This week, finished steel continued its gradual decline, while raw materials began to stabilize, with coking coal rebounding to some extent. During the week, rumors about a coal mine accident in Shanxi and customs clearance restrictions at the Mongolian border spread, boosting sentiment. Coupled with the China Mineral Resources talks, the raw materials side rebounded from lows. In the second half of the week, as rumors of maintenance at steel mills across various regions emerged, negative feedback expectations intensified somewhat, and raw materials pulled back. Approaching the weekend, however, the 10th round of coke price increases was initiated, pushing coking coal and coke futures higher. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics of end-users became increasingly evident, with the market restocking at low prices as needed. With spot prices remaining relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread continued to widen...

As of Friday, SiMn 6517 (cash) in north China was at 5,600-5,700 yuan/mt, down WoW; in south China, SiMn 6517 (cash) was at 5,650-5,750 yuan/mt, down WoW, and SiMn 6014 (cash) there was at 5,450-5,500 yuan/mt, down WoW. Recently, SiMn futures moved weakly sideways in a narrow range, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, low willingness to sell among producers, and weak spot and futures prices.

July 3 Brief: Northern ports: South African high-iron ore 30.5-31.4 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African semi-carbonate ore 37.2-37.7 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Gabonese ore 40.6-41 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; 46% Australian lumps 43.3-43.8 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African medium-iron ore 37-37.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW. Southern ports: South African high-iron ore 33.5-34 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African semi-carbonate ore 36.5-37 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Gabonese ore 41-41.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; 46% Australian lumps 43.2-43.7 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African medium-iron ore 37-37.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW. The manganese ore market is stable but stagnant, end-use demand is weak, and buying and selling are dominated by wait-and-see sentiment.

This week, the domestic iron ore concentrates market weakened slightly with regional divergence. Prices in Tangshan, Qian’an, and Qianxi of Hebei were basically stable; western Liaoning’s Chaoyang, Beipiao, and Jianping areas pulled back slightly by 5-10 yuan/mt; east China pulled back 10-15 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to next week, China’s iron ore supply tightness is expected to be hard to ease. Demand side, according to SMM tracking data, hot metal production of steel mill blast furnaces may pull back slightly, weakening support for iron ore concentrates. Steel mills’ desire to bargain down prices will remain dominant. The tug-of-war between sellers and buyers persists. Next week, the domestic iron ore market is expected to be in the doldrums overall. [SMM Steel]

Rebar prices drifted lower this week. The nationwide average price now stands at 3,089 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt WoW from last Friday. Supply side, steel mill margins continued to shrink. A few blast furnace steel mills have gradually arranged maintenance and production cut plans, but most are still operating at previous levels. Attention will remain on the extent of production cuts. Among EAF steel mills in different regions, margins diverged slightly. In southwest China, electricity price subsidies during the rainy season kept margins relatively favorable, and most mills maintained previous output levels for now. However, in east China, adjustments to critical peak electricity pricing during the summer led to shorter operating hours, while in south China, high inventory pressure at steel mills also prompted reduced operating hours. Overall EAF production declined. Demand side, intermittent rainfall in east China this week slowed project construction progress. In central and northwest China, low-priced inflows from other regions encouraged downstream buyers to adopt a wait-and-see stance. Overall transaction performance was mediocre. Inventory side, total inventory continued to edge up. Given weak demand expectations, social inventory will remain in a phase of periodic accumulation. Looking ahead, supply-side margins turned worse, weakening production incentives, but soft demand provides limited support to bottom prices. While raw material side saw some sentiment-driven momentum, the underlying rebar fundamentals remain weak. Short-term market prices are likely to consolidate near the bottom. Future attention will be on the pace of inventory buildup.

BHP said blast furnace decarbonisation remains crucial as over 70% of global steel output still uses the BF-BOF route. The company noted that EAF and DRI expansion faces scrap supply and iron ore quality constraints, while BF emissions can be reduced through recycling, hydrogen injection, CCUS and higher-grade raw materials. With new integrated steel plants costing around 4 billion USD and 85% of China and India’s BF capacity less than 20 years old, full replacement remains difficult in the near term.