According to SMM statistics, on July 2, aluminum billet inventory in China's mainstream consumption areas dropped to 130,000 mt, down 4,000 mt from last Monday and 10,000 mt from last Thursday, with the destocking pace accelerating markedly. Compared with the same period, it was 23,500 mt lower than in 2025 and 9,700 mt lower than in 2024, pushing total inventory to the lowest level for the same period in the past three years. In terms of warehouse withdrawals,

SMM, July 3: In the morning session, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract traded at a higher center than the same period of the previous trading day. Buying sentiment picked up somewhat, boosted by Friday stockpiling, but remained at a weak level. Market liquidity was relatively ample, with mainstream transactions at parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract. In east China today, the shipment sentiment index stood at 2.91, flat MoM, while the procurement sentiment index came in at 2.79, up 0.06 MoM. Following the sharp drop on the futures market, aluminum prices rebounded for two consecutive days, yet bearish sentiment in the central China market remained strong. With the weekend stockpiling cycle approaching, downstream processing enterprises still mainly made just-in-time procurement, with only small-scale raw material stockpiling, leaving the overall market trading atmosphere largely sluggish. Suppliers also showed limited willingness to hold prices firm. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were centered around a discount of 50-70 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract. In the central China market today, the shipment sentiment index was 2.89, up 0.01 MoM, while the procurement sentiment index stood at 2.12, up 0.01 MoM. On the inventory front, aluminum ingot inventories in major consumption areas fell by 1.95 MoM today, with all three regions showing destocking.

Today ADC12 market quotes continued to rise overall, with the SMM ADC12 price up by 200 yuan/mt from the previous day to 24,000 yuan/mt. As spot aluminum prices and aluminum alloy futures rebounded consecutively, cost support strengthened further. Enterprises' enthusiasm for raising prices in tandem increased noticeably, and market sentiment recovered somewhat from the earlier period. On the demand side, downstream orders had yet to show significant improvement, and the overall operation remained stable. Some enterprises reported that order intake since July had changed little, with the market still dominated by just-in-time procurement.

[ADC12 Price Daily Review: Futures and Spot Prices Strengthen in Tandem, but Demand Concerns Linger; Weakening Prices Outside China Drive Continued Recovery of the Domestic-Overseas Spread] Today, quoted prices in the ADC12 market generally extended their upward trend. The SMM ADC12 price rose 200 yuan/mt from the previous day to 24,000 yuan/mt.

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]Primary-Scrap Spread Narrows Sharply as ADC12-A00 Premium Hits a Record High: Has the Window Opened for Primary Aluminum to Replace Scrap?

SMM July 3: The daytime session continued to surge today, and spot southern China showed resilience. The consecutive rise in absolute prices spurred some speculative cargo to accelerate outflows for monetization, causing downward disruptions, but with high futures and a stagnant spot-futures price spread, hedging parties largely held prices firm, unwilling to join the rush to sell. Mainstream quotations were at a premium of -10 to +10 yuan/mt, with a certain gap, and overall circulation pressure remained controllable. Demand side, aluminum prices remaining relatively low supported stable just-in-time procurement by downstream players, and traders gradually entered the market to purchase at non-premium levels, with moderate absorption capacity, but both showed little willingness to chase the rally or add positions, lacking elasticity. The supply-demand pattern was lukewarm, and overall transactions were stable and predictable. Spot transactions concentrated at a premium of -20 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2607 contract.