Driven by rising price expectations, resilient Southeast Asian infrastructure demand, and the release of backlogged foreign orders, China's stainless steel exports rose 27.1% MoM to approximately 394,000 tons in April, with cold-rolled coils leading shipment growth. Vietnam emerged as the top buyer at 66,000 tons, its second-highest single-month volume on record; while India's imports hit a 19-month high of 36,000 tons, supported by an extended BIS certification exemption to fill domestic supply gaps. Easing regional tensions also drove China's Middle East exports up 45.7% MoM to 43,000 tons.

Policy Intensity Reshaping the Landscape, Costs Returning to Highs, and Structural Tightening of Market Supply

India’s Ministry of Steel has extended the mandatory BIS certification exemption for stainless steel flat products, including semi-finished and final products, until October 26, 2026. This extension, covering IS 14650 standards, aims to bridge a domestic supply deficit caused by energy shortages and geopolitical tensions. Market observers noted that the relaxed origin tracking effectively facilitates direct Chinese imports, bypassing previous indirect routes. Leveraging strong price advantages, Chinese suppliers are rapidly reclaiming market share in grades like 304 and 316, placing significant competitive pressure on other exporters, particularly Chinese Taiwan mills.

On April 16, 2026, the stainless steel market saw major shifts. The EU's move to cut quotas by 47% and double tariffs to 50% in July triggered panic buying in Europe. India extended BIS certification until late September to ensure supply flexibility. Supported by Indonesia’s HPM formula adjustments, export prices remain firm, with slight gains in Foshan 304 spot prices. Rising logistics costs due to Middle East tensions and new trade barriers are collectively pushing up global trade expenses.

Policy & Trends: India has exempted three types of stainless steel flat products from BIS certification until Sep 2026, easing import barriers. Japan’s Metal One fully acquired Thailand’s PSCTH to boost high-end exports. In Taiwan, China, traders tentatively raised 304 prices by NT$2,000/ton following mill hikes, though holiday trading remains quiet. Market Drivers: 304 spot prices hold at 14,350–14,400 RMB/ton, with Indonesia FOB at $2,082.5/ton. While Middle East tensions keep logistics and fuel surcharges high, providing a strong price floor, weak downstream demand is keeping the market in a narrow range-bound pattern for now.

New Delhi quietly renewed BIS certification waivers through September 2026, even as it talks tough on Chinese overcapacity. The contradiction reveals more about India's industrial gaps than its trade policy convictions