[Worsening Supply Concerns and Gradual Demand Recovery Stabilize the Center of Aluminum Prices with Geopolitical Premiums ]Overall, the market's core focus in the period ahead is on whether key aluminum smelters in the Middle East will further expand production cuts. If the cuts continue to materialize, they will provide strong upward momentum for global aluminum prices, coupled with support from expectations of a gradual release of demand during China’s peak season. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Slightly Pessimistic Demand Expectations Cap Upside Room for ADC12 Prices]: On Thursday, ADC12 market prices remained largely stable. Downstream procurement is currently staying cautious, and overall market transactions were mediocre. Some enterprises are pessimistic about April order expectations, with wait-and-see sentiment intensifying and demand continuing to provide weak support for prices. The market’s primary contradiction has shifted from raw material cost-driven factors to insufficient consumption momentum. The increase in finished alloy ingot prices has clearly lagged behind the raw material side, and industry profit margins have consequently narrowed.

[[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]]Secondary Aluminum Market Consolidated at High Levels, Intensifying the Tug-of-War Between Cost Support and Weak Demand

[China’s Aluminum Ingot Inventory Continues to Build Up, Aluminum Prices Remain in a High-Level Consolidation Pattern ]Overall, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remained the core factor affecting the global aluminum market. A series of production cuts and damage incidents at Middle Eastern aluminum plants is expected to provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices in and outside China, coupled with support from expectations of a gradual release of peak-season demand in China. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Rebounded After Bottoming Out in the Night Session, Up 0.91%; ADC12 to Continue Moving Sideways in a Narrow Range in the Short Term] Overnight, the most-traded 2605 aluminum alloy contract opened at 23,680 yuan/mt, then quickly fell to around 23,623 yuan/mt, hitting an intraday low of 23,525 yuan/mt in the night session before stopping its decline and rebounding. During the session, bulls gradually pushed prices higher, sending them up to 23,780 yuan/mt, a fresh high for the night session, before pulling back slightly and moving sideways. It finally closed at 23,730 yuan/mt, up 215 yuan/mt from the previous close, or 0.91%.

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] Futures side, before midday the most-traded aluminum alloy 2605 contract retreated after a rapid rise and then fluctuated downward. After opening, the price rose rapidly to an intraday high of 23,985 yuan/mt, then pulled back under pressure, with the session low falling to 23,535 yuan/mt. As of the midday close, it stood at 23,630 yuan/mt, down 115 yuan from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.48%. Spot side, ADC12 market prices were mainly stable today. As fluctuations in aluminum prices and aluminum scrap prices narrowed, cost support tended to stabilize, and enterprises generally lacked the motivation to adjust prices. Meanwhile, downstream demand showed no obvious improvement, with procurement still mainly driven by rigid demand, and market transa