On May 6, 2026, iron ore futures rose sharply today, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 816 yuan/mt, up 2.84% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices rose 10-18 yuan/mt from the previous day. Traders showed increased quoting activity, while steel mill purchases were mostly driven by rigid demand with few inquiries; overall spot transaction sentiment remained sluggish. The latest SMM survey data showed that daily average pig iron production edged down by 9,800 mt to 2.4307 million mt; the blast furnace operating rate declined 0.19% to 89.61%. This indicated that overall rigid demand for iron ore, though slightly lower, remained at a high level. Looking ahead, as previously constrained port inventory was released and well absorbed by the market, upward resistance on ore prices has eased amid continuously increasing destocking speed, and there is currently strong upward momentum. However, as raw material costs continue to climb and profits remain under pressure, steel mills may increase maintenance intensity going forward. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term, while medium and long-term trends still depend on the ability of steel mills to absorb supply.

ArcelorMittal has adjusted its long-term strategy, stating that it will not initiate any new electric arc furnace (EAF) investments until its 2 Mt/y reference project in Dunkirk, France, is nearing completion. The group's 2025 Sustainability Report indicates that due to high energy prices in Europe (well above $30/MWh) and slow progress in green hydrogen infrastructure, the company will adopt a "flexible and adaptable" strategy, prioritizing financial discipline. The Dunkirk EAF project, costing €1.3 billion, has a planned capacity of 2 Mt/y and is expected to begin production in 2029, reaching full capacity in 2030-2031. The new EAF will replace two existing blast furnaces with a combined capacity of 1.8 Mt/y.

The Indian Ministry of Steel reaffirmed in late April 2026 its goal to reach 300 million metric tons of crude steel capacity by 2030, rising from the current 168 million tons. Approximately 64% of this planned expansion relies on the coal-based blast furnace method, creating significant demand for metallurgical coal. To support this growth, India is diversifying its coking coal imports, with the U.S. share of imports increasing to 15% by 2025, reducing reliance on Australian supply which previously commanded 72% of the market.

On April 21, 2026, SMS group announced that its subsidiary Paul Wurth has entered a definitive agreement with Tata Steel to convert Blast Furnace E at the Jamshedpur plant into an electrically assisted syngas smelter (EASyMelt). This world-first industrial-scale implementation uses plasma torches to superheat syngas, which is then injected into the furnace to replace coke. The project aims to cut CO2 emissions by over 50%, providing a critical blueprint for decarbonizing existing "brownfield" blast furnace assets globally.

This week, ferrous metals moved sideways and upward. During the week, as US-Iran negotiations made no progress and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, combined with declining US crude oil inventories, Brent crude oil surged sharply, driving coking coal higher. Although BHP port spot cargoes were available for purchase, which was bearish for market sentiment, futures had already priced in related expectations earlier, so iron ore pullback was limited and cost support was relatively neutral. The Politburo meeting held mid-week had low direct correlation with ferrous metals, and ferrous metals fluctuated at highs during the week. Spot market side, end-users restocked at low prices before the holiday, and as futures rose in the latter half of the week, speculative demand was also released...

[Domestic Iron Ore Brief] Domestic iron ore concentrates market prices edged up this week. By region, prices in Tangshan, Qian'an, and Qianxi in Hebei edged up by 1-5 yuan; prices in Chaoyang, Beipiao, and Jianping in western Liaoning were basically flat; prices in east China rose by 10-15 yuan/mt.