SMM News, March 23: Aluminum ingot: On March 23, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was reported at 23,410, down 650, at a discount of 175 against the current-month contract, narrowing by 5 (unit: yuan/mt). After plunging in the night session, the SHFE aluminum 04 contract rebounded slightly. Affected by aluminum prices remaining in the doldrums, the South China spot market stayed barely firm, while buyers' overall purchasing sentiment today was overall satisfactory. Current prices were significantly below the monthly average price, and sellers generally held prices firm, but with inventory buildup over the weekend and ample circulating supply, overall price support was clearly constrained by shipment pressure. Today, mainstream transaction prices in the market were mainly concentrated at premiums of -180 yuan/mt to -170 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract.

SMM News, March 24: Today, in Guangdong, spot prices for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were reported at a premium of 70 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; a discount of 30 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday; and a discount of 90 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 94,030 yuan/mt, up 1,045 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 93,920 yuan/mt, up 1,055 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory declined for six consecutive days, mainly due to limited arrivals and higher shipments. Although inventory continued to fall, downstream users showed weak restocking interest as copper prices surged sharply. Suppliers had to keep lowering spot premiums to conclude deals. Overall, trading activity in the market was noticeably weaker today than yesterday. Today, the purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.48, down 0.15 from the previous trading day, and the shipment sentiment was 3.31, down 0.11 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, after the sharp rebound in copper prices, downstream buying sentiment weakened, and spot premiums moved lower.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,816/mt. After dipping to $11,798/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,395/mt, then hovered at highs, and finally closed at $12,221/mt, up 3.27%. Trading volume reached 52,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots, down 944 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,010 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center moved higher to a high of 95,900 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs. Near the close, it dipped to 94,530 yuan/mt and finally closed at 93,840 yuan/mt, up 2.12%. Trading volume reached 120,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 6,741 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions throughout the day.

Silver prices fluctuated and stabilized today, and the spot-futures price spread between TD and the most-traded SHFE silver contract widened slightly. Suppliers' premium quotations rose slightly from yesterday. In the Shanghai market, during early trading, mainstream quotations from suppliers of national-standard silver ingots were at premiums of 100-120 yuan/kg against TD, or at a premium of 50 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2604 contract. A few suppliers were reluctant to sell small volumes at premiums of 120-150 yuan/kg against TD. After negotiations, mainstream transaction prices for mt-level volumes in the market were close to premiums of 70-100 yuan/kg against TD, or near parity against the 2604 contract. Downstream enterprises actively negotiated and bought the dip, and consumption improved slightly compared with yesterday.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Copper prices rose from yesterday, but both buying and selling sentiment pulled back intraday, indicating that downstream acceptance of current price levels remained limited. In terms of market structure, under the current price spread between futures contracts structure, suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, with some offloading cargo, driving overall spot discounts down rapidly, while downstream willingness to make counteroffers was relatively evident. Entering the second trading session, after premiums were cut further, market transactions improved somewhat, but downstream procurement remained generally cautious, mainly focused on restocking on dips, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between suppliers actively selling and downstream buyers purchasing cautiously, Shanghai spot copper discounts were expected to remain under pressure tomorrow.

SMM News, March 23: In the morning session, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated upward, while the price center fell sharply from the previous trading day. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, overall buying sentiment increased today, prompting sellers to hold prices firm. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at SHFE aluminum 04 contract +10 yuan/mt to +20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.72, down 0.58 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.3, up 0.07 MoM. Today, aluminum prices extended their decline, and premiums in central China remained in positive territory. Traders’ willingness to purchase and stockpile was somewhat lower than in the previous two days. Although downstream processing enterprises showed some willingness to buy the dip, they still did not make large-scale concentrated purchases, and overall market purchase sentiment weakened somewhat. In the end, actual quotes and transaction prices in the central China market declined all the way, from a 50 yuan premium over the central China price before the opening to near parity with the central China price, while suppliers showed no obvious willingness to hold prices firm. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.63, up 0.01 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.48, down 0.03 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 8,000 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Wuxi and Guangdong. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued its post-Chinese New Year seasonal buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.