.4 million barrels to 743.3 million barrels, the lowest since 1984. (Jin10 Data APP) US President Trump posted that gasoline retailers must immediately lower prices. Given that crude oil prices have fallen to $68 per barrel and are still declining, current gasoline prices are far too high. Retailers must respond swiftly to this statement and take the right actions they know well—lower prices for our great American people. Price gouging will never be allowed; it is completely illegal. If retailers do not comply, they will face major trouble ahead! The target price should be around $2.50 per gallon (note: the current national average gasoline price is about $3.86 per gallon), and California should stop taxing gasoline so heavily. Soon, the tax will exceed the product price itself; the US will never tolerate this, and the people of California won't either—they are being squeezed by these absurd taxes and their state government. (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM June 29 news: Metal markets: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market saw nearly broad gains. SHFE copper rose 1.11%, SHFE aluminum edged up 0.48%, SHFE lead fell 0.43%, SHFE zinc gained 2.01%, SHFE tin increased 1.19%, and SHFE nickel inched up 0.1%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 1.08%, the most-traded alumina contract added 0.86%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract jumped 2.27%, the most-traded silicon metal contract ticked up 0.24%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract gained 0.59%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore added 0.47%, rebar and HRC edged lower, and stainless steel inched up 0.03%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract jumped 2.25%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 1.32%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:43, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper rose 0.29%, LME aluminum fell 0.44%, LME lead added 0.24%, LME zinc dipped 0.1%, LME tin fell 0.18%, and LME nickel inched up. In precious metals, as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.29%, and COMEX silver dropped 0.84%. In the domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold rose 1.23%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 2.22%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract surged 2.77%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract jumped 3.78%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping freight index futures contract ticked up 0.19% to 3,715 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:43 on June 29: Spot Market and Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 20 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,320 yuan/mt, up 535 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,220 yuan/mt, up 525 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front China: [Ministry of Commerce Adds 20 Japanese Entities to Export Control List] Ministry of Commerce: To safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, it has been decided to add 20 Japanese entities, including the National Institute for Defense Studies, which are involved in enhancing Japan's military capabilities, to the export control list. First, the export of dual-use items to the above 20 entities by operators is prohibited, and overseas organizations and individuals are prohibited from transferring or providing dual-use items originating in the People's Republic of China to the above 20 entities; ongoing related activities must be immediately ceased. II. If export is genuinely necessary under special circumstances, the exporter shall apply to the Ministry of Commerce. [China's highest-latitude solar thermal power station begins operation] Today (June 29), the first solar thermal power station in Northeast China — the 100,000 kW CGN Jixi Base solar thermal power station — was put into operation in Da'an City, Jilin Province, marking a new breakthrough in the application of solar thermal power technology in high-latitude, severely cold regions of China. Located at 45.36 degrees north latitude in a severe cold climate zone, it is China's highest-latitude solar thermal station, with an installed capacity of 100,000 kW, a heat storage duration of up to 8 hours, and the ability to operate safely, stably, and continuously 24 hours a day. This type of station primarily uses large arrays of mirrors to focus sunlight onto heat collection devices, thereby achieving energy storage. (CCTV News) The PBOC conducted a 157.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation today at an interest rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. Today, 476.5 billion yuan in reverse repos matured. At the same time, the PBOC conducted a 300 billion yuan overnight reverse repo operation. For the US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index was down 0.05% at 101.33. According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 69.5%, with a 30.5% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike. For September, the probabilities are: unchanged (40.4%), cumulative 25bp hike (46.9%), cumulative 50bp hike (12.8%). (Jin10 Data APP) Gavekal Research noted in a report: "In 2025, the market was widely concerned that Trump would undermine the independence of US monetary policy by nominating a political puppet as Fed Chairman, forcing the Fed to cut interest rates and causing inflation to consistently exceed the Fed's 2% target." "Developments over the past seven months have made that scenario unlikely." These developments include the appointment of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed, and the reappointment of 11 out of 12 regional Fed presidents. At the first Fed meeting chaired by Warsh earlier this month, the Fed underscored its commitment to price stability, surprising some market participants who had expected a more dovish stance under the new chair. (Jin10 Data APP) According to "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos, sources revealed that the selection process for the new president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has reached an impasse. The initial slate of candidates failed to produce a final pick, forcing the bank to restart the selection process, which has already lasted seven months. On the surface, this is merely a procedural hiccup. But at the same time, the US Fed's independence is facing serious challenges. The presidents of the regional Federal Reserve Banks are crucial to the Fed's independence: they participate in setting interest rates, and their appointment process is deliberately designed to avoid being influenced by Washington's political operations. (Jin10 Data APP) Data wise: Data releases today will include the Eurozone June industrial sentiment index, the Eurozone June economic sentiment index, and the US June Dallas Fed business activity index, among others. Also in focus: the European Central Bank is hosting the Global Central Banking Forum in Sintra, through July 1; and the 2026 Beijing Space Computing Conference is being held from June 29 to 30. Crude oil wise: As of 11:43 a.m., oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 1.14% and Brent up 0.87%. The US and Iran clashed militarily again over the weekend, negotiations stalled, and supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz were reignited, supporting oil prices. According to CCTV news reporters on June 28, a senior US official revealed that both sides have agreed to stop attacking each other and plan to meet on June 30 in the Qatari capital to resolve the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz. However, as of now, neither the US and Iran nor the mediators Pakistan and Qatar have made any official statement. (Wall Street Insights) A report released by energy services company Baker Hughes on Friday showed that the number of new drilling rigs added by US energy companies in a single week hit a new high since June 2022. The total number of oil and gas drilling rigs, an early indicator of future production, increased by 10 in the week ending June 29, the largest weekly increase in four years. The total rig count reached 573, the highest level since May 2025. Baker Hughes stated that this week's increase brought the total rig count 26 higher YoY, an increase of 5%. The company said the number of oil rigs increased by 7 to 440 this week, the highest since June 2025. Natural gas rigs increased by 3 to 125, while rigs classified as other remained unchanged at 8. (Jin10 Data APP) Furthermore, Russian President Putin stated that car owners and various enterprises still face difficulties in fuel supply, with queuing common at gas stations across the country. Affected by the shutdown of multiple refineries, Russia is introducing measures to stabilize the domestic market, and Putin confirmed that a total ban on diesel exports is one of the options being discussed. After meetings with oil producers and government departments on Friday, the Russian Energy Ministry recommended against imposing a diesel export ban for now, citing that it could cause issues such as diesel inventory buildup; the government will reassess the market situation on Monday. Jinshi Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM Analysis | June 30 marks a critical milestone in the U.S. Section 232 copper investigation. Will refined copper tariffs proceed as expected? Whether the outcome is a broad tariff, targeted measures, or a delay and exemption, the decision could reshape the COMEX–LME arbitrage, U.S. physical premiums, global copper trade flows, and regional supply dynamics.

SMM June 27 News: Metals market: Last Friday’s overnight session saw nearly all base metals on the domestic market rise. SHFE zinc gained 2.16%, SHFE copper rose 0.9%, SHFE aluminum edged up 0.81%, and SHFE tin advanced 1.66%. SHFE nickel increased 0.36%. SHFE lead dipped 0.37%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract climbed 0.64%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract rose 1.66%. Last Friday’s overnight session saw mostly gains in ferrous metals. Stainless steel added 0.48%, iron ore rose 0.54%, and rebar slipped 0.1%. Hot-rolled coil was flat at 3,312 yuan/mt. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract gained 1.13%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 1.21%. Last Friday’s overnight session in overseas metals saw broad gains for LME base metals. LME copper edged up. LME aluminum rose 0.39%, while LME lead fell 0.58%. LME zinc gained 1.8%. LME tin advanced 1.69%. LME nickel dipped 0.36%. Last Friday’s overnight session in precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.37%, but COMEX gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly decline, down 3.37% for the week; COMEX silver gained 1.37%, while COMEX silver fell for a seventh straight week, down 10.79% for the week. Last Friday’s overnight session saw the most-traded SHFE gold contract rise 1.34%, but SHFE gold declined on a weekly basis, down 6.33% for the week; the most-traded SHFE silver contract climbed 2.61%, while SHFE silver declined on a weekly basis, down 15.23% for the week. Macquarie strategists noted that all eyes are currently on the trajectory of inflation and whether central banks, particularly the US Fed, will tighten policy to control prices. The apparent end of the Middle East conflict, combined with a more hawkish Fed stance, has led to a pullback in gold prices. The first meeting under new Fed Chair Walsh struck a “hawkish” tone, with the central bank under his leadership having the capacity to either “drive or suppress” the gold market. The shock from the Middle East situation is expected to drag on global growth in Q3, after which an eventual rebound in global growth and the start of a monetary easing cycle should push gold prices lower, as more investor funds rotate out of precious metals and into other assets. Investors have been taking profits and rotating into equities, which has created room for re-entry into precious metals and could drive a price rebound, but a significant macro event may be needed to reignite investor interest in gold. Spot gold prices are forecast to average $4,641 in 2026, up 35% YoY, but the average price is expected to decline 9.5% to $4,200 in 2027, followed by yearly declines through 2030. The bank lowered its year-end spot gold forecast to $4,300 from $4,400. (Jin10 Data APP) As of 7:46 a.m. on June 27, closing prices from last Friday’s overnight session: Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Profits of China’s industrial enterprises above designated size grew 18.8% in January–May, with the electronics sector providing significant support] Data from the NBS showed that total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 3,143.96 billion yuan in January–May, up 18.8% YoY. From January to May, among industrial enterprises above designated size, state-controlled enterprises realized total profits of 1,048.66 billion yuan, up 19.6% YoY; joint-stock enterprises realized total profits of 2,434.81 billion yuan, up 24.1% YoY; foreign-invested enterprises and those funded by Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan investors realized total profits of 695.72 billion yuan, up 4.2% YoY; and private enterprises realized total profits of 772.65 billion yuan, up 10.7% YoY. Yu Weining, chief statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the profit data of industrial enterprises for January–May 2026. Yu Weining noted that the electronics sector played a significant supporting role. From January to May, profits of the equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 14.1% YoY, boosting the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 5.2 percentage points. From an industry perspective, the global AI technology revolution has led to explosive demand for high-end computing power chips and memory chips, driving rapid profit growth in the electronics sector. From January to May, profits of the electronics industry surged 103.9% YoY, contributing 43.1% to the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above designated size, making it a crucial underpinning for the relatively rapid profit growth of these enterprises. [Series of 7 National Standards for "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" Released] At a press conference held by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), it was announced that the series of national standards "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" has been officially released. With the rapid iteration of technologies such as large models, artificial intelligence is accelerating from the stage of perception and understanding into a new phase of generative decision-making and autonomous execution. An agent, as an intelligent system with capabilities in autonomous perception, memory, decision-making, interaction, and execution, represents an important application form of next-generation AI. It is also a key vehicle for AI technology to empower diverse industries and underpin high-quality development of the intelligent economy. The seven national standards in the "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" series released this time comprehensively cover core aspects including overall architecture, identity codes, identity management, agent description, agent discovery, agent interaction, and agent tool invocation. They systematically establish a closed-loop standards framework encompassing "identity identification—capability description—supply-demand discovery—collaborative interaction—tool invocation," effectively filling the standard gap in this field. With unified architecture and interaction rules established through these standards, enterprises can reuse standardized components, reduce customized development, and shorten time-to-market. At the same time, they lay an institutional foundation for cross-domain trustworthiness and secure interaction by establishing unified identity authentication and full traceability mechanisms. (CCTV News) The People's Bank of China and the General Administration of Customs have issued a notice to solicit public opinions on the "Administrative Measures for the Import and Export of Gold and Gold Products (Draft for Comments)." (From Wall Street CN APP) [Three Departments: Further Improve Work Related to Collection of Mineral Rights Transfer Proceeds] The Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, and State Taxation Administration have issued a notice on further improving the collection of mineral rights transfer proceeds, clarifying that late payment penalties for mineral rights transfer proceeds will no longer be collected starting August 1, 2026. If a mining rights holder fails to pay the mineral rights transfer proceeds in full and on time, a penalty of 0.2% per day will be charged from the date of default, with the total penalty not exceeding the principal amount owed. Penalties for mineral rights transfer proceeds will be recorded under the mineral rights transfer proceeds category and shared between central and local governments according to the same proportion as mineral rights transfer proceeds. Late payment penalties that have already accrued before the implementation of this notice shall continue to be paid in accordance with previous regulations, and penalty charges will not apply. US Dollar: The overnight US dollar index fell 0.1% last Friday, closing at 101.36. On a weekly basis, the dollar index recorded its second consecutive weekly gain, rising 0.6% for the week. US Treasury yields and the dollar edged lower as oil prices declined and the market reassessed the US interest rate outlook. The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of one rate hike this year remains high at 42%, while the chance of a second hike has dropped to 28% from 34% a week ago as inflation expectations cool. A Wall Street Journal survey indicates the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, set to be released at 10 a.m. US Eastern Time (10 p.m. Beijing Time), is expected to rise from 44.8 to 49. (Jinshi Data APP) Reuters Poll: 78 of 102 economists surveyed expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in 2026, compared with 72 of 102 economists who held this view in the early June survey. Artem Sakhbiev, FX strategist at BCA Research, said in a report that the recent rebound in the US dollar appears somewhat overextended and lacks the support needed to break out of the trading range of the past year. The Fed revised its interest rate projections upward at last week's meeting and explicitly focused on inflation. This led to a significant rise in inflation-adjusted real yields and eased concerns about political pressure for rate cuts, thereby boosting the dollar. However, this move now appears largely exhausted. The Fed is likely to hold rates steady, and the spread between short- and long-term yields could widen. (Jinshi Data APP) According to Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed mouthpiece," sources say the search for a new president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has reached an impasse. The initial list of candidates failed to yield a final selection, forcing the bank to restart the selection process, which has now lasted seven months. On the surface, this was just a minor procedural hiccup. But at the same time, the independence of the US Fed is facing a severe test. Reserve Bank presidents are crucial to the Fed's independence: they participate in setting interest rates, and their appointment process is deliberately designed to avoid influence from Washington politics. (Jin10 Data App) Fed official Kashkari stated that signs of widespread inflation led him to expect one rate hike this year in the Fed economic forecasts released earlier this month. Rates are expected to remain unchanged in 2027. In a media interview on Friday, Kashkari said: "I am concerned about inflation, not just related to the Middle East situation, but signs of broader inflationary pressures in the economy." The Iran war pushed up oil prices, and prices rose across many categories. This has intensified concerns among some Fed officials that inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent, potentially requiring stronger action from the central bank. A report released earlier this week showed the May PCE annual rate came in at 4.1%, the largest increase since April 2023. Prices have exceeded the Fed's 2% target for over five years. In the dot plot forecasts released by the Fed last week, half of the officials who submitted dot plot projections expected at least one rate hike this year. (Jin10 Data App) The US goods trade deficit widened to its highest level in over a year in May, as exports fell and imports rose. Data released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed the goods trade deficit expanded 27.4% from the previous month to $105.8 billion, compared to an expected deficit of $85 billion. US goods exports fell 5.4% in May, dragged down mainly by declines in multiple categories, including shipments of industrial supplies. This category covers crude oil and petroleum products. Over the same period, imports rose 3.6%. (From Wall Street CN APP) In other currency news: As London experiences record-breaking heat, Bank of England officials are starting to worry that weather could become the next shock driving up inflation, just as the previous supply shock is fading. Climate scientists increasingly expect a strong El Niño event to form later this year into 2027, disrupting global weather patterns. Now, economists are also concerned this could trigger a new round of supply shocks, push up food inflation, and once again frustrate global central banks' efforts to fight inflation. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of data including the Eurozone June industrial sentiment index, Eurozone June economic sentiment index, US June Dallas Fed business activity index, Japan May unemployment rate, China June official manufacturing PMI, UK Q1 GDP annual rate final, UK Q1 current account, France June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Switzerland June KOF economic leading indicator, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Canada April GDP monthly rate, US April FHFA house price index monthly rate, US April S&P/CS 20-City non-seasonally adjusted house price index annual rate, US June Chicago PMI, US May JOLTS job openings, US June Conference Board consumer confidence index, China June RatingDog manufacturing PMI, France June manufacturing PMI final, Germany June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June manufacturing PMI final, UK June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June CPI annual rate preliminary, Eurozone June CPI monthly rate preliminary, US June Challenger job cuts, US June ADP employment change, US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI final, US June ISM manufacturing PMI, US May construction spending monthly rate, Switzerland June CPI monthly rate, Eurozone May unemployment rate, US June unemployment rate, US June seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27, US June average hourly earnings annual rate, US June average hourly earnings monthly rate, US May factory orders monthly rate, China June RatingDog services PMI, France May industrial output monthly rate, France June services PMI final, Germany June services PMI final, Eurozone June services PMI final, UK June services PMI final, and other data. Additionally, this week, attention should be paid to: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivering a speech; the ECB holding its Central Bank Forum in Sintra through July 1; the 2026 Beijing Space Computing Conference taking place from June 29 to 30; ECB President Lagarde speaking in Sintra; the Reserve Bank of Australia releasing the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; the ECB holding its Central Bank Forum in Sintra; the US and Iran holding technical negotiations (to be confirmed); Fed Chairman Walsh, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaking at the ECB Forum; the ECB holding its Central Bank Forum in Sintra; ECB President Lagarde delivering a speech; Bank of England Governor Bailey speaking on the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy; and a new round of domestic refined oil product price adjustments opening in China. It is worth noting that on July 1, the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Market was closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with both Northbound and Southbound trading shut. On July 3, the US-NYSE was closed for the US Independence Day holiday; trading in CME precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts ended early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday; trading in ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts ended early at 01:30 Beijing time on the 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday. In crude oil: Both oil futures fell in overnight trading last Friday, with US oil dropping 2.34% and Brent oil dropping 2.52%. On a weekly basis, US oil futures recorded a three-week losing streak, falling 7.4% for the week; Brent oil futures also fell for a third straight week, dropping 8.06% for the week. Brent spot crude oil prices fell back to pre-war levels, and the near-month contracts exhibited a contango structure—where near-term prices are lower than those further out—for seven consecutive days, reflecting a temporary oversupply. Tariq Zahir, a managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors, indicated that oil prices had "dropped too fast, too furiously," the ceasefire agreement remained fragile, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz was still fraught with variables, so fluctuations were expected to persist. Rich Privorotsky, head of Goldman Sachs' One-Delta business, pointed out that Iran had begun a show of force near the Strait of Hormuz, some cargo ships had altered their routes, and the inventory overhang in the Gulf region was gradually flowing into the market. He believed that while the probability of a significant near-term price rise in crude oil was limited, the basis for a further substantial drop from current prices was equally insufficient. (From Wallstreetcn APP) US natural gas drilling rig additions recorded the largest single-week increase in four years. Data from Baker Hughes showed that the number of active oil drilling rigs operated by US energy enterprises reached 440 last week, marking a two-week consecutive increase, up from 433 the previous week. Active natural gas drilling rigs rose to 573, recording the largest gain since June 2022, compared with the prior figure of 563. (From Wall Street Cn APP) A report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that US refining capacity decreased by 263,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, a decline of 1.43%. This was primarily driven by the planned conversion of a major refinery in Houston and the closure of a refinery in the Los Angeles area due to market dynamics, which is known for strict environmental regulations. Marathon Petroleum, headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, maintained its position as the largest US refiner with a total refining capacity of 2.986 million bpd, accounting for 16.4% of the nation’s total capacity. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Furthermore, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil stated that OPEC has begun to gradually restore Iraq’s pre-war production quota, a move which will strengthen Iraq’s output capabilities and support the recovery of the oil sector. A high-level consensus has been reached within OPEC, fully taking into account Iraq’s past special circumstances and current actual needs. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Barclays said it has lowered its Brent crude oil price forecasts, cutting the 2026 estimate from $100 per barrel to $96, and the 2027 estimate from $88 to $85, citing the recovery of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded substantially, reaching about 80% of pre-war levels. However, this normalization process remains incomplete. The bank noted that Iran’s assertion of control through fee impositions and coordination mechanisms has created frictions and may potentially delay a full recovery. A temporary deal reached last week aimed at ending the US-Israeli war against Iran has allowed traffic on the Strait of Hormuz shipping route to resume. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Recommended Reading:

This week, the macro narrative shifted from geopolitics to monetary policy. On June 17, the FOMC took a hawkish hold, keeping rates unchanged but signaling a bias toward further tightening, with the new Fed Chair Warsh reiterating the commitment to restoring price stability. The US dollar strengthened and rate hike expectations heated up, combined with sluggish traditional copper consumption sectors in China, leaving copper prices under pressure and briefly falling below $6/lb early in the week to a seven-week low. On the geopolitical front, the US and Iran reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding in mid-June. Crude oil extended its decline, with WTI falling below $70/bbl to near pre-war levels, and the earlier geopolitical risk premium largely faded. Mid-week, supported by the delay of full production resumption at Grasberg to early 2028 and dip-buying, copper prices stabilized slightly; late in the week, inflation data released largely met expectations, improving sentiment at the margin. Overall, a hawkish Fed and a strong dollar exerted major downward pressure, while cooler geopolitics eroded supply-side risk premiums, leading copper prices to retreat from highs with a lower center. Fundamentals side, the price pullback activated downstream restocking. After copper prices fell to a seven-week low, downstream dip-buying and restocking orders rebounded notably, with SMM social inventory turning to destocking again; spot premiums remained firm, and demand displayed a price-sensitive pattern of dipping at lows but lacking momentum at higher prices. On the supply side, imported and domestic arrivals were steady, while the approaching month-end delivery caused some disruption to the nearby contract structure. The overall picture reflected price-driven impulse restocking and destocking but a weak consumption base, providing some support to the downside but limited upside momentum for copper prices. Looking ahead to next week, the macro focus will be on the US refined copper tariff ruling on June 30 (which directly affects COMEX-LME spreads and arbitrage flows to ports), along with the progress on the US-Iran agreement and the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz; the hawkish Fed and strong US dollar will continue to weigh on risk appetite in the near term. Fundamentals side, the Grasberg production resumption delay and dip-buying will provide support to the downside, but weak consumption at higher prices and fading geopolitical premiums will cap upside potential. LME copper is expected to trade at $12,700–$13,300/mt, while SHFE copper is expected to trade at 101,000–103,500 yuan/mt, characterized by sideways movement after retreating from highs, with a weaker center; spot premiums are expected to consolidate at lows, with attention on the tariff ruling and the sustainability of restocking after month-end delivery.