Against the backdrop of aluminum price premiums being given back and heightened expectations of decline, end-users' willingness to restock will remain suppressed. Industry profit margins are expected to stay low, and competition among enterprises will evolve deeply from "scale expansion" to "cost control and structural optimization."

Japan's Ministry of Finance enacted a Cabinet Order imposing a provisional anti-dumping duty on nickel-added cold-rolled stainless steel coil, sheet and strip originating from mainland China and Taiwan, effective July 9 through November 8, 2026. The duty rates range from 3.6% to 42.1% depending on the exporting company, with Taiwan's Yieh United Steel securing a comparatively low rate of 3.86% following the preliminary determination. The action follows an investigation launched in July 2025 after Japan's domestic industry alleged material injury from dumped imports. The measure is one of several anti-dumping and safeguard actions taken by importing countries against flat steel products in 2026 as global overcapacity concerns persist. Final duty determination is expected after the provisional period concludes.

Tightening supply policy in Indonesia, new import quotas and carbon costs in the EU, and tariff walls in the US pushed benchmark stainless steel prices higher across nearly every major market in the first half of 2026 — even as real demand stayed weak everywhere, turning global trade increasingly into a fight over market access rather than supply and demand.

Taiwan's cold-rolled steel buyers remain active in securing Chinese material as the anti-dumping petition filed by CSC over three months ago still awaits formal investigation. In a parallel case, on February 10, the Ministry of Economic Affairs preliminarily found that imports of non-oriented electrical steel from China and South Korea have caused material injury to the domestic industry, and the case will be forwarded to the Ministry of Finance for dumping investigation. Market participants noted that the prolonged delay in the cold-rolled probe has encouraged importers to stock up on lower-priced Chinese material, with June imports reaching about 40,000 tonnes. Despite Chinese mills raising offers to defend margins amid falling domestic prices, discounts remain available for large orders, sustaining an arbitrage opportunity versus local Taiwanese prices.

Overseas PV Markets Enter a Policy-Driven Reset After H1 Demand Pull-Forward. Export tax changes, freight volatility, raw material costs, and policy deadlines lifted China TOPCon FOB prices in Q1 before weaker demand pulled them back to $0.108-0.112/W by late June.

★ Macro ★ 01 ★★ [Central Bank Net Withdraws 85 Billion Yuan via Open Market Operations] The central bank today conducted a 15 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation, with a bid amount of 15 billion yuan and a winning amount of 15 billion yuan, at an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous level. As 100 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos expired today, a net withdrawal of 85 billion yuan was achieved. 02 ★★★ [A Member of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Killed Repelling Drone Attack] According to Iranian local time on the 8th, the Navy of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that earlier that day, a naval member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was killed in the process of responding to an incoming drone in the Mahshahr region of southwestern Iran. On the 8th, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that the U.S. military launched airstrikes in the early morning on coastal areas of Iran's Hormozgan Province and some coastal bases and non-military facilities in Mahshahr, violating the ceasefire agreement and breaching the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. ★ Industry and Downstream ★ 01 ★★ [CPCA: June Retail Sales of China's Passenger Car Market at 1.602 Million Units] CPCA data showed that retail sales of China's passenger car market in June were 1.602 million units, down 23.2% YoY but up 6.1% MoM. Year-to-date retail sales reached 8.701 million units, down 20.2% YoY. In June, retail sales of internal combustion engine vehicles fell 39% YoY, with pure gasoline cars down 42% and conventional hybrids down 7%. Among combustion engine vehicles, domestic brands fell 39%, mainstream joint ventures fell 39%, and luxury brands fell 39%, all indiscriminately hit by the sharp impact of high oil prices. June retail sales of new energy vehicles fell 9% YoY, with domestic brands down 11%, mainstream joint ventures up 45%, and luxury brands down 11%. The retail sales of domestic economy EVs were significantly impacted by the sharp decline in subsidies. 02 ★★ [H1 Excavator Sales Up Over 26% YoY] Data from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association showed that in June, total excavator sales reached 25,400 units, up 35.3% YoY. Of this total, domestic sales came to 10,900 units, up 33.9% YoY, while exports stood at 14,500 units, up 36.4% YoY. Based on H1 data, since March, excavator sales have exceeded 20,000 units for four consecutive months, with March sales reaching 37,400 units, the highest monthly sales since May 2021. Cumulative sales in the first half reached 152,300 units, up 26.4% YoY. China domestic sales reached 79,000 units, up 20.4% YoY, while exports totaled 73,300 units, up 33.5% YoY. The loader market also sustained its high growth trajectory, with the industry recovery gaining broad-based momentum. Data shows that loader sales across all types reached 15,000 units in June this year, up 24.9% YoY. Cumulative sales of all loader types hit 82,100 units in H1 this year, up 26.7% YoY. 03 ★★ [ Yuxi Xianfu Coke Project Expected to Begin Trial Production in November ] Yunnan Yuxi Xianfu Steel (Group) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter "Xianfu Steel") is currently accelerating construction of its supporting 1-million mt/year coking project, targeting trial production this November. Overall project completion now stands at roughly 80%, with cumulative investment reaching 1.5 billion yuan. 04 ★★ [Shandong Province Coal Mine Capacity Status] In accordance with the requirements of the National Energy Administration's Notice on Establishing a Coal Mine Capacity Registration and Public Announcement System (GN Coal [2013] No. 476) and Notice on Improving the Coal Mine Capacity Registration and Public Announcement System to Carry Out Public Announcements for Coal Mines Under Construction (GN Coal [2017] No. 17), the production and construction coal mine capacity status across the province is hereby announced as follows: As of June 30, 2026, Shandong Province has 76 legally operating or under-construction coal mines, with a total annual capacity of 113.57 million mt. Among these, there is 1 coal mine under construction with a construction scale of 450,000 mt/year, and 75 operating coal mines with a registered production capacity of 113.12 million mt/year. 05 ★★ [ CPCA: China Passenger Car Market Retail Sales Down 23.2% YoY, Up 6.1% MoM in June ] Data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) shows that nationwide passenger car retail sales reached 1.602 million units in June, down 23.2% YoY and up 6.1% MoM. Year-to-date cumulative retail sales hit 8.701 million units, down 20.2% YoY. Passenger NEV retail sales reached 1.007 million units in June, down 9.4% YoY but up 6.0% MoM. For January-June, passenger NEV retail sales totaled 4.704 million units, down 14.0% YoY. Retail sales of conventional internal combustion engine passenger cars reached 600,000 units in June, down 39% YoY but up 6.3% MoM. Notably, sales of standard hybrid models fell only 7% YoY while surging 24% MoM, a standout performance. ★ Other Hot Topics ★ ⭕ [China Energy Group's Coal Port Departures and Arrivals Both Hit Record Highs in H1] As of June 30, the port segment of China Energy Group has completed cumulative coal arrivals of 148.009 million mt and coal port departures of 147.1 million mt. The group's coal port arrivals and departures both reached new all-time highs for the same period in H1, effectively ensuring smooth and efficient operation of the critical energy transportation channel. Since the beginning of this year, the port subsidiary of China Energy Group has optimized production organization, unlocked port capacity, coordinated resource allocation across three ports, innovated operation models and loading/unloading processes, increased the direct loading ratio and circulation efficiency, and simultaneously expanded market coal transshipment business, driving a steady rise in throughput. In the area of equipment support, it has fully implemented a production equipment full life cycle management system, adopted refined maintenance standards and grid-based accountability mechanisms, built a real-time condition monitoring platform for key equipment, and achieved equipment fault prediction and early warning. This has driven a comprehensive transformation and upgrade of the operation and maintenance model from "reactive repair" to "proactive defense," solidifying the hardware foundation for continuous and stable production. [Turkey Initiates Sunset Review of Anti-Dumping Duties on Vietnamese Stainless Steel Pipes] On July 3, 2026, the Turkish Ministry of Trade issued Communiqué No. 2026/27, announcing the initiation of the first sunset review of anti-dumping duties on stainless steel pipes and other hollow structural profiles originating in Viet Nam, following an application by a domestic producer. The products in question are classified under Turkish Customs Tariff numbers 7306.40.20.90.00, 7306.40.80.90.00, and 7306.61.10.00.00. During the investigation, the current anti-dumping duties will remain in effect. The communiqué takes effect on the date of its publication. *This report is an original work and/or compilation work of SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), which legally holds the copyright and is protected by the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, among other laws and regulations, and applicable international treaties. Without written permission, no part of the above content may be reproduced, modified, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or disclosed to a third party in any form, nor may any third party be licensed to use it. 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