Lu Fang, CEO of VOYAH Automobile, said that China has become the world's largest automotive market. "Being big means having the demeanor of a big player," not just in scale, but also in vision and responsibility. Behind every automaker are hundreds of thousands, millions, or even tens of millions of families. Standing under the "spotlight," we must withstand the test of practice, serve users diligently, and create positive value for society. The market is not a public opinion arena; the foundation of a brand lies in laboratories, on production lines, and in the real-life scenarios of users. We should return the spotlight to the products, hand the microphone to technology, focus on the ability to serve users rather than the ability to deceive them, sincerely release accurate information to the market and society, and sincerely respond to users' expectations of enterprises, allowing public opinion to return to focusing on products, technology, services, and brand building. We also call on OEMs to join hands with the supply chain to create a "win-win chain" for high-quality development and jointly maintain the prosperity and stability of the market.

On June 13, at the 2025 SMM (13th) Minor Metal Industry Conference - Antimony Forum, hosted by Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. and SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., Yi Xiaobo, Senior Advisor/Senior Engineer at the National Power and ESS Battery Product Quality Supervision and Inspection Center, shared insights on "The Fundamentals of Supply and Demand in the Battery Market and the Application and Development of Antimony Metal in Lead-Antimony Alloy Plates for Batteries.

On June 13, at the 2025 SMM (13th) Minor Metal Industry Conference - Antimony Forum hosted by Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. and SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM) , Yi Xiaobo, Senior Advisor/Senior Engineer at the National Quality Supervision and Inspection Center for Power and Energy Storage Battery Products, shared insights on "The Fundamentals of Supply and Demand in the Battery Market and the Application and Development of Antimony Metal in Lead-Antimony Alloy Plates for Batteries." I. Analysis of the Lead-Acid Battery Application Market 1. Total Production 2. Proportion of Main Products ►Power Type: Electric two-wheelers, electric three-wheelers, electric four-wheelers; Top-tier enterprises: Tianneng, Chilwee, Xupai, Jingjiu, Suzhong, Huoju. ►Starting Type: Cars, agricultural vehicles, motorcycles, ships, diesel locomotives; Top-tier enterprises: Camel, Fengfan, Leoch, Jujiang, GS Yuasa. ►Standby Power Type: Electric power, telecommunications, UPS, data centers; Top-tier enterprises: Narada, Leoch, Shuangdeng, Sacred Sun, Ruida, Vision. ►Energy Storage Type: ESS power stations, industrial and commercial ESS, household ESS; Top-tier enterprises: Narada, Leoch, Shuangdeng, Sacred Sun, Huafu. 3. Market Situation In recent years, with the continuous emergence and application of various new-type batteries, the traditional lead-acid battery market has faced severe challenges. Overall Situation: Lithium batteries have rapidly occupied the high ground; sodium-ion batteries are poised for takeoff; other new-type power supplies are eagerly awaiting their turn. Automotive Market As of 2024, the domestic automobile ownership stood at approximately 353 million units, with NEVs accounting for 8.9%; globally, automobile ownership reached 1.6 billion units, with NEVs accounting for 3%. ►Market Analysis Ø The market demand growth rate for internal combustion engine vehicles will decline over the next three years. Ø Extended-range and plug-in electric vehicles have become the mainstream in NEV development. Ø Currently, 98% of internal combustion engine vehicles, except for parked heavy trucks, use lead batteries. Ø Lithium batteries dominate in NEVs, with lead batteries serving as a supplement. Ø The development of vehicle electrification and intelligent driving over the next three to five years will have a significant impact on the traditional lead-acid battery market. Ø Demand characteristics: Safety, starting capability, charging acceptance, vibration resistance, low-temperature resistance, high-temperature resistance, lifespan, and price. Ø Sodium-ion batteries are beginning to penetrate the market. Electric Two-Wheelers In 2024, the total domestic sales of electric two-wheelers reached approximately 49.5 million units, representing an 11.6% YoY decline compared to the previous year, while overseas sales totaled around 18.77 million units, showing a 24.8% YoY increase. By the end of December 2024, the ownership of electric two-wheelers in the Chinese market was approximately 400 million units. ►Market Analysis Ø Currently, lead-acid batteries hold a market share exceeding 87%, lithium batteries account for around 11%, and sodium-ion batteries make up less than 2%. Ø The trend still favors lead-acid batteries, as there is a demand for batteries with higher safety than lithium batteries, and sodium-ion batteries are emerging as a strong contender. Electric Three-Wheelers and Low-Speed Electric Four-Wheelers By the end of 2024, the market ownership of electric three-wheelers nationwide was approximately 70 million units. In 2024, the sales of low-speed electric four-wheelers in China were about 302,000 units, representing an 8.5% YoY decline. The market is expected to continue declining in 2025, with future development depending on policies and relevant standards. ►Market Analysis Ø Lead-acid batteries account for approximately 60% of the market for electric three-wheelers and low-speed electric four-wheelers, with lithium batteries gradually increasing their share to 40%, and sodium-ion batteries accounting for 0.5%. Ø For other electric vehicles, including electric forklifts, electric logistics vehicles, electric flatbed trucks, and tourist sightseeing vehicles, lithium batteries account for about 80% of the market, lead-acid batteries for about 20%, and sodium-ion batteries for 0.3%. II. Application of Antimony Metal in Lead-Acid Batteries 1. The Importance of Antimony Metal Rare Metal: Antimony has an extremely low abundance in the Earth's crust, at only two parts per ten million. It is primarily found in the sulphide mineral stibnite (Sb2S3). As of 2024, global antimony reserves reached 2.255 million mt, with China holding 670,000 mt, accounting for 29.7% and ranking first in the world. Strategic Metal: Known as the "vitamin" of industry, antimony plays an indispensable role in new energy and military industries. 2. Main Uses of Antimony Metal ►Flame Retardants: Antimony trioxide, when combined with halogenated flame retardants, becomes an irreplaceable flame-retardant material widely used in industries such as plastics, rubber, textiles, and chemical fibers. ►PV Power Generation: PV Glass: Antimony compounds and sodium pyroantimonate are used as glass refining agents to improve transparency. Monocrystalline Silicon Panels: Doping with antimony increases oxygen precipitation rates, improves crystal quality, and enhances photoelectric conversion efficiency. ►Lead-Acid Batteries: Grid alloys, parts, and additives (antimony trioxide). ►Semiconductor Materials: High-purity antimony and its compounds are used as dopants in n-type silicon wafers with ultra-high conductivity (for diodes, infrared detectors, Hall elements, etc.). ►Glass Ceramics: Porcelain: As a hardness and wear-resistance agent for glazes. Glass: As a coloring agent, strength enhancer, and heat-resistant agent. ►Strategic Military Applications: Nuclear weapons, rockets, missile shells, bullets, flares, gun barrels, night vision goggles, infrared sensors, precision optics, laser sights, etc. ► Alloy materials: Enhancers and corrosion inhibitors for bearings, gears, chemical pipelines, cable sheathing, etc. ► Chemical materials: Stabilizers and catalysts for polyester compounds and polyethylene terephthalate. 3. Production and price of antimony metal ► Limited production: In 2024, China's antimony metal production was 72,000 mt, a 10.3% YoY decrease, with a capacity utilisation rate of 33%, constrained by insufficient raw material supply. The demand in 2024 was 97,100 mt, mainly driven by the expansion of PV systems and flame-retardant materials, which increased the demand for antimony metal. ► Significant increase in antimony imports: According to customs statistics, China's imports of antimony ore and concentrate were 51,080.2 mt in 2024, a 46.0% YoY increase. ► Price increase: The intensified supply-demand imbalance drove up prices. ► Development trends: A. The state intensifies industry regulation and export controls; B. The supply of antimony resources may continue to tighten; C. The demand for downstream applications is increasingly robust; D. Technology reshapes the value chain, with application scenarios shifting towards high-end (PV, military, battery); E. The supply-demand gap for antimony will widen in 2025; F. Prices may continue to rise; G. Antimony recycling technology improves, with an increase in recycling rates. 4. Application of antimony metal in lead-acid batteries ► Application history a. In 1859, Frenchman Gaston Plante invented the lead-acid battery (two lead plates immersed in dilute sulphuric acid could generate an electric current). b. In 1881, Frenchman Camille Faure invented the pasted plate (a rechargeable lead-acid battery with lead oxide coated on the lead plates). c. In 1882, Englishman Sellon invented the lead-antimony alloy grid (with 5%-7% antimony content, enhancing plate strength, conductivity, and lifespan). d. 1950s-1970s: Lead-antimony-arsenic alloy (with 3%-5% antimony content, addressing water loss and self-discharge issues). e. 1980s-1990s: Lead-antimony-arsenic-tin alloy (with 1.5%-2% antimony content, addressing water loss, internal resistance, and self-discharge issues). f. 1990s onwards: Application of valve-regulated batteries (gradually replacing lead-antimony alloy grids); lead-antimony-arsenic-tin-copper-selenium(sulphur) alloy (with 0.5%-1% antimony content, addressing water loss, self-discharge, and corrosion issues). ► Current application status a. Lead-antimony grids: Flooded battery grids (for automotive, agricultural vehicle starting batteries, forklift traction batteries, electric three-wheeler power batteries, and motorcycle starting batteries). b. Applications of lead parts: terminal posts, terminals, busbars, and connecting strips. c. Lead-calcium grid plate: Antimony trioxide (an additive for positive active material, addressing the passivation issue of deep-cycle plates, i.e., solving the "antimony-free effect" of plates). ‌‌►Usage volume a. Antimony ingot: Approximately 10,000 mt per year; b. Antimony trioxide: Approximately 2,000 mt per year. ‌‌►Future usage trends a. The usage of antimony ingot will gradually decrease (forklift batteries and electric three-wheeler batteries are gradually being replaced by lithium-ion batteries and sodium-ion batteries). b. The usage of antimony trioxide will remain basically unchanged. 》Click to view the special report on the 2025 SMM (13th) Minor Metals Industry Conference

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) disclosed that China's automotive market continued to grow in May, with production and sales reaching 2.649 million units and 2.686 million units respectively, up 11.6% and 11.2% YoY. Monthly sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 1.307 million units, up 36.9% YoY, accounting for 48.7% of the overall market. From January to May, cumulative sales of NEVs reached 5.608 million units, up 44% YoY. In May, automobile exports reached 551,000 units, up 14.5% YoY, with cumulative exports of 2.49 million units in the first five months, up 7.9% YoY.

As 2025 approaches the mid-year mark, announcements regarding the "suspension of vehicle trade-in subsidy application processing" have been issued in multiple regions. This sudden development has sparked widespread concern among consumers who are holding onto their money, waiting to make purchases. On June 11, the Shenyang Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued the "Announcement on Adjusting Some Consumer Goods Trade-in Activities," stating that starting from 24:00 on June 30, five activities would be suspended: trade-in of home appliances, purchase subsidies for new mobile phones, tablets, and smart watches (bands), "renovation" of home decoration and kitchen/bathroom products (home and home decoration products under the responsibility of the Municipal Bureau of Commerce), trade-in of e-bikes, and vehicle trade-in and renewal. The resumption of these activities will be announced separately. On the same day that Shenyang announced the suspension of vehicle trade-in subsidies, the Department of Commerce of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region issued an announcement stating that the subsidy funds for consumer goods trade-in in the autonomous region's commerce sector for 2025 were about to be exhausted. "After deliberation, it has been decided that the autonomous region's vehicle scrappage and renewal policy will continue to be implemented. However, the subsidy policies for vehicle trade-in and renewal, trade-in of home appliances, purchase of new mobile phones, tablets, and smart watches (bands), trade-in of e-bikes, and "renovation" of home decoration and kitchen/bathroom products will be suspended starting from 24:00 on June 15." The day before, the "Announcement on Suspending the Application for Subsidy Eligibility Vouchers for Trade-in of Consumer Goods in Zhengzhou City for 2025" appeared on the website of the Zhengzhou Municipal Bureau of Commerce. The announcement mentioned that the subsidy funds for this round of home appliances in Zhengzhou had been exhausted. In accordance with the principle of "first-come, first-served, until funds are depleted," the application for subsidy eligibility vouchers for trade-in of consumer goods and home appliances for 2025 would be suspended starting from 12:00 on June 11. Consumers who had already received subsidy eligibility vouchers for home appliances on June 11 could still participate in the home appliance subsidy activities normally on that day. Subsequent activities would be launched and announced separately in a timely manner based on adjustments to relevant policies and funding arrangements in our province. On the same day, the Luoyang Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued the "Announcement on Suspending the Acceptance of Applications for Vehicle Trade-in and Renewal Subsidies in Luoyang City for 2025." "The principle of 'first-come, first-served, until funds are depleted' has already been stated in the previously issued policies. The policies will only remain effective until the end of the year if the funds are not exhausted," an office staff member from the Zhengzhou Municipal Bureau of Commerce told a reporter from Cailian Press. The subsequent development remains uncertain. If new policies are introduced by relevant departments and funds are replenished, the vehicle trade-in subsidy policy may continue to be implemented. "Actually, a similar situation occurred last year as well." Regarding the next steps, the staff member suggested consulting the business department of the Zhengzhou Municipal Bureau of Commerce. However, as of the time of reporting, the reporter was unable to reach the relevant business department by phone. According to incomplete statistics by Cailian Press reporters, as of now, nearly ten regions have suspended applications for vehicle trade-in subsidies. In addition to the aforementioned regions, these also include Chongqing, Xuchang, Huizhou, and Suzhou District of Jiuquan City. The reasons include the exhaustion of funds, system upgrades, and the upcoming opening of a new round of subsidies. The Chongqing Municipal Commission of Commerce stated on its official website in response to citizens' inquiries that it was drafting the second phase of the trade-in subsidy policy. A relevant official from the Department of Commerce of Guangdong Province responded that Guangdong would not end the trade-in policy ahead of schedule, while also noting that the temporary suspension of voucher distribution in some cities was due to system upgrades and periodic inventory checks. "Judging from the situation in multiple regions, the trade-in subsidy policy has had a significant stimulating effect on the automotive market, with consumers showing high levels of participation," an industry insider analyzed. The latest data from the Ministry of Commerce showed that as of May 31, the five major categories of consumer goods trade-ins had collectively driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan this year, with approximately 175 million subsidies distributed directly to consumers. Among these, the number of applications for automotive trade-in subsidies reached 4.12 million. "China's economy has maintained steady growth overall, with the economic operation showing new and positive trends, the domestic demand space continuously expanding, and the external demand market becoming more diversified," the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) stated on June 11. Since the beginning of this year, "the program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins has been expanded and intensified, continuing to show its effectiveness. Coupled with favorable factors such as the launch of new products by automakers and sales promotions at auto shows in multiple regions, it has helped accelerate the release of consumption vitality in the automotive market. 'In May, the automotive market continued its positive momentum, with production and sales achieving growth of over 10% compared to the same period last year, and both domestic demand and exports showing good performance,'" CAAM said.

"Cut interest rates by 100 basis points!" Trump speaks out again On the evening of June 11, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social" that the latest US CPI data showed positive results, and he called on the US Fed to cut interest rates by 1 percentage point (100 basis points). US Vice President Vance stated that the US Fed's refusal to cut interest rates was a dereliction of duty in monetary policy. Data released by the US Department of Labor showed that the full impact of Trump's across-the-board tariff hikes had not yet fully materialized, with US CPI inflation in May falling short of expectations across the board. The data indicated that the US unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for May was 2.4%, lower than the market expectation of 2.5%; the seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate for May was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2% and the previous value of 0.2%. Excluding food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 2.8% YoY, remaining at the lowest level since March 2021, with an expected value of 2.9% and a previous value of 2.8%; the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate for the US in May was 0.1%, with an expected value of 0.3% and a previous value of 0.2%. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that the continued weakness in energy and service prices offset the impact of price increases in other goods, while some key items originally expected to rise due to tariffs, particularly car and clothing prices, actually saw price decreases. The data showed that energy prices fell by 1% in the month, with gasoline prices dropping by 2.6%, and prices for new and used cars falling by 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively. Food prices rose by 0.3%, and housing prices also increased by 0.3%, while clothing prices unexpectedly fell by 0.4%, indicating that the cost increases brought about by tariffs had not yet been passed on to consumers. Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Whisperer," commented that the decline in car and clothing prices led to a lower-than-expected reading for the core CPI in May. Some forecasters had believed that these two items would show the early impact of tariffs in May. After the data release, spot gold prices continued to rise, breaking through $3,360 per ounce. The three major US stock index futures surged briefly but then fell. By the close, the S&P 500 index closed down 16.57 points, or 0.27%, at 6,022.24 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.10 points, or 0.00%, at 42,865.77 points. The Nasdaq closed down 99.11 points, or 0.50%, at 19,615.88 points. The Nasdaq 100 index closed down 81.12 points, or 0.37%, at 21,860.80 points. Trump says "confidence is waning" in reaching a nuclear deal; international oil prices surge According to AFP, both the US and Iran made their latest statements on the US-Iran nuclear negotiations on June 11. US President Trump stated in an interview aired on the same day that his "confidence has waned" in reaching a nuclear deal with Iran. Meanwhile, Iran said on June 11 that if negotiations fail and a conflict breaks out between the US and Iran, it will target US military bases in the Middle East. Upon the news, the crude oil market reacted swiftly. WTI crude oil futures for July delivery closed up $3.17/bbl, a 4.88% increase, at $68.15/bbl. Brent crude oil futures for August delivery closed up $2.90/bbl, a 4.33% increase, at $69.77/bbl. What is the outlook for the cast aluminum alloy futures market? Yesterday, the most-traded AD2511 cast aluminum alloy futures contract closed at 19,400 yuan/mt, up 0.91%. Regarding the current operational logic of the cast aluminum alloy market, Xiao Yufei, head of the Nonferrous Metals Research Team at Nanhua Futures, believes that the supply surplus in the cast aluminum alloy industry will persist. The planned new capacity for domestic aluminum alloy ingots in 2024-2025 is 1.145 million mt/year. However, due to various constraints, the actual capacity that has come online is only 260,000 mt/year. It is expected that in 2025, the cast aluminum alloy industry will continue to see capacity growth but with slower commissioning. According to Xiao Yufei, the downstream consumption of cast aluminum alloy mainly flows into sectors such as transportation, machinery manufacturing, home appliances, and hardware. Among them, transportation vehicles, including cars, motorcycles, and EVs, account for over 70% of downstream demand. Therefore, the demand for cast aluminum alloy primarily depends on the performance of the automotive market. The automotive industry has generally performed well this year, with production and sales showing steady growth compared to the same period last year. However, considering that the H2 is approaching the off-season, the growth rate of cast aluminum alloy demand may slow down. In addition, aluminum scrap inventory is tight, and raw material procurement is difficult. The inability to restock in a timely manner has led to a continuous decline in the raw material inventory of secondary aluminum alloy enterprises. "Finished product inventories are at a relatively high level. Given the current loose supply situation, we believe that the inventory buildup trend of secondary aluminum alloy will persist for some time. Considering the high correlation between aluminum alloy prices and SHFE aluminum prices, spot and futures prices are more inclined towards a backwardation structure," Xiao Yufei said. Fu Ying, a nonferrous metals analyst at the Zheshang Futures Research Center, believes that the current cast aluminum alloy market is in a phase of weak supply and demand. The automotive market, a major end-use application for cast aluminum alloy, is currently in an off-season for production. Under the "produce based on sales" model of alloy enterprises, their operating rates will also decline accordingly. Meanwhile, the trend of weakening demand will become more pronounced, with both social inventory and raw material inventory showing continuous accumulation. Therefore, the spot price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate around production costs. The first listed futures contract for cast aluminum alloy was AD2511, with a delivery month of November. According to Chen Xinyi, the head of the Non-Ferrous Metals and New Energy Team at Wuchan Zhongda Futures, the aluminum scrap recycling system is relatively "informal," which leads to a decrease in aluminum scrap recycling volume during holidays. Typically, aluminum scrap supply is relatively tight in Q4, and its prices hold up well compared to primary aluminum. From a demand perspective, ADC12 demand exhibits significant seasonal characteristics, with peak seasons generally occurring from September to January of the following year, and November being a peak consumption month. Therefore, the inter-month price spreads for the AD2511, AD2512, and AD2601 contracts are currently in a contango state. "Before the listing of cast aluminum alloy futures, spot market reference prices were mostly anchored to the Baotai price," Chen Xinyi said. Currently, the Baotai quote for ADC12 is 19,400 yuan/mt. Considering that some registered brands are priced at a discount to the Baotai price and the slim profit margins of alloy enterprises, companies have little incentive to price and sell futures contracts in advance. Currently, the downside room for aluminum scrap prices, which are closely linked to aluminum prices, is limited. This keeps ADC12 prices relatively strong in the short term, with the main operating range being 19,000-19,600 yuan/mt. In practice, according to Chen Xinyi, the ADC12-A00 price spread exhibits significant seasonal characteristics, weakening in Q2 and strengthening in Q3. Affected by policies, despite a capacity utilisation rate as high as 97%, electrolytic aluminum continues to destock, while the supply and demand of secondary aluminum show a surplus, with the current capacity utilisation rate being less than 50%. When the ADC12-A00 price spread is at historically high levels, the substitution effect of primary aluminum for aluminum scrap gradually becomes apparent. Some companies may consider adjusting their raw material ratios, and increased demand for electrolytic aluminum supports price increases, thereby driving the ADC12-A00 price spread to revert. In the short term, Fu Ying stated that cast aluminum alloy futures prices are expected to mainly follow aluminum price fluctuations, with cost support existing below. On the one hand, the most-traded cast aluminum alloy futures contract, AD2511, is still far from its delivery date, and the price trend of cast aluminum alloy is consistent with that of aluminum. The current low inventory and continuous destocking of electrolytic aluminum provide support for aluminum prices. On the other hand, the supply and demand of aluminum scrap are relatively tight, with aluminum scrap costs accounting for nearly 90% of the cost of cast aluminum alloy. The firmness of aluminum scrap prices supports ADC12 prices. However, affected by the traditional off-season, the upside room for cast aluminum alloy prices is also limited. Additionally, under the off-season consumption, the demand for selling hedging by cast aluminum alloy producers is high, which will suppress futures prices. Regarding the key points to be monitored subsequently, Fu Ying believes they mainly include changes in aluminum scrap supply, downstream demand, and the changes and impacts of spot pricing models after the listing of futures. Aluminum scrap supply determines the cost trend of cast aluminum alloy, while downstream demand affects the price spread fluctuations between cast aluminum alloy and primary aluminum. Stronger demand will drive the price spread between the two to revert. Currently, the spot price of cast aluminum alloy mainly refers to the quotes on information websites and the "enterprise quotes + premiums and discounts" model, lacking a relatively open and transparent market mechanism. After the listing of cast aluminum alloy futures, the number of market participants will gradually increase, which will help optimize the spot pricing model.