[SMM Aluminum Express News] Magnitude 7 Metals will restart potline one at its New Madrid, Missouri aluminium smelter, bringing an additional 75,000 tpy of primary aluminium capacity online by the end of 2026. The American Primary Aluminum Association (APAA) welcomed the decision, noting that the restart, together with Century Aluminum’s Mt. Holly restart, could increase US domestic primary aluminium production by more than 20% while creating hundreds of manufacturing jobs and strengthening supply chain resilience.

Quebec aluminum smelters are continuing to operate at around 95% capacity with no reported layoffs despite higher US import tariffs. According to the Aluminum Association of Canada, the Trump administration’s decision to raise aluminum and steel tariffs from 25% to 50% initially resulted in losses of approximately USD600 million for Quebec producers after US customers resisted absorbing the additional costs. However, market conditions have since stabilized as aluminum originally destined for Europe was redirected to the US market to benefit from higher prices. Industry participants noted that global aluminum prices continue to rise, with further upside risks linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran crisis.

As resource security and decarbonization become increasingly important, major economies are strengthening efforts to retain aluminum scrap. From the EU's review of export controls and the U.S. strategic asset proposal to Japan's circular economy initiatives and policies in the UAE and South Africa, these developments could reshape global scrap flows and affect secondary aluminum markets.

Aluminum associations from the United States, Europe, Canada and Japan highlighted OECD data showing that global aluminum-sector subsidies totaled USD118.3 billion during 2005-2024, with China accounting for USD101.4 billion, or 86% of the total. In 2024 alone, China received USD10.2 billion of the sector’s USD11.1 billion global subsidies. Industry groups noted that China’s share of global primary aluminum output has risen from 11% to 61% over the past two decades, with subsidy-supported growth extending into downstream processing and recycling. The associations called for coordinated measures, including import monitoring systems, tariff alignment and potential scrap export restrictions, to strengthen supply-chain security and support fair competition.

Overall, macro perspective, the positive and mild signals from the US-China leaders' call have temporarily eased market tensions regarding trade friction expectations, improving risk appetite. The steady progress in the Eurozone's economic recovery has partially offset the pressure from the US's temporary economic weakness, presenting a generally neutral-to-positive global macro environment that offers a relatively stable external backdrop for commodity markets.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: The Most-Traded Contract Fluctuated with a Slight Decline Overnight, ADC12 Spot Premiums Widened] Yesterday, aluminum prices partially recovered from the previous day, with the SMM ADC12 price rising slightly by 50 yuan/mt to 21,100 yuan/mt. The current tight supply of aluminum scrap is unlikely to ease in the short term, providing solid cost support. Some enterprises have experienced a decline in operating rates due to raw material shortages or losses, while finished product inventories at plants remain low, leading to firm or actively rising quotations. Although demand has not shown significant improvement compared to September, it remains resilient overall, providing support for prices. However, high social inventory and warrant pressure may limit upside room, and attention should be paid to the impact of policy implementation on the supply side. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well, with a focus on raw material circulation, demand performance, and inventory changes.