SMM July 31 – In terms of imports and exports, according to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, from January to June 2026, China's cumulative alumina imports reached 2.277 million tonnes, up a substantial 749.1% year-on-year; cumulative exports stood at 1.609 million tonnes, up 19.8% year-on-year; resulting in a net import of 668,000 tonnes, with the net import pattern continuing to widen. By import origin, Australia remained the largest supplier, with cumulative imports of 1.643 million tonnes in H1, accounting for 72.14% of total imports—compared to just 495,000 tonnes for the full year of 2025. Imports from Indonesia reached 398,000 tonnes, accounting for 17.5%, already exceeding the full-year 2025 volume of 310,000 tonnes. Overall import volumes continue to climb. In terms of port inventories, as of July 30, alumina stocks at major Chinese ports stood at approximately 940,000 tonnes, indicating that overseas alumina continues to exert pressure on the domestic market. So far, at least six cargoes of imported alumina are known to be arriving in August, with imports of around 210,000 tonnes already confirmed, and more shipments are expected to follow. On the export side, China exported 1.022 million tonnes of alumina to Russia in H1, accounting for 63.5% of total exports, keeping Russia as China's largest alumina export destination. Meanwhile, exports to Oman, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia reached 294,000 tonnes, 159,000 tonnes, and 34,000 tonnes, respectively, collectively accounting for 30.3% of total exports. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain unresolved. Although some production capacity has resumed, key shipping lanes remain blocked, forcing cargoes to be rerouted via overland transport. As a result, some overseas alumina needs to be shipped to China for rebagging into sacks before being re-exported to the Middle East, which explains why export volumes to these three countries have not declined thus far. Overall, although overseas alumina prices have risen recently, both import and export volumes are expected to remain elevated, and the net import pattern is likely to continue in July. On the overseas market front, the global alumina market remained in surplus in July. As of July 31, the lowest spot transaction price overseas was $325/mt FOB Western Australia, equivalent to approximately RMB 2,868.8/tonne at major domestic ports including VAT.

SMM, July 31: Import and export side, According to data from China's General Administration of Customs, from January to June 2026, China's cumulative alumina imports were 2.277 million mt, up 749.1% YoY; cumulative exports were 1.609 million mt, up 19.8% YoY; and cumulative net imports were 668,000 mt, with the net import pattern continuing to expand. On the import source side, Australia remained the top supplier, with cumulative imports of 1.643 million mt in H1, accounting for 72.14% of total imports, compared to just 495,000 mt imported from Australia in full-year 2025. Imports from Indonesia were 398,000 mt, representing 17.5%, also exceeding the total import volume of 310,000 mt for all of last year. Overall import volumes continued to climb. In terms of port inventory, as of July 30, alumina inventory at major Chinese ports stood at about 940,000 mt, and the impact of overseas alumina on the Chinese market persisted. As of now, at least six vessels of imported alumina are known to have arrived in August, with import volumes of about 210,000 mt, and additional cargoes are expected to arrive gradually. On the export side, from January to June, China's alumina exports to Russia were 1.022 million mt, accounting for 63.5% of total exports, with Russia remaining China's top export destination for alumina. Meanwhile, exports to Oman, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia were 294,000 mt, 159,000 mt, and 34,000 mt respectively, totaling 30.3% of exports. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East remains unsettled; although some capacity has resumed production, key strait passages are blocked, forcing cargoes to be transported overland. This has caused some overseas alumina to be shipped to China for repackaging into bags before being sent to the Middle East, so exports to these three countries have not yet declined. Overall, although overseas alumina prices have risen recently, China's import and export volumes are expected to remain high, and the net import pattern is likely to continue in July. Overseas market side, In July, the overseas alumina fundamentals maintained a surplus. As of July 31, the lowest spot transaction price was $325/mt (FOB Western Australia), equivalent to an EXW selling price of about yuan 2,868.8/mt at major Chinese ports. (The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team, and the information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not rely solely on this information as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.) Data source: SMM

SMM July 31 – In July 2026, China's metallurgical-grade alumina output rose 2.18% month-on-month, but declined 2.48% year-on-year. As of the end of July, the country's total built capacity stood at approximately 118.42 million tonnes/year, while overall operating capacity fell 1.18% month-on-month and 2.48% year-on-year. The month-on-month decline in operating capacity was primarily driven by the combined impact of multiple regional factors, leading to diverging utilization rates among producers: In southern China, some Guangxi-based smelters gradually resumed operations in July after earlier boiler-related shutdowns, with capacity recovering to around 3 million tonnes/year by the end of the month, providing some support to regional output. However, another Guangxi alumina refinery proactively reduced production due to technical issues, partially offsetting the recovery momentum. In Guizhou, tight domestic bauxite supply prompted smelters to adjust production schedules flexibly, while routine maintenance work further curtailed output. Nevertheless, one Guizhou smelter that had previously suspended operations is steadily ramping up production, contributing to a modest increase in the province's total output. In northern China, a Shanxi-based smelter remained offline throughout July due to red mud disposal issues, becoming a key drag on regional production. Meanwhile, multiple northern smelters faced tightening bauxite supply, which further constrained operating rates and weighed on overall output in the region. Looking ahead to August, China's metallurgical-grade alumina output is expected to recover. In Guangxi, maintenance work and boiler issues are likely to be largely resolved, allowing production to return to normal levels. The red mud disposal problem in Shanxi is also expected to be addressed by mid-August, enabling the restart of affected capacity. In addition, domestic bauxite supply is anticipated to improve modestly, providing feedstock support for output growth. Although some regions have planned maintenance schedules, the overall volume of restarts is expected to outweigh maintenance-related reductions. Preliminary estimates suggest that China's metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity will stabilize at around 89.20 million tonnes/year in August.

SMM July 31: In July 2026, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production edged up 2.18% MoM but fell 2.48% YoY. As of end-July, China's existing capacity stood at around 118.42 million mt/year, and overall operating capacity fell 1.18% MoM, with a YoY decline of 2.48%. The month's operating capacity decline was mainly due to multiple regional factors, with operating rates diverging among enterprises: In south China, after previous boiler failures forced production suspensions, some lines in Guangxi gradually resumed operations in July, with operating capacity recovering to around 3 million mt/year by month-end, providing some support to regional production. However, another alumina refinery in Guangxi proactively cut production due to technical issues, capping the recovery pace in the region. In Guizhou, tighter domestic bauxite ore supply led enterprises to flexibly adjust production plans, coupled with routine maintenance, resulting in a slight production decline; however, one enterprise in the region steadily ramped up production after earlier stoppages, lifting Guizhou's production slightly. In north China, an enterprise in Shanxi failed to resume production this month due to problems at its red mud pond, becoming the main drag on regional output. Meanwhile, many areas in the north faced tighter bauxite ore supply, further curbing operating rates and causing an overall production decline in the region. Looking ahead to August, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production is expected to recover somewhat. On one hand, maintenance and boiler issues in Guangxi are likely to be largely resolved, allowing production to return to normal levels; the red mud pond issue in Shanxi is expected to be dealt with by mid-August, enabling the restart of related capacity; additionally, domestic bauxite ore supply may also improve modestly, providing raw material support for production growth. Although maintenance shutdowns are still expected in some regions, the overall production additions from restarts are anticipated to exceed the losses from maintenance. The operating capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina in China is projected to remain at around 89.2 million mt/year in August. (The above information is based on market data and comprehensive assessments by the SMM research team and is provided for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not rely solely on this information in place of independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are at their own risk and unrelated to SMM.) Source: SMM

SMM July 31: Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2609 contract closed at 23,630 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan on the day, a gain of 0.19%. Trading volume was 139,967 lots, and open interest was 247,263 lots, down 3,338 lots day on day, with funds exiting and clear signs of both bulls and bears reducing positions to realize profits. The price held above the 5-day, 10-day, and 30-day moving averages but remained below the 60-day MA, with short-term bearish pressure continuing to ease. After a sharp decline earlier, the price consolidated at lows for repair, and on the day it shot up then pulled back to close slightly higher, with moderate bullish buying at lows. The 5-day and 10-day MAs turned upward, while the 30-day and 60-day MAs remained downward, leaving the medium-term downtrend unchanged. The 60-day MA above forms strong medium- and long-term resistance, limiting upside room, while the short-term MAs below provide solid support at lows. The DIF and DEA lines stayed below the zero axis, but bearish momentum shrank significantly, and the rebound momentum from lows continued, greatly easing overall downward pressure. SMM Commentary: Recently, the macro front improved somewhat, and the marginal constraints from rate hike expectations on the nonferrous metals sector continued to ease. China’s proportion of liquid aluminum kept rising, and the geopolitical risk premium from the Middle East along with continued destocking of domestic aluminum ingot provided a floor for aluminum prices, significantly boosting short-term market confidence. However, the continued rollout of aluminum capacity outside China in the long term, weak end-use demand in China, together with repeated changes in expectations for US Fed rate hikes and uncertainties in the Middle East, still put some pressure on aluminum’s upside room. Short-term aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note. Today, the most-traded alumina 2609 contract settled at 2,621 yuan/mt, down 27 yuan on the day, a decline of 1.02%. Trading volume was 185,860 lots, and open interest was 242,811 lots, down 6,081 lots MoM, with funds reducing positions and exiting. The price stayed below the 5-day, 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day MAs, with all MAs forming bearish pressure from top to bottom. Short-term bears continued to press, and the price hit a new low, with weak bullish buying at lows. All medium- and long-term MAs have turned from support to resistance, and the medium-term consolidation downward trend hasn’t changed. During any rebound repair phase, the price will face layered resistance from each moving average. SMM Commentary: On the supply side, weekly production was basically flat compared to the previous week, with stable operations, but the ample supply situation persisted, continuing to weigh on prices. On the inventory front, the buildup trend continued. In markets outside China, affected by geopolitical conflicts, large volumes of low-priced cargo flowed into China earlier, consuming overseas circulating inventory. Recently, the concentrated release of restocking demand from new capacity in Indonesia and production resumptions in the Middle East tightened overseas supplies from loose, driving a notable increase in ex-China alumina prices. Looking ahead, in the absence of macro bullish catalysts in China, the oversupply situation continues to pressure, and short-term prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Additionally, expectations of production ramp-up in Guangxi will likely lead to further inventory buildup next week. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research or decision-making. Clients should make decisions prudently and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

SMM, July 31 news: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.72%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.23%. SHFE lead fell 0.99%. SHFE zinc rose 0.87%. SHFE tin rose 1.89%. SHFE nickel rose 0.49%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.15%, while the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.76%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract extended the decline from the previous trading day, falling another 3.44%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.12%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.88%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.76%, rebar fell 0.5%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.86%. Stainless steel rose 0.41%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 3.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.93%. For base metals in the overseas market, as of 11:38, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper and LME aluminum edged up, with gains within 0.1%. LME lead fell 0.29%, LME zinc rose 0.35%. LME tin rose 0.1%. LME nickel fell 0.23%. For precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 0.68%, COMEX silver fell 0.74%. For domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.47%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.97%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 1.11%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 1.73%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract fell 0.23% to 1,722 points. As of 11:38 on July 31, some futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 120 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 105,790 yuan/mt, up 335 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,690 yuan/mt, up 330 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory fell for three consecutive days, mainly due to reduced arrivals... Macro front Domestic: [NDRC: Recently working with relevant departments to expeditiously formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand, 2026-2030] Zhou Hongwei, deputy director of the Department of National Economy under the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said at a press conference that recently, the NDRC is working with relevant departments to expeditiously formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand (2026-2030). Going forward, the NDRC will work with relevant departments to more forcefully and effectively expand domestic demand. [NBS: July manufacturing PMI at 49.2%, business sentiment pulled back somewhat; high-tech manufacturing continued to expand] Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, down 1.1 percentage points MoM, with business sentiment pulling back somewhat. In July, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.0%, down 1.2 percentage points MoM, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing business sentiment from the previous month. In July, the composite PMI output index was 49.3%, down 1.3 percentage points MoM, suggesting that China's enterprise production and business activities slowed down MoM. Huo Lihui, chief statistician of the NBS Service Survey Center, said that in July, the manufacturing PMI pulled back, while high-tech manufacturing continued to expand. Due to a high base from the rapid growth of the manufacturing sector earlier and the onset of the traditional production off-season for some manufacturing industries, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2%. Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing continued to play a supporting and leading role. The PMIs for equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing were 51.4% and 53.3%, respectively, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, maintaining relatively fast expansion and driving the manufacturing sector towards new and better development; the PMIs for consumer goods and high energy-consuming sectors were 47.8% and 47.0%, down 2.4 and 0.1 percentage points MoM, respectively, reflecting a pullback in business sentiment. [PBOC net injected 45 billion yuan via reverse repos today, open market operations net injected 421.5 billion yuan this week] The PBOC today conducted 134 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos. With 89 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos maturing today, a net injection of 45 billion yuan was achieved. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 1,242 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and conducted 600 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos each day from the 29th to the 31st. With a total of 1,020.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 400 billion yuan of 1-year MLF maturing this week, a net injection of 421.5 billion yuan was realized. (Jin10 data app) US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 100.22. Data released by the US government on Thursday showed that the US June PCE price index fell 0.1% MoM, the first monthly decline since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, further explaining why the Fed chose to keep rates unchanged this week. The annual PCE inflation rate slowed to 3.7% from the three-year high of 4.1% in May. However, it remains unclear whether inflation will continue to retreat. The cooling of inflation in June was mainly due to lower oil prices after the fragile temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran. The core PCE price index rose 0.1% MoM in June, below market expectations, and the YoY growth rate fell to 3.3% from 3.4%. The Fed considers the PCE price index, especially the core PCE, to be the most accurate indicator of US inflation trends. Currently, it shows that US inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for the sixth consecutive year. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September is 36.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 63.4%. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in October is 26.9%, that of a cumulative 25-bps hike is 56.3%, and that of a cumulative 50-bps hike is 16.9%. Citigroup economists Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark said that Fed Chairman Warsh hinted that other inflation indicators beyond the PCE price index will play a larger role in monetary policy, reducing the likelihood of a near-term Fed rate hike. The core PCE inflation rate in June fell to 3.3% from 3.4%. By comparison, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 2.6%, closer to the Fed's 2% target. Hollenhorst and Clark said: "In the coming months, the market should see more clearly that the broader inflation measures Warsh is focusing on do not show worrisome signs of accelerating inflation." The market currently expects a 59% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. However, the two economists believe this expectation may be wrong. (Jin10 data app) Other currencies: [BOJ voted 8-1 to keep rates unchanged, will hike rates as conditions warrant] The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its policy rate at 1% on Friday, as expected, after having raised the benchmark rate to the highest since 1995 last month. BOJ board member Hajime Takata dissented, calling for a 25-bps hike, arguing that the situation has entered a new phase and the BOJ needs to adopt a flexible approach to deal with upside price risks and changes in overseas financial conditions. The BOJ said it will continue to raise rates in accordance with economic, price developments and financial conditions, that underlying inflation is approaching 2%, financial conditions remain accommodative, and significant downside risks to economic activity and upside risks to prices have both diminished. In its latest economic outlook, the BOJ lowered its core CPI forecast for fiscal 2026 to 2.5% from 2.8%, and raised its GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2026 to 0.6% from 0.5%. (Jin10 data) Data: Today will see the release of US Q2 Employment Cost Index quarterly rate, US July Chicago PMI, US July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading, US July one-year inflation expectations final reading, US July one-year inflation expectations final reading, UK July Nationwide House Price Index monthly rate, Switzerland June real retail sales annual rate, France July CPI monthly rate preliminary, Germany July seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Canada May GDP monthly rate, Eurozone July CPI annual rate preliminary, Eurozone July CPI monthly rate preliminary, Japan June unemployment rate, and Japan's central bank target rate through July 31, among other data. Additionally, attention should be paid to: China will open a new round of price adjustment window for refined oil products. Amazon and Apple reported earnings after the US stock market close on July 30, Japanese NAND flash memory manufacturer Kioxia reported earnings, the Bank of Japan released its interest rate decision and economic outlook report, and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo held a monetary policy press conference. In crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices in both markets declined, with US crude down 1.58% and Brent crude down 1.24%. The market saw a mix of bullish and bearish factors: mutual airstrikes between the US and Iran posed geopolitical risks, while recently rebounded shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz eased some supply concerns. Traders remained cautious overall, with limited willingness to make big directional bets. (Wall Street Insights) The previously slowed crude oil transshipment services in the Strait of Hormuz have recently become active again, helping move millions of barrels of crude oil out of the strait. As hostilities in the Middle East escalate, this mode of transportation once again plays a critical role. This transshipment model emerged during the most intense period of conflict, becoming a vital lifeline for some oil-producing countries to maintain exports. Relevant vessels transport crude oil from the Persian Gulf—typically turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders to avoid detection—and then conduct ship-to-ship (STS) transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz, after which the receiving tanker delivers the crude oil to buyers around the world. Although crude oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz remains below pre-war levels, the crude that has been successfully shipped has played an important role in alleviating market concerns about oil price surges. Two people with direct knowledge of the matter said that for at least two shipping enterprises involved in Strait of Hormuz transport, transshipment volumes are now near levels seen before the escalation of hostilities. (Jin10 Data APP) According to Reuters, citing shipping data firm Kpler, 25 commercial cargo vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Thursday, while shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz remains at low levels, with only two oil tankers passing through. Out of the 25 vessels transiting through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, 18 entered the waterway while 7 departed. These included 2 VLCCs, 1 Suezmax tanker, and 5 Aframax tankers. Meanwhile, both vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz were sailing empty. (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►