Tariffs, certification regimes and quotas, not demand, have redrawn Indonesia's 4.7 million-mt export map since 2021: China's share has halved, India has quadrupled, and Europe's door has narrowed to a slab-shaped hole.

The global stainless steel market navigated a series of sharp sentiment. The opening weeks saw Indonesia's mill closures and price hikes push the cost narrative to its highest point of the year, before a combination of easing geopolitical tensions triggered the first price reduction since December 2025. The month's defining characteristic was similar to April's. What differentiated May was the sharply higher amplitude of both the policy signals and the emotional swings that accompanied them.

India's Reliance Industries has officially put its HJT modules into production, with the first batch of 200 MW delivered. The module power reaches 720 W and has obtained India's BIS certification. Energy conversion efficiency has increased by 10%, while the degradation rate has decreased by 25%. Reliance Industries plans to subsequently expand production to 10 GW/year, marking the entry of its advanced PV manufacturing capabilities into a phase of substantial implementation.

Driven by rising price expectations, resilient Southeast Asian infrastructure demand, and the release of backlogged foreign orders, China's stainless steel exports rose 27.1% MoM to approximately 394,000 tons in April, with cold-rolled coils leading shipment growth. Vietnam emerged as the top buyer at 66,000 tons, its second-highest single-month volume on record; while India's imports hit a 19-month high of 36,000 tons, supported by an extended BIS certification exemption to fill domestic supply gaps. Easing regional tensions also drove China's Middle East exports up 45.7% MoM to 43,000 tons.

Policy Intensity Reshaping the Landscape, Costs Returning to Highs, and Structural Tightening of Market Supply

India’s Ministry of Steel has extended the mandatory BIS certification exemption for stainless steel flat products, including semi-finished and final products, until October 26, 2026. This extension, covering IS 14650 standards, aims to bridge a domestic supply deficit caused by energy shortages and geopolitical tensions. Market observers noted that the relaxed origin tracking effectively facilitates direct Chinese imports, bypassing previous indirect routes. Leveraging strong price advantages, Chinese suppliers are rapidly reclaiming market share in grades like 304 and 316, placing significant competitive pressure on other exporters, particularly Chinese Taiwan mills.