[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Maintained Wild Swings, Spot Market Trading Remained Sluggish]

【SMM Steel】GEM's annual report shows that India accounts for over 60% of new BF steel capacity worldwide, with a total of 319 mln tonnes per year announced or under construction globally. India and China together account for 86% of new coal-based steel projects. An additional 80 mln tonnes of BF capacity are slated for modernization, while official closure plans cover only 141 mln tonnes, potentially leading to a net increase of 88 mln tonnes by 2035. ~93% of India's new pig iron capacity is BF-based, but only 5% of planned BF capacity has reached the construction stage. EAF share of global steel production is 34%, while only 2% of DRI capacity uses green hydrogen.

【SMM Vanadium Express】Australian Vanadium Ltd. reported progress on its flagship project, confirming the completion of its bankable feasibility study (BFS) and the initiation of financing discussions.

【SMM Stainless Steel Market】The EU CBAM Committee released draft provisional benchmarks on November 19, revealing a stark contrast in carbon costs between production methods. The draft indicates that the carbon emission benchmark for the Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) route is approximately five times higher than that of the Scrap-Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) route. For the 2026-2027 period, the default benchmark is set at 2.152 tCO2/t for cold-rolled stainless steel flats and 2.021 tCO2/t for hot-rolled. Set for full implementation on Jan 1, 2026, these benchmarks will significantly increase costs for high-carbon BF steel exports to the EU, making low-carbon EAF products more economically competitive.

Cold rolling capacity increased by 60% over the past decade. From 2015 to 2020, cold rolling capacity grew steadily and rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 9.7%, peaking at around 11% in 2020. Starting in 2021, the Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel Industry promoted an increase in the cold rolling capacity utilization rate, leading to a significant rise in cold rolling production, while the growth rate of cold rolling capacity slowed down, with the average annual growth rate from 2021 to 2024 slowing to 2.9%.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminium (INALUM) is advancing plans to significantly boost its production capacity by constructing a new aluminum smelter. A Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) is currently underway, evaluating key scenarios for the plant's location, either near an energy source or close to the alumina raw material source in Mempawah, West Kalimantan. This study is targeted for completion in early 2026. Following the BFS, a Final Investment Decision (FID) is expected, with the project's construction phase estimated to take three years. The goal is to commence production by 2028-2029. A primary focus of the study is securing a reliable and economical energy supply. While INALUM's existing Kuala Tanjung smelter uses hydropower to produce "Green Aluminium" for export markets, the new Mempawah facility is considering a coal-fired power plant (PLTU) due to the low cost of domestic coal, making the expansion economically viable. This strategy will create two product brands: a certified green aluminum from Kuala Tanjang and a more cost-competitive product from Mempawah for domestic consumption. The company is also open to future integration of renewable energy. This expansion is projected to increase INALUM's total aluminum production from the current 277,000 tons per year to 600,000 tons annually.