SMM August 11: In early trading, the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract continued to run at high levels, with prices above 24,000 yuan/mt somewhat curbing downstream purchases, while transactions among traders were relatively active. Today, the main trading center of spot premiums for SHFE aluminum was between 40 yuan/mt against the August contract and 20 yuan/mt against the August-October contract. In east China, the shipment sentiment index was 3.16, up 0.01 from the previous day; the purchase sentiment index was 3.20, up 0.04 from the previous day. Aluminum futures prices continued to rise, and trading atmosphere in central China remained sluggish today. Downstream processing enterprises' buying sentiment was sluggish, with overall market trading volume remaining low. Small traders tended to dump products in large volumes at high aluminum prices, while large traders' sentiment to hold prices firm remained notable. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in central China centered around a discount of 120-140 yuan/mt against the SHFE August contract. In central China, the shipment sentiment index was 3.06, up 0.02 from the previous day; the purchase sentiment index was 2.95, down 0.01 from the previous day. Inventory side, today's aluminum ingot inventory in mainstream consumption areas fell by 4,500 mt WoW, with Guangdong and Wuxi showing destocking.

SMM August 11 News: Today, SHFE aluminum 2609 contract opened at 24,180 yuan/mt, reached a high of 24,260 yuan/mt, a low of 24,095 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 24,250 yuan/mt, up 215 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a rise of 0.89%. Trading volume was 131,200 lots, open interest 239,400 lots, with a daily position change of -1,415 lots. The price has firmly stood above MA5 (24,010), MA10 (23,821), MA30 (23,314.17), and MA60 (23,720.75). The moving average system shows a bullish alignment, and the uptrend continues. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (188.92) and DEA (76.79) are both above the zero line and continue to diverge upward, with the histogram expanding to 224.25, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. Trading volume of 131,200 lots was below MA5 (134,100 lots), a volume-shrinking rise suggesting limited willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise. SMM Comment: Differences remain on the Middle East situation. Although the US Fed did not raise rates in July, its overall stance remains hawkish. The fundamental deficit persists, and aluminum ingot inventory continues to destock. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note. Today, alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,727 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,743 yuan/mt, a low of 2,711 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 2,724 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a rise of 0.93%. Trading volume was 156,100 lots, open interest 324,900 lots, with a daily position change of -28,277 lots. The price has firmly stood above MA5 (2,696.2), MA10 (2,670.7), and MA30 (2,696.4), but remains below MA60 (2,764.7). Short-term moving averages are in bullish alignment, while medium and long-term moving averages still exert resistance. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (29.51) and DEA (17.39) have both turned positive and are diverging upward, with the histogram expanding to 24.24, indicating gradually strengthening bullish momentum. Trading volume of 156,100 lots was below MA5 (203,100 lots), a volume-shrinking rise suggesting declining market participation. The daily position change of -28,277 lots, a significant reduction, indicates clear bearish liquidation. SMM Comment: This week, spot alumina prices continued to drift lower, maintaining a downward trend. Supply side, production this week rebounded slightly WoW, mainly as enterprises that had undergone maintenance resumed production, gradually restoring output to normal levels, with overall supply increasing. Demand side saw no significant change, with downstream procurement pace remaining stable, failing to provide effective growth support. Ex-China, the issue of Indonesia's alumina export restrictions has been resolved. Alumina resources previously suspended due to containing rare earth elements have now been approved for re-export, which will supplement the Chinese market going forward. Looking ahead to next week, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined: On one hand, an alumina refinery in south China plans maintenance, which will tighten regional supply and provide some support to prices; on the other hand, new vessels will continue to arrive at ports, providing ongoing supply replenishment. Under these two forces, overall inventory is expected to remain at current levels, with the pace of inventory buildup slowing down. Overall, driven by sentiment fluctuations on the futures market and the positive impact of short-term maintenance, the decline in alumina prices is expected to temporarily halt, and prices will consolidate within the current range in the near term. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients have nothing to do with SMM.]

SMM, August 11: The SMM A00 spot aluminum price closed at 24,100 yuan/mt today, up 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In China's scrap aluminum market, tense scrap prices held steady with a wait-and-see stance, while bare bright aluminum wire and aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint rose in tandem. Regarding the price difference, on August 11, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was about 2,360 yuan/mt, and the price difference between A00 aluminum and shredded aluminum tense scrap was about 1,260 yuan/mt. As primary aluminum prices continued to climb, scrap aluminum showed insufficient upward momentum, and the price difference widened again. Demand for secondary aluminum alloys and their downstream sectors weakened marginally. Coupled with high inventories of wrought aluminum raw materials like doors and windows in Henan and other regions, the price transmission mechanism for scrap aluminum was hindered, leaving upward momentum clearly weak. Affected by the traditional consumption off-season, operating rates at downstream cast aluminum alloy enterprises kept declining, order volumes shrank, and the scrap aluminum market lacked substantive support. Looking ahead, the supply-demand mismatch pattern is unlikely to reverse in the short term. Scrap utilization enterprises will likely maintain strategies of purchasing as needed and low-inventory operations, with market trading atmosphere seeing little substantial improvement. This week, shredded aluminum tense scrap priced based on aluminum content is expected to be dragged down by stagnant raw material prices and weak downstream demand, operating under overall pressure, with the prevailing trading range anticipated to center around 20,200-20,800 yuan/mt.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Ma’aden’s aluminum business delivered its best quarterly financial performance since inception in Q2 2026, with revenue rising 49% year on year to US$1.01 billion and EBITDA more than doubling to US$411 million, representing a 41% margin. The improvement was mainly driven by higher pricing, with average realized aluminum prices increasing 51% to US$3,915/tonne, despite production edging lower to 242,000 tonnes. Ma’aden expects aluminum market fundamentals to remain supportive, citing an estimated global market deficit of around 1.7 million tonnes for the remainder of 2026. The company noted that aluminum prices began moderating toward the end of Q2 but expects the supply deficit to continue supporting near-term pricing, while maintaining a favorable medium- to long-term outlook.

[SMM Aluminum Alloy ADC12 Daily Review] ADC12 market offers consolidated on a strong note today. The SMM average price edged up 50 yuan/mt, with some enterprises following suit and raising prices by 100 yuan/mt, supported by high raw material costs and strong aluminum prices. However, end-use demand remained in the high-temperature off-season, and downstream purchases were mainly just-in-time procurement, limiting improvement in transactions, while some enterprises stood still for now. In the short term, ADC12 will continue to consolidate amid cost support and demand constraints, with the extent of any rise still dependent on a substantial recovery in end-use consumption.

[ADC12 Price Daily Review: Outside China ADC12 Prices Strengthened, Import Losses Deepened Further] The ADC12 market offers consolidated on a strong note today. The SMM average price was raised slightly by 50 yuan/mt. Some enterprises, supported by high raw material costs and strong aluminum prices, followed suit to increase their prices by 100 yuan/mt. However, end-use demand remained in the high-temperature off-season, and downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement. Transactions improved only limitedly, and some enterprises held prices stable for the time being and took a wait-and-see approach.