According to SMM, as of February 27, 2026, the days of inventories for domestic aluminum rod plants were recorded at 12.7 days, an increase of 8.6 days from before the holiday.In the first week after the holiday, the weekly operating rate of the domestic aluminum wire and cable industry rebounded to 57%, up 4 percentage points MoM, significantly higher than the pre-holiday low of 53%.

According to SMM's latest monthly data survey, the total production of aluminum rods nationwide in May 2025 was 417,000 mt, an increase of 10,500 mt from April. After adjusting for the number of days in the month, the operating rate of aluminum rod plants in May was recorded at 62.15%, down 1.01% MoM and up 5.95% YoY. In the first half of May, due to the in the doldrums of aluminum prices and sufficient profit margins from orders on hand in the downstream sector, the market's purchasing efforts did not significantly weaken. Coupled with the industry still being in a concentrated shipping cycle, the supply side was able to maintain fluctuations at highs. However, in the second half of May, LME aluminum prices held up well due to the scarcity of aluminum ingots circulating in the market, while there was a noticeable weakening trend in industry deliveries. Consequently, market conditions took a sharp turn for the worse, and processing fees pulled back rapidly.

[SMM Analysis: The Center of Processing Fees Has Risen Since April, While the Supply Side of Aluminum Billets Remains Stable] Calm seas! Since April, the domestic supply of primary aluminum billets has remained stable. Despite the tariff war initiated by the US since early April, which once caused a "storm" in the domestic aluminum market, with the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract briefly touching the 19,000 yuan level. However, as a blessing in disguise, the aluminum prices, which were significantly dragged down by the macro front, allowed the aluminum billet processing fees to rise sharply. In May, as aluminum prices slowly recovered above the 20,000 yuan level, although the processing fees came under some pressure, due to...

[SMM Analysis: The Center of Processing Fees Has Risen Since April, While the Supply Side of Aluminum Billets Remains Stable] Calm before the storm! Since April, the domestic supply of primary aluminum billets has remained stable. Despite the tariff war initiated by the US since early April, which once caused a "panic" in the domestic aluminum market, with the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract briefly touching the 19,000 yuan level. However, as a silver lining, the aluminum prices, which were significantly dragged down by the macro front, allowed the processing fees of aluminum billets to rise sharply. In May, as aluminum prices slowly recovered to above 20,000 yuan, although the processing fees came under some pressure, due to...

SMM May 19 News: Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. recently released its Q1 2025 performance report. According to the announcement, the company achieved a total revenue of 14.411 billion yuan in Q1, up 26.89% YoY. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 974 million yuan, down 16.26% YoY. Regarding the reasons for the company's revenue growth, Yunnan Aluminum stated that it was mainly due to the increase in sales volume and selling prices of aluminum commodities during the reporting period. Meanwhile, the operating costs increased by 33.38% YoY due to the rise in raw material prices and sales volume of aluminum commodities during the reporting period. From the perspective of futures prices, the main SHFE aluminum contract generally fluctuated upward in Q1. As of the close on March 31, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract closed at 20,480 yuan/mt, with a quarterly increase of 3.49%. In terms of spot prices, according to SMM spot quotes, the SMMA00 aluminum spot quotes also generally showed an upward trend in Q1. As of March 31, the average spot price of SMMA00 aluminum was reported at 20,560 yuan/mt, up 790 yuan/mt from 19,770 yuan/mt at the end of 2024, representing an increase of approximately 4%. 》Click to view SMM aluminum product spot quotes In late January, coinciding with the Chinese New Year holiday, the unexpected destocking of aluminum ingot inventory in the first two weeks drove aluminum prices to continue to climb, reaching a high of 20,550 yuan/mt during the session on January 20, a new high since December 2024. However, as downstream enterprises took holidays near the end of the year, weakening consumption exerted downward pressure on aluminum prices, which fluctuated downward under pressure. Nevertheless, aluminum prices generally showed an upward trend in January. In February, coinciding with the Chinese New Year holiday, aluminum ingot inventory buildup was slightly higher than the same period in history. However, as downstream enterprises gradually resumed production after the holiday, aluminum prices maintained highs in February despite being in the off-season. By March, the aluminum market entered the traditional peak consumption season, with downstream demand gradually recovering. Coupled with the installation rush stimulated by the new PV policies in the past 1-2 months, aluminum consumption increased, and social inventory showed a destocking trend. Meanwhile, downstream demand also continued to rebound, driving aluminum prices to hold up well in early March. However, in late March, due to poor macro sentiment overseas, funds exited for risk aversion, leading to a decline in the futures market. Nevertheless, from a quarterly perspective, aluminum prices still performed well in Q1. Turning to the current aluminum prices, according to SMM, the recent aluminum market has received support from improved macro environments both domestically and overseas, but bullish and bearish factors are intertwined. On the supply side, domestic aluminum capacity is approaching the ceiling, and the insufficient recovery of hydropower in Yunnan has exacerbated regional supply tightness, limiting the increase in aluminum ingot output. On the cost side, a sudden notice of production suspension was issued for mining areas in Guinea where mining licenses were revoked late last Friday, sparking market concerns about the supply of bauxite raw materials, which may push up alumina costs. However, the specific impact remains to be evaluated. The demand side is under dual pressures from domestic seasonal weakness and trade uncertainties, making significant growth in the short term unlikely. Inventories of aluminum ingots have fallen to a low level compared to the same period last year, and tight spot liquidity is supporting aluminum prices. Overall, favorable macro conditions provide a floor for aluminum prices, and low inventories further strengthen price resilience. However, off-season pressure on the demand side limits upside room. In the short term, attention should be paid to the performance of domestic and overseas demand, as well as the supply situation of bauxite. As of May 19, the spot quote for SMM A00 aluminum remained at 20,220-20,240 yuan/mt, with an average price of 20,230 yuan/mt. Yunnan Aluminum has also been striving to improve the self-sufficiency rate of bauxite. Previously, the company stated that it is enhancing the self-sufficiency rate through the following methods: First, based on current exploration results, bauxite in Yunnan Province is mainly concentrated in areas such as Wenshan and Zhaotong, and the company will increase its efforts in bauxite development in Yunnan Province. Second, focusing on countries in Southeast Asia such as Laos, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Cambodia, the company will accelerate the acquisition of exploration rights for bauxite resources in surrounding areas and resource exploration. Third, the company will expedite the processing of existing exploration-to-mining permits, ensure resource continuity, and safeguard the amount of ore available for mining. Public information shows that during the reporting period, Yunnan Aluminum was mainly engaged in the mining of bauxite, production and sales of alumina, green aluminum, aluminum processing, and carbon materials for aluminum production. Its main products include alumina, prebaked anodes for aluminum production, graphitised cathodes, aluminum ingots for remelting, refined aluminum ingots for remelting, round and flat casting ingots of wrought aluminum and aluminum alloys, cast aluminum alloy ingots, round aluminum rods for electrical purposes, aluminum and aluminum alloy welding materials, etc. Meanwhile, the company actively expands its circular economy businesses, including comprehensive utilization of secondary aluminum, solid waste resources from aluminum production, and aluminum ash. It is worth mentioning that according to the company's 2024 performance report, the company achieved a total revenue of 54.45 billion yuan in 2024, up 27.61% YoY, hitting a record high since its listing. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 4.412 billion yuan, up 11.52% YoY. The company mentioned in its annual report data that it currently has a production capacity of 1.4 million mt of alumina, 3.05 million mt of green aluminum, 1.6 million mt of aluminum alloys and aluminum processing products, and 820,000 mt of carbon products. Throughout 2024, the company actively sought to increase its electricity load, seized opportunities, and achieved rapid production resumptions in aluminum production. It promoted standardized production to enhance operational quality, achieving full coverage of standardized processes across the production lines of aluminum, alumina, and carbon products. The company achieved increased production and efficiency for its main products, producing 1.4088 million mt of alumina, 2.9383 million mt of primary aluminum, up 22.45% YoY, 805,800 mt of carbon products, up 2.85% YoY, and 1.2541 million mt of aluminum alloys and aluminum processing products, up 1.75% YoY. Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. was also asked about the impact of new technologies on the future of the aluminum industry. In response, Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. stated that in recent years, the aluminum smelting technology has developed rapidly, with significant breakthroughs in carbon-free anodes, inert anodes, high-end alloy rail transit, high-purity aluminum, 3C electronics, circular economy, and other areas. The impact on the future of the aluminum industry is mainly reflected in energy conservation and carbon reduction, energy efficiency improvement, cost reduction, industrial upgrading promotion, and green development facilitation. When mentioning the highlights of the company's future performance improvement, Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. indicated that in the future, the company will continue to leverage its comprehensive competitive advantages in the green and low-carbon entire industry chain, continuously optimize the value chain of the green aluminum industry, and further enhance the brand influence and market value of "Green Aluminum • At Yunnan Aluminum". It will strive to build a "benchmark for first-class green aluminum enterprises", reward investors with sound operating performance, and gradually increase the dividend payout ratio as the company's operating performance improves.

In May, China's domestic aluminum ingot inventory successfully surpassed the 600,000 mt mark, demonstrating strong resilience in domestic aluminum consumption during the critical transition phase between the off-season and peak season, providing crucial support for the recent consecutive upward trend in aluminum prices. According to SMM statistics, as of May 15, the inventory of aluminum ingots at major domestic consumption hubs stood at 581,000 mt, a decrease of 20,000 mt from Monday this week, down 39,000 mt WoW from Thursday last week, and 166,000 mt YoY, remaining at a low level compared to the same period in the past three years. However, it is noteworthy that aluminum prices have rebounded and risen consecutively in mid-May, with aluminum prices breaking through the 20,000 yuan per mt threshold, which has somewhat suppressed downstream restocking demand. There have been noticeable signs of a decline in domestic outflows from warehouses over the past week, potentially gradually returning to off-season levels. SMM forecasts that...