SMM May 29 News: According to SMM statistics, China's aluminum production in May 2026 (31 days) was up 2.1% YoY and up 3.8% MoM. Although the pace of China's end-use demand recovery remained slow, the widening aluminum supply gap outside China significantly boosted domestic aluminum semis export demand, which in turn provided effective support for liquid aluminum consumption in China, driving apparent consumption to maintain positive growth. The proportion of liquid aluminum in China edged up, with the monthly proportion up 1.1 percentage points MoM to 76.5%, slightly above expectations at the beginning of the month, with the core incremental growth coming from export orders strengthening beyond expectations. Based on SMM's proportion of liquid aluminum calculation data, China's aluminum casting ingot volume in May declined 1.2% YoY and fell 0.9% MoM. Capacity changes: As of month-end May, SMM statistics showed China's existing aluminum capacity at approximately 46.209 million mt, with no MoM change. Production forecast: Entering June 2026, overall, as demand in markets outside China recovers, China's aluminum semis export orders are expected to continue improving, supporting a slight rebound in the proportion of liquid aluminum. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise 0.1 percentage points to 76.6%. [Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM

This week, overseas aluminum scrap and secondary aluminum markets continued to fluctuate at relatively high levels. Affected by Middle East tensions, tight shipping logistics and fluctuations in LME aluminum prices, overall market sentiment remained cautious. The industry generally continued to show a market pattern characterized by “strong cost support and downstream demand mainly driven by rigid procurement needs.” Aluminum scrap market In the aluminum scrap market, Malaysia’s mixed aluminum casting scrap Tense prices remained stable at USD 2,600/mt this week after rising last week, with overall market quotations relatively steady. Malaysia’s aluminum cable scrap Talon prices edged up slightly from MYR 14,250/mt (~USD 3,593/mt) to MYR 14,300/mt (~USD 3,605/mt). Meanwhile, baled used beverage can (UBC) prices saw a noticeable correction, falling by MYR 850 from MYR 10,500/mt (~USD 2,647/mt) to MYR 9,650/mt (~USD 2,433/mt). SMM indicates this price adjustment was mainly due to some companies restructuring their quotation systems and pricing mechanisms, rather than a significant weakening in end-user demand. In Thailand, Talon prices increased from THB 117,500/mt (~USD 3,601/mt) last week to THB 122,500/mt (~USD 3,755/mt), while baled UBC prices remained relatively stable around THB 85,500/mt (~USD 2,621/mt), indicating relatively limited overall market fluctuations. SMM analysis indicates that the overseas aluminum scrap market continues to be supported by tight supply conditions. Ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz continue to affect global aluminum scrap circulation, with shipping delays and rerouting still occurring in some regions, keeping freight and import costs elevated. Some market participants reported that European-origin scrap has been more heavily affected by shipping disruptions, leading buyers to gradually shift procurement preference toward U.S.-origin scrap with relatively more stable logistics, further supporting imported aluminum scrap prices. At the same time, local supply of high-quality aluminum scrap in Southeast Asia remains tight. Some downstream factories in Malaysia continue to increase their reliance on imported aluminum scrap, further reflecting that regional supply-side pressure has not eased significantly. SMM estimates that the domestic and overseas aluminum scrap price spread in China remains around RMB 2,500–3,000/mt, leaving arbitrage opportunities for certain products and providing continued support for aluminum scrap trading activity in Southeast Asia. On the demand side, overseas ADC12 producers and secondary aluminum enterprises are still mainly purchasing based on rigid demand. Although aluminum scrap prices remain at relatively high levels, downstream buyers have become more cautious compared with earlier periods, and transaction speeds for high-priced materials have slowed somewhat. Overall, the market continues to be dominated by procurement on a need-only basis. Secondary aluminum ADC12 market In the ADC12 market, Malaysia’s domestic ADC12 secondary aluminum alloy prices remained stable this week at MYR 13.30/kg (~USD 3,353/mt), while FOB prices held steady at USD 3,395/mt, with overall market trends remaining relatively stable. In Thailand, domestic ADC12 prices rose alongside higher LME aluminum prices, increasing from THB 110/kg (~USD 3,372/mt) last week to THB 112/kg (~USD 3,433/mt), while FOB prices remained largely stable around USD 3,370/mt throughout the week. SMM analysis shows that some ADC12 producers already have orders scheduled through July and August. While order-taking remains cautious, operations are generally stable. As a result, producers currently prefer maintaining stable quotations rather than continuing to aggressively raise prices. Some manufacturers are also retaining a certain level of spot inventory to cope with potential raw material supply fluctuations and unexpected order demand. In addition, some customers have recently begun delaying shipment schedules and slowing cargo pickups, mainly due to limited acceptance of high prices among end-users and continued market uncertainty regarding future price trends. In the Indian market, although Indian buyers are offering relatively higher prices, some companies still remain cautious toward concluding transactions. Overall, SMM expects overseas aluminum scrap and ADC12 markets to continue fluctuating at relatively high but stable levels in the short term. Future market direction will still depend on developments in the Middle East situation, shipping recovery conditions, LME aluminum price movements, and actual downstream order-taking and cargo pickup activity. Exchange Rate Reference: 1 USD = 3.96 MYR 1 USD = 32.62 THB

[Geopolitical Disruptions Combined with Elevated Inventory Highlight LME Outperforming SHFE in Aluminum Market] Overall, the core pattern of LME outperforming SHFE in the aluminum market is difficult to reverse in the short term. LME strength will support room for SHFE aluminum to catch up after the holiday, but high domestic inventory and weak demand will cap overall gains. Going forward, the focus will be on the pace of aluminum ingot destocking in China and the strength of rigid demand release from downstream resumption of work and production resumptions.

[Geopolitical Tensions Boost LME, China Inventory Buildup and Weakening Demand Under Pressure] In the short term, the core pattern of LME outperforming SHFE in the aluminum market is difficult to reverse. The strength in LME will support room for SHFE aluminum to catch up after the holiday, but high inventory and weak demand in China will suppress overall gains. Going forward, the focus should be on the pace of aluminum ingot destocking in China and the strength of rigid demand release from downstream resumption of work and production resumptions.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Domestic and International Aluminum Prices Weakened in Tandem, Weak Macro Sentiment Dragged Down Pre-Holiday Market]

SMM April 30 News: According to SMM statistics, China's aluminum production in April 2026 (30 days) was up 1.7% YoY and down 2.9% MoM. As the traditional peak consumption season continued, downstream sectors such as plate/sheet, strip and foil, and aluminum wire and cable provided effective demand support. The proportion of liquid aluminum in China edged up, rising 1.7 percentage points MoM to 75.3%. Overall performance was slightly below early-month expectations, with the core drag coming from weaker-than-expected aluminum extrusion orders. Based on SMM's proportion of liquid aluminum calculation data, China's aluminum casting ingot volume in April declined 3.4% YoY and 9.0% MoM. Capacity changes: As of month-end April, SMM statistics showed China's existing aluminum capacity at approximately 46.209 million mt, with no MoM change. Production forecast: Entering May 2026, the proportion of liquid aluminum production among China's aluminum enterprises is expected to diverge. Overall, as demand in markets outside China recovers, export orders for China's aluminum semis are expected to continue improving, supporting a slight rebound in the proportion of liquid aluminum. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise 0.5 percentage points to 75.8%. [Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM