[SMM Aluminum Flash] Upstream raw materials for aluminum fluoride are showing divergent trends. Fluorite prices are firm and strengthening, further solidifying the cost floor, while aluminum hydroxide and sulphuric acid prices have pulled back slightly, only offsetting some of the cost pressure. Overall production costs in the industry remain high. Producers’ profitability is hard to restore, and their willingness to start production remains sluggish. Supported by the rigid cost floor, the industry’s low supply, and the boost to industry chain sentiment from a sharp raise in August hydrofluoric acid long-term contract prices, aluminum fluoride market prices are expected to hold up well overall in August.

Backed by rigid cost-side support, the industry's low supply pattern, and coupled with the significant boost to industry chain sentiment from the sharp hike in August hydrofluoric acid long-term contract prices, the aluminum fluoride market price is expected to hold up well overall in August.

[SMM Aluminum Flash] This week, raw material prices for aluminum fluoride diverged. The 97% fluorite wet powder market consolidated on a strong note, with mainstream delivered prices at 3,200-3,650 yuan/mt. The aluminum hydroxide market drifted lower, with a weighted average price of 1,680 yuan/mt, edging down 0.41% MoM. The sulphuric acid market eased from high levels, with the transaction center shifting lower steadily. After the offsetting moves in raw materials, the overall production cost of aluminum fluoride remained high.

SMM July 30: This week, aluminum fluoride enterprises mainly delivered orders. As month-end approached, the market awaited new pricing guidance, and trading was sluggish with stable prices. As of now, SMM mainstream aluminum fluoride quotations were 10,950-11,400 yuan/mt; cryolite saw rigid demand recover marginally in China and overseas, and combined with raw material cost support, spot prices edged up, with SMM cryolite quotations at 7,500-9,000 yuan/mt. Raw material side: This week, aluminum fluoride raw material prices diverged. The upstream 97% fluorite wet powder market consolidated on a strong note, with mainstream delivered prices at 3,200-3,650 yuan/mt. Supply side, China’s mining safety supervision intensified, mining standardization controls were implemented, and mine technological transformation cycles were extended, constraining the release of effective industry capacity over the long term. During the week, downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises saw new order prices for August shift higher, driving factories to restock on rigid demand. Aluminum enterprises’ stable consumption provided a floor, and supply-demand fundamentals provided strong support, keeping fluorite prices on a stable upward trend. Other raw materials side, China’s aluminum hydroxide market drifted lower, with a weighted average price of 1,680 yuan/mt, down 0.41% WoW; the sulphuric acid market softened from highs, with the transaction center shifting lower steadily. After offsetting raw material gains and losses, aluminum fluoride’s overall production costs remained high. Supply side, the industry continued to be trapped in a negative cycle of high costs, losses on production, and low operating rates. Rising fluorite prices further exacerbated enterprises’ losses, and the scope of industry losses continued to expand. Most enterprises increased equipment maintenance and flexible production cuts, causing the overall operating rate to continue declining. Currently, enterprises in the market mostly adopted a contractionary operating strategy, prioritizing the delivery of long-term contract orders. Market effective supply growth was constrained, and spot supply was tight overall. Demand side, the downstream aluminum industry’s operating capacity stayed high, providing rigid demand support for aluminum fluoride and propping up the market bottom. However, aluminum smelters’ overall procurement attitude was cautious and conservative, mainly limited to sporadic restocking for rigid demand. A strong push for lower prices and wait-and-see sentiment prevailed, with no concentrated restocking or incremental procurement, making it difficult to drive market prices up. Brief Review: This week, aluminum fluoride raw material trends continued to diverge. Fluorite strongly raised the cost floor, while aluminum hydroxide and sulphuric acid pulled back slightly, offsetting part of the pressure. Overall industry costs stayed high, making it hard to restore profitability, and production enthusiasm remained weak. Currently, rigid cost-side support combined with low industry operating rates has clearly heated up overall bullish expectations. Going forward, focus on tracking the cost fluctuation trends of raw materials like fluorite and the marginal changes in procurement pace at downstream aluminum enterprises.

SMM July 23 News: This week, trading sentiment in China's aluminum fluoride market weakened, and prices held steady overall. As of now, SMM's mainstream quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10,950-11,400 yuan/mt; the cryolite market also stayed stable, with SMM's cryolite quotation at 7,000-9,000 yuan/mt, showing no significant fluctuations. Raw material side: This week, aluminum fluoride raw material prices diverged, while comprehensive production costs stayed high. The upstream 97% fluorite wet powder market consolidated on a strong note, with mainstream delivered prices of 3,150-3,500 yuan/mt and persistent regional price spreads. Supply side, domestic mine safety supervision tightened, standardized controls on underground mining operations were implemented, and technological transformation and rectification cycles extended, chronically constraining effective capacity release. Combined with port freight restrictions during Mongolia's Naadam festival, imported fluorite ore supply saw periodic reductions, widening the domestic raw material supply gap and providing strong support for fluorite prices. Meanwhile, downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises' procurement enthusiasm recovered slightly, with restocking for rigid demand increasing. Supply-demand dual positives reinforced fluorite's upward trend. For supporting raw materials, the domestic aluminum hydroxide market drifted lower, with a weighted average price of 1,687 yuan/mt, down 0.18% MoM; the sulphuric acid market high-end prices loosened, and the transaction center moved lower steadily. After offsetting the mixed raw material changes, aluminum fluoride's comprehensive production cost remained elevated. Supply side: The industry remained stuck in a negative cycle of high costs, production losses, and low operating rates. Rising fluorite prices further worsened enterprises' losses on production, with losses across the industry continuing to widen. Most enterprises stepped up equipment maintenance and flexible production cuts, and the overall operating rate kept falling. Currently, enterprises mostly adopted strategies to contract operations, prioritizing delivery of long-term contract orders, with no new production schedules planned. Effective supply growth in the market was limited, and spot cargo was tight overall. Demand side: Downstream aluminum industry's operating capacity stayed high, providing rigid demand support for aluminum fluoride and underpinning market bottom prices. However, aluminum enterprises' overall procurement sentiment remained cautious and conservative, mainly restocking in small quantities for rigid demand. Strong sentiment to push for lower prices and wait-and-see prevailed, with no concentrated restocking or additional procurement, which was insufficient to drive market prices higher. Brief review: This week, aluminum fluoride raw material trends diverged. Fluorite strengthened and lifted the cost floor, while aluminum hydroxide and sulphuric acid pulled back slightly, offsetting some pressure. Industry overall cost remained elevated, enterprise profit margins were hard to recover, and production motivation stayed weak. Currently, tug-of-war between upstream and downstream was intense, lacking drivers for one-sided price moves, and market transactions were mainly sporadic rigid demand orders. Short-term aluminum fluoride and cryolite prices are expected to continue the stalemate with stable quotes. Subsequent focus will be on tracking trends in raw material cost fluctuations such as fluorite, as well as marginal changes in downstream aluminum enterprises' procurement pace.

SMM, July 16: This week, transaction sentiment in China's aluminum fluoride market softened somewhat, while aluminum fluoride prices remained stable. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 10,950-11,400 yuan/mt; cryolite prices held steady, with SMM quoting 7,000-9,000 yuan/mt. Raw material side: China's 97% fluorite wet powder market consolidated on a strong note this week, with mainstream delivered prices at 3,100-3,450 yuan/mt, while regional price spreads persisted. Supply side, affected by safety incidents, nationwide mine safety inspections intensified markedly, and most mines in core production areas like Zhejiang and Fujian have entered shutdown self-inspection and rectification stages, dragging down the industry's overall operating rate and tightening spot cargo availability. Although production resumptions at some northern mines and increased imports from Mongolia provided partial supplement, supply remained tight overall amid widespread sentiment of holding back from selling and holding prices firm among ore sellers. Demand side, still in the traditional off-season, fluorine chemical enterprises kept operating rates reduced, hydrofluoric acid operating rates stayed low, and downstream demand in refrigerants and fluoropolymers was sluggish, with procurement mostly need-based, capping price upside. As the support from tightening spot supply gradually emerged, market sentiment improved, and transaction prices edged up. However, with no fundamental improvement in off-season demand, the sustainability and upside room of this rebound still face pressure. China's aluminum hydroxide market drifted lower this week, with SMM weighted average price at 1,690 yuan/mt, edging down 0.41% WoW. The sulphuric acid market consolidated at highs. Overall, raw material price trends diverged, and comprehensive production costs for aluminum fluoride remained high. Supply side, trapped in a negative cycle of high costs, deep losses, and low operating rates, rising raw material prices exacerbated cost-side losses, widening the loss margin, prompting more maintenance shutdowns and flexible production adjustments, further reducing overall operating rates. Some enterprises adopted a contraction strategy, prioritizing long-term contract deliveries with virtually no new production schedules, limiting effective supply growth. Demand side, downstream operating aluminum capacity stayed high, providing a rigid demand floor for aluminum fluoride, but aluminum smelters remained cautious in procurement, mainly restocking on a need-to basis and pushing for lower prices, with no incremental purchase demand released. Commentary: This week, upstream raw materials for aluminum fluoride diverged—fluorite edged up, aluminum hydroxide weakened, and sulphuric acid consolidated at highs. Industry-wide production costs stayed high, making it difficult for producers to restore profitability, and production stockpiling sentiment was weak. Currently, the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream is intense, with no clear directional driver, and transactions mostly involve sporadic need-based restocking. Short-term aluminum fluoride prices are expected to hold in a stalemate, with limited room for movement. Close attention should be paid to raw material cost dynamics and marginal adjustments in downstream aluminum enterprises' procurement pace.