[SMM Flash News] SHFE data showed that as of March 24, the total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warrants was 42,944 mt, a decrease of 2,047 mt from the previous trading day. By region, the total registered volume was Shanghai (2,755 mt, down 422 mt), Guangdong (17,257 mt, down 210 mt), Jiangsu (4,209 mt, down 813 mt), Zhejiang (13,672 mt, down 483 mt), Chongqing (3,723 mt, down 119 mt), and Sichuan (1,327 mt, increase 0 mt).

[SMM Daily Review of Aluminum Alloy] Futures: The aluminum alloy 2604 contract opened at 22,750 yuan/mt today. After a brief dip in early trading, it then fluctuated upward. It attempted to move higher multiple times during the session but failed to break the intraday high, gradually weakened in the afternoon, and accelerated its pullback late in the session. It finally closed at 22,585 yuan/mt, down 165 yuan/mt from the previous settlement price, a decline of 0.73%. Spot: The ADC12 market as a whole continued to hold prices steady today. Although aluminum prices showed signs of stabilizing today, market sentiment recovered only to a limited extent, and enterprises generally chose to delay price adjustments and remain on the sidelines. Demand side, downstream order improvement was not obvi

China First Heavy Industries has successfully completed the trial rolling of the domestically designed and manufactured 3500mm copper and copper alloy wide and thick plate cold and hot rolling mill, the first of its kind in China, for Chinalco Luoyang Copper Processing Co., Ltd., achieving the goal one month ahead of schedule. This marks a major breakthrough for China in the field of high-end copper and copper alloy wide and thick plate rolling equipment.

Jan-Feb 2026 China magnesium exports reached 72.7kt, up 3.4kt YoY. Magnesium alloy led with +33.1% YoY, orders booked through April. Magnesium ingot fell 6.8% due to weak European demand, while powder grew 10.3%. However, US-Israel conflict disrupted Middle East aluminum plants, halting regional magnesium orders and pressuring Q2 outlook despite the strong start.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Extended Losses, While Trading Sentiment Recovered Slightly] Market quotes generally moved lower last Friday, with the SMM ADC12 price down 300 yuan/mt to 25,000 yuan/mt. Driven by the price pullback and weekend restocking demand, market trading sentiment recovered somewhat from the previous period, and downstream purchase willingness to buy the dip strengthened, improving transactions for some enterprises. However, overall demand still mainly reflected rigid demand, end-users remained sensitive to price fluctuations, and the pace of restocking stayed cautious. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. The pattern of demand being under pressure is unlikely to change in the short term; downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and coupled with the weak trend in primary aluminum weighing on market sentiment, prices struggled to rise. But with cost support, downside room is also limited. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the trend in primary aluminum and the pace of downstream consumption release.

According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises was 58.74% in February, down 14.13 percentage points MoM and down 11.54 percentage points YoY. February was affected by the Chinese New Year holiday. Leading enterprises maintained stable production and supply, with production showing strong resilience, basically sustaining “no holiday shutdowns” or only 0–3 days , and ensuring normal operations during the Chinese New Year period through shift rotations on production lines. Although orders saw slight fluctuations of 2%–10%, they remained overall under control. However, small and medium-sized enterprises performed poorly in February, dragging down the overall operating rate. Looking ahead to March, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises is expected to be 77.88%, up 19.14 percentage points MoM and down 7.35 percentage points YoY. The March production schedule of key air-conditioner enterprises fell 9.3% YoY from last year, in line with the YoY decline trend in copper pipe & tube operating rates. However, most copper pipe & tube enterprises said March production is expected to be better than expectations, and there are concerns over advance production and stockpiling. Worth noting is that R&D on high-performance alloy copper tubes by China’s leading enterprises will further reduce copper consumption in air conditioners, and most other enterprises are currently developing this type of technology as well. This has also increased orders for those domestic copper pipe & tube enterprises that already possess such technology, diluting the market share of other enterprises. In addition, the conflict in the Middle East reduced some home appliance export orders to the region, and the April production schedules of some domestic air-conditioner enterprises with relatively high market share exposure there are expected to decline.