SMM July 2 – Price review: As of Thursday this week, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,693.19 yuan/mt, up 11.9 yuan/mt from last Thursday. Shandong was quoted at 2,770–2,830 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from last Thursday; Henan was quoted at 2,790–2,850 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from last Thursday; Shanxi was quoted at 2,800–2,870 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from last Thursday; Guangxi was quoted at 2,630–2,730 yuan/mt, flat from last Thursday; Guizhou was quoted at 2,760–2,800 yuan/mt, flat from last Thursday. Markets outside China: As of July 2, 2026, FOB Western Australia alumina priced at $330/mt, with ocean freight at $32.3/mt and the USD/CNY selling rate near 6.80. This translates to an approximate delivered-to-China-main-port price of around 2,865.02 yuan/mt, a premium of 90.37 yuan/mt over the alumina index. One overseas spot alumina transaction was reported this week, details as follows: (1) On June 25, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina were traded overseas at $330/mt FOB Western Australia, for August shipment. Chinese market: According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, China’s total built capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina stood at 118.42 million mt/year, with operating capacity at 87.95 million mt/year. The national weekly alumina operating rate fell 0.23 percentage points WoW to 74.27%. Shandong’s weekly operating rate rose 0.95 percentage points to 89.31%; Shanxi’s rate rose 0.41 percentage points to 64.31%; Henan’s rate fell 3.5 percentage points WoW to 56.83%; Guangxi’s rate rose 0.43 percentage points WoW to 76.13%; Guizhou’s rate rose 3.13 percentage points WoW to 81%. Spot market: Two transactions were concluded this week. Xinjiang procured 10,000 mt of spot alumina at a delivered price of around 3,135 yuan/mt. Gansu procured spot alumina at a delivered price of 3,000 yuan/mt. As of Thursday this week, while alumina prices continued to trend higher, gains had noticeably narrowed, with prices showing signs of weakness over the past two days. The overall center of spot transaction prices continued to shift lower. Inventory: According to SMM, China’s total alumina inventory edged up 1,000 mt WoW to 7.015 million mt, with overall changes relatively small. Structurally, aluminum smelter raw material inventory fell 47,000 mt to 3.364 million mt, mainly as elevated spot alumina prices prompted some smelters to actively draw down high-cost in-factory inventory, leading to a decline. Alumina refinery in-factory inventory rose slightly by 2,000 mt to 1.231 million mt, as maintenance-related production cuts in Shanxi were offset by production increases in south China, resulting in limited overall change. Ports, new vessels arrived successively, and this week port inventory increased by 31,000 mt to 891,000 mt. Warrant inventory, affected by invoicing issues and the spread between futures and spot prices, saw weakened willingness to ship to delivery warehouse, decreasing by 9,000 mt to 263,000 mt. In-transit and platform inventory increased by 23,000 mt to 1.267 million mt, mainly due to warrants gradually maturing and converting to spot, coupled with continuous shipments from Guangxi, leading to some accumulation of in-transit cargoes. Overall, the operating pattern of alumina is expected to change little next week. Some enterprises using domestic ore may schedule maintenance due to ore supply issues, but the impact on monthly production will be limited, and overall inventory will remain at current levels. Prices, as the regional alumina mismatch gradually eases, the spot price center is expected to pull back, and the subsequent trend will tend to be under pressure. [Data other than publicly available information are based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]

Recently, China’s domestic rhenium market has seen a mild price correction, with prices of raw materials and metal products weakening in tandem. In contrast, overseas rhenium prices have moved higher against the domestic trend, highlighting a clear divergence between domestic and overseas markets. At present, the industrial chain remains in an obvious price game. Upstream sellers hold a cautious shipping attitude and mainly conclude small-volume rigid-demand deals, while downstream buyers stay on the sidelines with a strong willingness to press prices and test the bottom. Overall market trading activity is sluggish, and rhenium prices are expected to move in a range-bound consolidation in the short term. Differing from the downward trend in the domestic market, the overseas rhenium market has maintained a steady upward momentum with continuous gains in overseas quotations. Currently, the overseas price of ammonium rhenate has climbed to around USD 5,300, and the overseas price of rhenium pellets has risen synchronously to USD 375 per troy ounce. Supported by relatively resilient overseas demand and tight supply circulation overseas, rhenium product prices have kept advancing. A stark contrast has formed between domestic and overseas market trends, and the price spread pattern has also changed accordingly. From the perspective of industrial chain fundamentals, the price game atmosphere in the rhenium market remains intense, presenting a two-sided pattern of cautious holding by sellers and price bottom-hunting by buyers. Domestic copper and molybdenum producers are generally prudent in shipments, holding positive expectations for future prices and reluctant to release large volumes of goods at blindly low prices. Most players adopt a strategy of small-batch and demand-based partial shipments, with overall supply release remaining restrained. Downstream metal processors and end-user enterprises hold a low-price procurement mentality. Amid the market correction, their wait-and-see sentiment has intensified, and they are unwilling to build large inventories. Buyers continue to test sellers’ room for price concessions, and purchase-on-demand has become the mainstream market pattern. Overall, the domestic rhenium market lacks major positive catalysts at this stage, leaving raw material and product prices room for weak range-bound volatility in the short term. High overseas market prices offer limited support to domestic prices. The upstream-downstream price game is unlikely to ease in the near term. Without the concentrated release of new rigid demand and price support from the raw material end, domestic rhenium prices are projected to maintain a weak range-bound trend. Market transactions will continue to be dominated by small rigid-demand orders. It is necessary to keep track of the transaction rhythm between upstream and downstream players, changes in raw material inventories, and the transmission impact of overseas price movements on the domestic market. Looking at the domestic raw material market, the price center of rhenium raw materials has moved down recently. Major domestic copper-molybdenum smelters offer rhenium products mainly at CNY 26,000–27,000 per kilogram, with most market transactions settled within this range. Meanwhile, market supply structure has become differentiated. Some small and medium-sized producers adopt low-price shipments to capital 回收，with actual transaction prices falling to CNY 24,000–25,000 per kilogram. The circulation of low-price supplies has dragged down spot market prices and further deepened the correction of raw material prices. The metallic rhenium market adjusted in line with raw material trends. Rhenium pellet prices edged down alongside raw materials, with mainstream current transaction prices standing at around CNY 46,000 per kilogram. On the whole, the metal end shows a strong correlation with raw material price movements. In the absence of major positive drivers, downstream consumption is confined to industrial rigid demand, which is insufficient to drive a steady rebound in product prices. Market quotations adjust flexibly following spot trading sentiment.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 2.5 Futures: During the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 2,824 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,824 yuan/mt, hit a low of 2,781 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,788 yuan/mt, down 36 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 7,776 lots to 383,000 lots, indicating an overall cautious market sentiment. From a technical perspective, the closing price was above MA10 (2,777.80) and MA30 (2,772.63), providing some upward momentum, but below MA5 (2,792.20), limiting gains with overhead pressure still present. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DIF (7.18) crossed above DEA (0.19), with the bullish crossover at low levels weakening and the histogram narrowing to 13.96, suggesting alumina futures are expected to continue weakening in the near term. Industry Updates: 1) Overseas alumina transactions: On February 3, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $310/mt FOB Western Australia for March shipment. The previous transaction was on January 20 at $304/mt FOB Western Australia for February shipment. Ore: As of February 4, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $62.42/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was $39/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $61/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $60/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $56/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was $47/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was $60/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was $73/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was $71.5/mt, down $2/mt from last Friday. Domestic ore side, bauxite production resumptions in Shanxi were active, with currently ample supply. Combined with some domestic ore production lines planning to upgrade to imported ore lines recently, domestic ore demand weakened again, and prices were under pressure. Imported ore side, market transactions were sluggish, with offer prices continuing to decline. Some alumina refineries reported that amid falling ore prices, procurement plans remained cautious. SMM will continue to monitor domestic and overseas mines' production, port shipments, and price trends. Spot Prices: As of February 4, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,619.87 yuan/mt, down 0.27 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,549.77 yuan/mt, down 0.19 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,617.91 yuan/mt, down 0.92 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,604.23 yuan/mt, down 0.26 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,693.56 yuan/mt, down 0.23 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,674 yuan/mt, down 0.33 yuan/mt MoM. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on February 4, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 208.13 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30 AM. Warrant Daily Report: On February 4, total registered alumina warrants increased by 6,944 mt from the previous trading day to 196,300 mt. Shandong region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 7,796 mt. Henan region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 1,203 mt. Guangxi region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 7,505 mt. Gansu region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 17,400 mt. Xinjiang region alumina warrants increased by 6,944 mt from the previous trading day to 162,400 mt. Markets Outside China: As of February 4, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $310/mt, the ocean freight rate was $20.2/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.95. This translated to a selling price at China's major ports of approximately 2,674.83 yuan/mt, which was 54.96 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index price. According to SMM model calculations, the import window was closed. Summary: Overall, as of last Thursday, China's alumina market inventory edged up slightly, with the overall oversupply pattern continuing. Currently, some alumina refineries have started maintenance, with enterprises across various regions arranging production shutdowns of different scales, leading to a decline in the industry operating rate and a weekly production decrease of 35,000 mt to 1.636 million mt. Inventory side, as more enterprises underwent maintenance, alumina in-factory inventory decreased by 3,000 mt to 1.2408 million mt. Aluminum enterprises' raw material inventory edged up slightly to 3.603 million mt, mainly due to continued shipments under long-term contract orders. Warrants, attracted by previously strong futures prices, saw increased delivery willingness, rising by 40,000 mt to 159,100 mt, while in-transit and platform inventory decreased by 30,000 mt as cargoes gradually arrived at end-users. Overall, although the pace of inventory buildup has slowed down compared to the earlier period, overall industry inventory pressure persists, and the destocking progress has fallen short of expectations. Going forward, attention should be paid to the execution of enterprise maintenance plans. If the supply side fails to sustain contraction, inventory is expected to maintain a slight buildup trend next week, and spot alumina prices are expected to be in the doldrums. [Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 4.20 Futures: Last Friday during the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract 2609 opened at 2,762 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 2,777 yuan/mt and a low of 2,748 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,750 yuan/mt, up 84 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 134,000 lots to 274,000 lots, with continued tug-of-war between bulls and bears. From a technical perspective, the closing price was below MA5 (2,780.4), MA10 (2,790.50), and MA30 (2,938.23), indicating certain overhead resistance for upward moves. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DEA (-28.37) crossed above DIF (-54.32), with the "death cross continuing" and the histogram at -31.91. Alumina futures are expected to be in the doldrums in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical impacts, commissioning plans for new capacity, and inventory changes. Ore: As of April 15, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $68.99/mt, up $0.04/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was at $38.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $69/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $61.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $56.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF average price was at $52/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF (washed) average price was at $63/mt, up $0.5/mt from the previous trading day. The Ghana bauxite CIF price was at $78/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was at $81.5/mt, up $3/mt from last Friday. Overall, domestic ore supply remained relatively sufficient, and ore prices were basically stable. For imported ore, amid ocean freight rate fluctuations, some mines controlled shipments, providing certain support for ore prices. However, alumina refinery inventory in China remained at high levels (approximately 92 days), and alumina refineries showed weak purchase willingness, with continued price negotiations between buyers and sellers. Ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term, and the market should focus on the implementation of Guinea's "quota system" policy and ocean freight rate trends. Spot Price: As of April 16, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,680.25 yuan/mt, down 13.32 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,650.82 yuan/mt, down 14.71 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,691.88 yuan/mt, down 16.96 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,685.65 yuan/mt, down 26.21 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,726.82 yuan/mt, down 13.4 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,665.39 yuan/mt, down 13.88 yuan/mt MoM. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on April 16, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 13.25 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract based on the latest transaction price at 11:30 AM. Warrant Daily Report: On April 16, total registered alumina warrants increased by 4,799 mt from the previous trading day to 478,900 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Shandong remained flat from the previous trading day at 58,375 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Henan increased by 4,795 mt from the previous trading day to 36,322 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Guangxi increased by 4 mt from the previous trading day to 17,434 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Gansu remained flat from the previous trading day at 49,847 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang remained flat from the previous trading day at 310,900 mt. Markets Outside China: As of April 16, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was at $306/mt, the ocean freight rate was at $30.05/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.84. This translated to a selling price at major domestic ports of approximately 2,678.42 yuan/mt, which was 1.83 yuan/mt below the alumina index price. According to the SMM model, the import window remained open. Summary: Supply side, the industry operating rate edged up this week, mainly driven by production resumptions after production line upgrades in Shanxi and continued ramp-up of new capacity in Guangxi. Demand side, aluminum operations remained stable overall, with demand holding steady. Domestic inventory continued the inventory buildup trend this week, with total inventory up 48,000 mt WoW. Overall, the alumina market is still in an inventory buildup cycle, primarily driven by continued supply release coupled with increasing port arrivals and warrant registrations. Looking ahead to next week, as new capacity in Guangxi is further released, supply is expected to maintain growth, inventory is likely to continue accumulating, and prices are expected to remain under pressure. [Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

Last week, the CNY/USD exchange rate surged significantly. On April 8, both the onshore and offshore CNY/USD exchange rates rose by over 300 basis points intraday, hitting their highest levels since April 2023. Experts noted that the CNY exchange rate continued to strengthen, driven by external factors such as easing tensions in the Middle East. In terms of internal factors, China's foreign trade environment remained stable, exports continued to grow at a high rate, and domestic consumption and investment growth also improved, providing strong support for the CNY exchange rate.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 4.10 Futures: During the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 2,643 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 2,665 yuan/mt and a low of 2,622 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,641 yuan/mt, down 31 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 2,876 lots to 181,200 lots, as bulls and bears continued to wrestle in the market. From a technical perspective, the closing price was below MA5 (2,679.40), MA10 (2,762.00), and MA30 (2,684.90), indicating certain overhead resistance for upward movement. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DEA (-19.09) crossed above DIF (-57.41), with the "death cross continuing" and the histogram at -76.03. Alumina futures are expected to be in the doldrums in the short term, and continued attention should be paid to geopolitical impacts, commissioning plans for new capacity, and inventory changes. Industry Updates: 1) Ex-China alumina transactions: On April 9, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at a transaction price of $306/mt FOB Western Australia, for May shipment. Ore: As of April 9, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $68.41/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea FOB average price was at $38.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $68.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $61.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $56.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was at $52/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was at $62.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was at $76.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was at $78/mt, flat from last Friday. Overall, domestic ore supply was relatively sufficient, and ore prices were basically stable. For imported ore, against the backdrop of ocean freight rate fluctuations, some mines controlled shipments, providing certain support for ore prices. However, alumina refinery inventories remained at high levels (approximately 92 days), and alumina refineries showed weak purchase willingness, with buyers and sellers continuing to negotiate on pricing. Ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term, and the market should focus on the implementation of Guinea's "quota system" policy and ocean freight rate trends going forward. Spot Prices: As of April 9, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,771.37 yuan/mt, down 9.86 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,752.63 yuan/mt, down 13.9 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,802.74 yuan/mt, down 15.3 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,791.73 yuan/mt, down 11.89 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,809.29 yuan/mt, down 4.96 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,762.94 yuan/mt, down 5.17 yuan/mt MoM. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on April 9, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 95.37 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30 AM. Warrant Daily Report: On April 9, total registered alumina warrants increased by 12,355 mt from the previous trading day to 464,500 mt. By region: Shandong increased by 6,035 mt to 58,035 mt; Henan remained flat at 17,710 mt; Guangxi increased by 301 mt to 29,753 mt; Gansu remained flat at 49,847 mt; Xinjiang increased by 6,019 mt to 309,200 mt. Markets Outside China: As of April 9, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $320/mt, the ocean freight rate was $31.35/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.85. This translated to a selling price at major domestic ports of approximately 2,800.97 yuan/mt, which was 29.6 yuan/mt higher than the alumina index price. According to the SMM model, the import window was closed. Summary: Supply side, as of Thursday this week, the weekly industry operating rate edged up by 0.26 percentage points, mainly because newly commissioned projects in Guangxi were in a slow production ramp-up phase, driving a marginal weekly production increase of 6,000 mt, with overall industry supply continuing to increase. Inventory side, the spot market remained generally tight, with some enterprises still drawing down their own inventories, resulting in destocking of 9,000 mt at plants. Meanwhile, alumina refinery inventories edged up by 6,000 mt, mainly due to inventory buildup from new products as Guangxi ramped up production. Warrant side, the price spread between futures and spot cargo previously offered profit margins, prompting previously registered warrants to be shipped to delivery warehouses, which in turn pushed up alumina futures inventory. Port inventory saw destocking of 32,000 mt this week, mainly because alumina that had previously arrived at ports was transshipped to the Middle East, leading to a decline in port inventory. Overall, the national alumina market saw a slight inventory buildup, mainly driven by increased warrant registrations, which pushed overall inventory levels slightly higher. Looking ahead to next week, current warrant inventory is gradually approaching full capacity, and the inventory buildup trend is expected to continue to be driven by the sustained release of newly commissioned alumina refinery capacity. Alumina inventory is expected to continue showing a slight inventory buildup trend next week. [Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]