On Monday (June 16) local time, Joachim Nagel, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, stated that despite the eurozone's inflation rate reaching the target level, the ECB should not rush to further cut interest rates. Nagel, who is also the President of the Deutsche Bundesbank (Germany's central bank), said in a speech in Frankfurt, "We should continue to make decisions on a case-by-case basis based on the data from each meeting, rather than rushing into any actions." Preliminary statistical data released by Eurostat earlier this month showed that the eurozone's inflation rate rose 1.9% YoY in May, down from 2.2% in April and below the ECB's 2% target. The core inflation rate, excluding energy, food, and alcohol and tobacco prices, was 2.3%. Two days later, the ECB lowered its three key interest rates by 25 basis points each, marking the eighth interest rate cut since June 2024. The deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate were reduced to 2%, 2.15%, and 2.4%, respectively, the lowest levels in at least two years. Nagel pointed out, "The current interest rate levels provide us with good conditions to respond to various economic changes." He said there is currently no reason to further ease monetary policy and still recommended adopting a prudent monetary policy and communication strategy. He added that the current monetary policy no longer seems to be "restrictive," meaning that interest rates will no longer further suppress inflation by curbing economic activity. Despite inflation data suggesting that prices may stabilize at the 2% target level, Nagel emphasized that the ECB still needs to closely monitor price stability amid the current uncertain backdrop, including the situation in the Middle East. Last week, Boris Vujcic, another member of the ECB's Governing Council, also stated that the central bank should wait until at least September before delving deeper into discussions on interest rate actions. The Governor of the Croatian National Bank said, "We feel we are in a very good position now, and it is worth waiting for more economic data." Vujcic said, "In my view, obtaining another forecast and then deciding on the next steps, hopefully with clearer trade relations by then, would be preferable."

The US dollar is currently in a period of volatility, and many European Central Bank (ECB) officials are calling for an opportunity to enhance the international status of the euro. For instance, Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB's Executive Board, believes that as investors turn to Europe, it is a favorable time to strengthen the global position of the euro. So far this year, investors have been selling off the US dollar, and data shows that the dollar has also been depreciating against other major currencies. At the 31st Dubrovnik Economic Conference held last Saturday (June 7), Schnabel stated that there is currently a certain opportunity to increase the international role of the euro. She added that there are signs that investors are looking to the European continent to diversify their portfolios, which she described as a "positive confidence effect." Prior to this, European policymakers, including ECB President Christine Lagarde, have also indicated that officials are exploring ways to turn the US's attacks on global trade into an advantage for the eurozone. It is worth mentioning that Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs has recently expressed optimism about the future trend of the euro. In a report, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote that the US non-farm payrolls data released last Friday aligns with the slowdown trend in the real economy and should weigh on the US dollar for some time. Strategists including Kamakshya Trivedi wrote in a June 6 report, "The depreciation of the US dollar may be entering a new phase, and we still believe this situation will continue." Goldman Sachs has also raised its three-month forecast for the euro-dollar exchange rate to 1.17, its six-month forecast to 1.20, and its 12-month forecast to 1.25, citing the slowdown in US economic activity and a shift in global investors' interests. Previously, the institution's three-month forecast for this currency pair was 1.12, its six-month forecast was 1.15, and its 12-month forecast was 1.20. Is the euro set for a "golden moment"? Last Saturday, Schnabel also mentioned that talks with financial market participants showed that investors are increasingly interested in diversifying their investments and are turning their attention to Europe, "which is another piece of good news." She also pointed out that another reason for the high profile of European markets is the expected increase in public spending on defense and infrastructure in Europe. "In the case of Germany, it has significant fiscal space, and investors are actually very positive to see that Germany has finally abandoned austerity policies." Schnabel emphasized that more investment in Europe has eased financial conditions in the region, "which is another very positive impact."She also proposed the need for a large European bond market to strengthen the euro's global standing and suggested considering joint bond issuance to fund European public goods. In recent weeks, numerous ECB officials have intensively voiced calls to accelerate the enhancement of the euro's international status. At month-end May, President Lagarde stated that Trump's unpredictable policies presented a "golden opportunity" to bolster the euro's role, urging Europe to leverage this moment to claim more financial privileges currently exclusive to the dollar. She noted these shifts "open the door for a 'global euro moment'," emphasizing that politicians should seize this opportunity. Spanish central bank governor Jose Luis Escriva also stressed during a June 8 interview, "The dollar's dominance as the international reserve currency appears to be peaking." Escriva pointed out, "The euro has potential to rival the dollar, particularly if the eurozone maintains macro-economic and institutional stability. With a robust economy and trade volumes surpassing the US, Europe could strengthen the euro's role as a reserve and reference currency in international trade still dominated by the dollar." Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel echoed similar views but cautioned against excessive erosion of dollar influence. Nagel noted on Sunday, "From Europe's perspective, we need to strengthen the euro and make the continent more attractive to foreign investors. Of course, we must also closely monitor the dollar and hope it remains stable."

》【Live】Analysis of Global Lead and Zinc Concentrates Supply-Demand Balance in 2025, Price Outlook, and Trading Opportunities 》Impact of New National Standards on the EV Industry, Development Status and Outlook of Lead-Acid Batteries, Sodium-Ion Batteries, and Secondary Zinc【Live from Lead-Zinc Summit】 SMM, April 10: Metal Market: By the close of the day, domestic base metals, except for SHFE tin, all rose, with SHFE copper leading the gains with a surge of 3.86%. SHFE zinc and SHFE nickel both rose over 2%, with SHFE zinc up 2.92% and SHFE nickel up 2.26%. SHFE aluminum and SHFE lead both rose over 1%, with SHFE aluminum up 1.85% and SHFE lead up 1.97%. Alumina main contract rose 1.27%. In addition, lithium carbonate main contract rose 1.53%, polysilicon main contract rose 1.01%, and silicon metal main contract rose 0.84%. The main contract for European container shipping surged 14.47%. In the overseas market, as of 15:03, overseas metals collectively rallied, with LME tin leading the gains with a surge of 5.23%. LME nickel rose 4.62%, and LME copper rose 4.35%. LME lead and LME zinc both rose over 3%, with LME lead up 3.15% and LME zinc up 3.38%. LME aluminum rose 2.98%. In the ferrous metals series, except for stainless steel, all rose, with stainless steel down 0.28%. Iron ore rose 3.06%, HRC and rebar both rose 2.01%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell 0.38%, while coke rose 1.91%. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:03, COMEX gold rose 1.85%, and COMEX silver rose 2.5%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 3.21%, and SHFE silver rose 3.44%. Marex analyst Edward Meir said: "If we enter a period of slow growth (which is our base case scenario), we believe interest rates will eventually fall and push gold higher, while inflation concerns will persist for most of the year due to tariffs. It is indeed possible to see $3,200 by the end of the month, or even earlier." Market as of 15:03 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: 【NBS: March CPI Down 0.1% YoY, YoY Decline Narrowed Significantly; PPI Down 2.5% YoY】 Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the CPI and PPI data for March 2025: In March, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4% MoM and 0.1% YoY, with the YoY decline narrowing significantly; the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.4% MoM and 2.5% YoY. This was mainly affected by seasonal and international input factors. From a marginal perspective, the policy effects of boosting consumer demand have further emerged, with core CPI rebounding significantly, up 0.5% YoY. The supply-demand structure has improved, and prices have shown some positive changes. 》Click for details 【China’s SME Development Index at 89.5 in Q1, Highest Since 2020】 The China Association of Small and Medium Enterprises released today (10th) that in Q1 2025, China’s SME Development Index rose significantly, reaching the highest level since 2020. In Q1, China’s SME Development Index was 89.5, up 0.5 points from Q4 last year. SMEs in social services, industry, transportation, and information technology software performed the best. The operating rate of SMEs continued to rise, with the proportion of fully operational enterprises up 11 percentage points compared to Q4 last year. ► On April 10, the central parity rate of the RMB in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.2092 yuan per US dollar. US Dollar: As of 15:03, the US dollar index fell 0.2%. The minutes of the US Fed meeting released on April 9 showed that at the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting, Fed officials noted the risk of stagflation in the economy. According to the FOMC meeting minutes from March 18-19, almost all Fed officials believed that inflation risks were tilted to the upside, while employment risks were tilted to the downside. Currently, traders are awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released later today, as well as the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday. Data: Today, China’s March M2 money supply YoY (time uncertain from 0410-0417), China’s March social financing aggregate year-to-date, China’s March new yuan loans year-to-date, US March CPI YoY unadjusted, US March core CPI YoY unadjusted, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5, and US continuing jobless claims for the week ending March 29 will be released. Additionally, it is worth noting: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin participates in a dialogue at the Washington Economic Club; the Fed releases the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting; RBA Governor Bullock speaks; the Bundesbank releases its monthly report; 2025 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid speaks on the economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers a speech titled "Navigating Economic Fog" at a summit and participates in a Q&A session. Crude Oil: As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets fell, with US oil down 0.43% and Brent oil down 0.53%, as trade concerns lingered and industry reports showed an increase in US crude oil inventories. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released an inventory report on Wednesday showing that in the week ending April 4, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels to 442.3 million barrels, nearly double the market’s expected increase of 1.4 million barrels. IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said: "We expect oil prices to resume their downward trend once the optimism around the recent tariff suspension fades. Demand-side headwinds remain." Investors are also watching mixed supply-side factors. ANZ Research analysts said on Thursday: "Prices received some support after Keystone declared force majeure on oil shipments." But they warned that signs of increased OPEC supply pose downside risks to the oil market. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) said on Wednesday that one of the two Black Sea mooring points that had been closed has resumed crude oil loading. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► Aluminum Prices Rebounded Significantly, Secondary Aluminum Followed with Weak Enthusiasm【ADC12 Price Daily Review】 ► EMM Market Stalled, Spot Market Remained Stable【SMM EMM Daily Review】 ► Aluminum Prices Surged, Aluminum Scrap Followed the Rise【Aluminum Scrap Daily Review】 ► April 10: SHFE Aluminum Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Aluminum Billet Trading Remained Unoptimistic【Aluminum Billet Spot Daily Review】 ► Silver Rebounded After Negative Factors Exhausted, Market Trading Active【SMM Daily Review】 ► Rare Earth Prices Continued Fluctuating Trend, Market Trading Cooled Down【SMM Rare Earth Daily Review】 ► US Tariff Policy Eased, Stainless Steel Market Remained Stable and Watchful【SMM Stainless Steel Spot Daily Review】

SMM April 10 News: In the metal market, domestic base metals mostly fell overnight, with SHFE tin down 5.72%. SHFE copper slightly declined. SHFE nickel dropped 1.01%. SHFE lead fell 0.06%. SHFE aluminum decreased 0.1%, while SHFE zinc rose 0.77%. Additionally, alumina increased 2.29%. In the ferrous metals series, iron ore rose 1.09%, stainless steel fell 1.81%, rebar increased 0.55%, and HRC climbed 0.78%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal dropped 0.65%, and coke rose 0.49%. LME metals mostly gained overnight, with LME copper up 2.79%. LME zinc increased 2.22%, LME tin fell 5.93%, LME lead dropped 0.24%, LME aluminum rose 0.34%, and LME nickel climbed 1.69%. In the precious metals sector, COMEX gold rose 3.67%, and COMEX silver increased 4.31%. SHFE gold rose 1.48%, and SHFE silver climbed 2.21%. As of 8:11 AM on April 10, the overnight closing market. Click to view the SMM futures data dashboard. On the macro front, domestically, a strong countermeasure was announced: an additional 50% tariff on all imports originating from the US. On April 8, Eastern Time, the US increased the previously announced 34% so-called "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese exports to the US by 50% to 84%. The State Council Tariff Commission announced on April 9 that starting from 12:01 PM on April 10, the additional tariff rates on imports originating from the US would be adjusted from 34% to 84%. Click for details. The State Council Information Office released a white paper on issues concerning China-US economic and trade relations, clarifying facts and stating China's policy stance. The white paper emphasized that the essence of China-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win. As two major countries with different development stages and economic systems, it is normal for China and the US to have differences and frictions in economic and trade cooperation. The key is to respect each other's core interests and major concerns and find proper solutions through dialogue and consultation. Trade wars have no winners, and protectionism is no way out. The success of China and the US is an opportunity rather than a threat to each other. It is hoped that the US will work with China in the same direction, following the guidance of the leaders' phone call, and resolve respective concerns through equal dialogue and consultation based on the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, jointly promoting the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China-US economic and trade relations. Click for details. Xiao Lu, Deputy Director of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, stated at a press conference on April 9 that China's foreign trade is confident and capable of facing various risks and challenges. Xiao Lu pointed out that in 2024, China's goods imports and exports crossed two trillion-yuan thresholds, reaching 43 trillion yuan, with the international export market share steadily increasing, expected to reach around 14.7%. China's open door will only open wider, and China will firmly practice true multilateralism, firmly maintain global trade order, and work with more trading partners to achieve win-win results and inject more stability into global trade growth. The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) data showed that domestic retail sales of passenger NEVs in March reached 991,000 units, up 38.0% YoY. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the CPCA, stated on the 9th that the US tariff increase provides greater development space for Chinese EVs in overseas markets. "In the past, Chinese cars faced a complex environment in overseas markets, but now the world trade order is showing a multipolar development trend, which has brought relatively independent development space for Chinese cars in various countries." Cui Dongshu believes that there will be better opportunities, especially in intelligent electrification. "The core of intelligent electrification is electrification, and the core of electrification is the industry chain. China has a huge advantage in the electrification industry chain. We believe that in the future, we should strive to develop small and micro EVs and plug-in hybrid models to achieve our expansion in overseas markets." The SHFE announced adjustments to the trading margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for fuel oil and other futures contracts. Starting from the close of settlement on April 10, 2025 (Thursday), the price fluctuation limits for fuel oil and petroleum asphalt futures contracts will be adjusted to 9%, with hedging margin ratios adjusted to 10% and speculative margin ratios adjusted to 11%. The price fluctuation limits for natural rubber futures contracts will be adjusted to 8%, with hedging margin ratios adjusted to 9% and speculative margin ratios adjusted to 10%. The price fluctuation limits for gold and silver futures contracts will be adjusted to 11%, with hedging margin ratios adjusted to 12% and speculative margin ratios adjusted to 13%. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced that starting from the close of settlement on April 10, 2025 (Thursday), the price fluctuation limits for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts will be adjusted to 9%, with hedging margin ratios adjusted to 10% and speculative margin ratios adjusted to 11%. In the US dollar market, the US dollar index fell 0.01% overnight to 102.97. Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said, "As the trade situation continues to be an issue, I think over time, people may bet on the decline of the US dollar's role in global trade." The market is concerned that tariffs will stimulate inflation and hinder economic growth. The Fed meeting minutes showed that Fed policymakers almost unanimously warned last month that the US economy faces the risk of rising inflation while growth slows, with some policymakers pointing out that "difficult trade-offs" may be faced in the future. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the market believes there is a 72% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in June. The market now hopes that Thursday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide more information. In other currencies, European Central Bank Governing Council member Rehn said that since the March interest rate meeting, downside risks have intensified, providing reasons for continuing rate cuts at the April meeting. Tariff increases and increased uncertainty have adversely affected economic growth in the eurozone and Finland in the short term. A significant tariff increase will boost US inflation. But in the eurozone, the impact on inflation may be two-way, with tariff increases increasing price pressures and slowing growth suppressing them. In terms of data, today will see the release of China's March M2 money supply YoY (April 10-17, time uncertain), China's March social financing scale year-to-date, China's March new yuan loans year-to-date, China's March PPI YoY, China's March CPI YoY, US March CPI YoY unadjusted, US March core CPI YoY unadjusted, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5, and US continuing jobless claims for the week ending March 29. Additionally, it is worth noting: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin participates in a dialogue event at the Washington Economic Club; the Fed releases the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting; Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock speaks; the Bundesbank releases its monthly report; 2025 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid speaks on the economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers a speech titled "Navigating Economic Fog" at a summit and participates in a Q&A session. In the crude oil market, both oil futures rose sharply overnight, with US oil up 5.25% and Brent oil up 4.62%. Oil prices surged, rebounding from a four-year low hit at the start of the session, with bargain hunting emerging after recent sharp declines. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report showed that US crude oil inventories increased last week due to higher imports and exports falling to the lowest since January, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined. The EIA said that in the week ending April 4, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels to 442.3 million barrels, compared with market expectations of an increase of 1.4 million barrels. Data showed that US crude oil net imports increased by 360,000 barrels per day to just under 3 million barrels per day, while exports decreased by 637,000 barrels per day to 3.2 million barrels per day. However, the OPEC+ producer group decided last week to increase May production by 411,000 barrels per day, which analysts believe could push the market into surplus, limiting oil's gains. (Webstock Inc.)

The National People's Congress on Tuesday is set to approve plans by the Ministry of Finance to issue over 1 trillion yuan government bonds to boost infrastructure investment and economic growth. Navigator Group, the world's second-largest asset manager, is bullish on longer-term U.S.

LME copper opened at $7903.5/mt overnight, with its session low and high at $7890/mt and $7995/mt before closing up 0.57% at $7985.5/mt. Trading volume was 20,000 lots, and open interest was 267,000 lots. SHFE 2312 copper contract opened at 65920 yuan/mt overnight, with its session low and high at 65820 yuan/mt and 66320 yuan/mt before closing up 0.5% at 66250 yuan/mt.