The Indian Ministry of Steel reaffirmed in late April 2026 its goal to reach 300 million metric tons of crude steel capacity by 2030, rising from the current 168 million tons. Approximately 64% of this planned expansion relies on the coal-based blast furnace method, creating significant demand for metallurgical coal. To support this growth, India is diversifying its coking coal imports, with the U.S. share of imports increasing to 15% by 2025, reducing reliance on Australian supply which previously commanded 72% of the market.

Anglo American announced that its iron ore production from the Minas-Rio project in Brazil totaled 6.36 million tons in Q1 2026, marking a 10.3% year-on-year decrease. Additionally, its metallurgical coal production plummeted 30.9% to 1.54 million tons, primarily due to operational impacts following an incident in March 2025 and severe weather disruptions at the Dawson open-cut operations.

SMM News, April 30: According to SMM statistics, the total primary aluminum output overseas in April 2026 fell 10.2% year-on-year, while the average daily overseas output dropped 10.0% month-on-month, mainly as the impact of production cuts at Middle Eastern aluminum smelters became more evident. During the period, despite accelerated production resumptions at overseas primary aluminum smelters amid high prices, the overall incremental volume was far lower than the scale of production cuts in the Middle East, leading to a notable year-on-year and month-on-month decline in overseas primary aluminum output in April. Per Alcoa’s Q1 earnings report, the company announced on April 8, 2026 that the restart of its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain had been safely completed. According to Vedanta’s production report, its primary aluminum output in the 2026 fiscal year (Q2 2025 to Q1 2026) hit a record high of 2.456 million tons, up 1% year-on-year, mainly driven by improved operational efficiency. As per an official announcement from Century Aluminum, idle capacity at its Mt. Holly aluminum smelter in South Carolina has commenced restarting, with the first batch of primary aluminum production underway. It is expected that the resumed capacity will reach full operational status by the end of June, involving a total capacity of approximately 50,000 tons. In addition, the second production line at its primary aluminum smelter in Iceland has resumed production several months ahead of schedule. Staff are energizing the first batch of electrolytic cells for the second line and will accelerate the restart of remaining cells, targeting a near-full production level by the end of July. Looking ahead to May 2026, production resumptions at smelters in the US and Iceland, together with the ramp-up of new capacity in Indonesia, are expected to push average daily output higher month-on-month, though year-on-year output is projected to remain in sharp negative growth. Overall, given the unresolved situation in the Middle East, overseas primary aluminum output is expected to stay in sustained year-on-year negative growth in the short term. Market participants shall continue to monitor subsequent announcements from relevant aluminum smelters in the Middle East as well as global aluminum inventory trends.

Alcoa is evaluating the restart of a fourth aluminum production line at its Warrick facility in Indiana, which would require about USD 100 million and take one to two years. The plant currently operates three lines, and restarting the fourth could add around 50,000 tones of capacity. The company said the line is in poor condition and would require replacement of key electrical equipment with long lead times. Electricity availability in both the short and long term will be a key factor in the decision. The project remains under evaluation, with progress depending on cost, energy and operational feasibility.

Trade data for the first quarter of 2026 shows a 31% year-on-year decline in Russian coal exports to Turkey. This reduction is attributed to increased domestic Turkish production and a shift in trade defense policies that favor imports from other European and Australian suppliers. The decline in this critical corridor highlights the shifting trade routes for metallurgical coal as international markets react to geopolitical tensions and the ongoing war, which continues to keep commodity price volatility high.

Kazakhstan recorded a significant increase in coal transshipment volumes through Russian Baltic and Black Sea ports during the first quarter of 2026. This surge is driven by rising demand for metallurgical grades in Southeast Asian markets and the rerouting of flows following changes in regional rail logistics. While global coal prices have seen a general decline in Europe and Australia, the strengthening demand in developing Asia for Kazakh coal is providing crucial support for Central Asian mining infrastructure projects.