On April 2 local time, Velayati, foreign affairs adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader and former foreign minister, said on his personal social media account that the Strait of Hormuz is open to the world, but will forever be closed to the enemies of the Iranian people and their bases in the region. Velayati said that the end of the conflict depends on Iran's decisions and strength, not on the delusions and arrogance of the aggressors.

[How Should Zinc Consumption Be Viewed Against the Backdrop of Geopolitical Conflicts?] Q1 2026 had passed, and the overall recovery in post-holiday consumption was somewhat delayed. How would consumption perform going forward?

[Price Review] At the beginning of the week, silver prices fluctuated upward amid Trump-related remarks and the possibility of easing conflict. However, on Thursday (April 2), after Trump delivered a speech claiming a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in the war against Iran, precious metal prices plunged sharply. The chaotic signals and uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran negotiation situation themselves became a "bearish factor" for precious metal prices. In the short term, heated fund flows and weakening investment demand caused gold and silver to shift from "safe-haven inflation-resistant assets" into "liquidity tools," and the bearish sentiment in precious metals continued. As for the gold/silver ratio, as of April 1, the LBMA gold/silver ratio stood at 63, and is expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend in the short term. [Key Data] Bullish: The final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March in the US was 53.3, below both expectations and the previous reading Bearish: US ADP employment in March was 62,000, below both expectations and the previous reading US retail sales m/m in February rose 0.6, above both expectations and the previous reading The reported US ISM manufacturing PMI for March was 52.7, above the previous reading but below expectations Data and macro releases to watch next week include: April 3 (Friday): The US is set to release seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate for March. The market generally expects March payroll additions to rebound to 55,000. Bloomberg forecasts that, driven by a rebound in jobs after the end of the strike, nonfarm payrolls in March will increase by 80,000, while the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.4. April 9 (Wednesday): US February PCE Price Index April 10 (Thursday): US March CPI data On the Middle East conflict timeline, US President Trump postponed the airstrike on Iranian energy facilities to 20:00 ET on April 6. Trump said the US would "soon" withdraw from the conflict with Iran, but if the situation changes after the withdrawal, it may still re-engage. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, on April 1, Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, posted a message addressing US President Trump, saying that the Strait of Hormuz would definitely reopen, but not to the US. [Price Forecast] In the short term, the direction of the US-Iran conflict and cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts are the main factors affecting silver prices. The lasting impact of persistently high oil prices has kept precious metal prices under pressure. On industrial demand, after the Middle East conflict pushed up energy costs, expectations for global manufacturing activity may be reassessed, and silver has been hit by the dual blow of "safe-haven failure + collapsing demand narrative." On China fundamentals side, end-user enterprises showed weak willingness to stock up raw materials in April. On the one hand, declining PV end-user production schedules led to weaker expectations for new silver nitrate orders. On the other hand, other end-users showed strong caution and reluctance to buy on falling prices, aggressively bargaining down premiums for procurement. As the SHFE April delivery approaches, suppliers generally said that amid difficult spot silver ingot transactions, they may mainly monetize through delivery. Social inventory of silver ingots may see a slight accumulation, and premiums are still expected to have room to pull back further. Next week, the basic situation of silver prices remaining in the doldrums is expected to be difficult to improve, but close attention should be paid to disruptions to market sentiment from changes in geopolitical conflict and adjustments in fund flows.

【SMM Steel】Hyundai Steel issued FAC to SMS group after upgrading its Dangjin #1 CGL. The two-phase project integrated X-Pact® automation and upgraded hydraulics to improve strip quality and stability. Stage 1 added a new strip washer/dryer. Stage 2 focused on the skin-pass mill for precise flatness. The upgrades reduce downtime and extend equipment life, building on a partnership since 2005.

SMM, April 2: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,765 yuan/mt, then moved sideways at the high range of 16,690-16,750 yuan/mt, before dropping back slightly late in the session to a low of 16,675 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,695 yuan/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, up 40 yuan/mt, or 0.24%. Driven by bullish sentiment, lead prices overall fluctuated upward today. In terms of supply, the resumption of work at primary lead enterprises drove supply growth, while in the secondary lead market, work resumptions and maintenance proceeded in parallel, with some small and medium-sized plants planning to cut production due to insufficient raw material; demand side, elevated lead prices suppressed downstream purchase willingness, and spot transactions were weak. SMM expected lead prices to continue consolidating in the short term. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data was processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Rare Earth Flash] Australia’s Astron released the bankable feasibility study report for Phase I of the Donald rare earth and mineral sands project in Victoria, confirming the project’s strong economic value, and plans to make the final investment decision in Q2 2026. The report showed that total project investment was about AUD 450 million, pre-tax net present value was AUD 759 million, the internal yield was 19.3%, the mine life was about 40 years, and rare earth concentrate is expected to be produced in Q1 2028. The project’s main products include key rare earths such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium, as well as zircon and titanium products. Phase I is expected to produce about 7,100 mt of rare earth concentrate annually.