[SMM Analysis] Freight Rates Surge, Making Deals Difficult for Steel Expor ters Affected by the US-Iran conflict, tight energy supply and sharply higher fuel costs, compounded by exchange rate fluctuations, have continuously pushed up China's export offers in recent days. Compared with the beginning of the month (March 6), SMM HRC prices have been raised by $9/mt; galvanizing prices rose by $11/mt; CRC rose by $5/mt; billet rose by $6/mt; and rebar rose by $6/mt. However, looking back at market transaction performance, deals weakened again recently. According to the SMM survey, ocean freight rates surged sharply, with current freight to the Middle East as high as $50-60. Most outside China clients remained on the sidelines; shipowners also refused to commit tonnage while waiting for the market to stabilize. For China exporters, there were offers but no market, making shipments difficult. Meanwhile, market sources said Hadeed, the GCC's only flat steel producer, raised its May hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices, still related to shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. HRC cargoes previously booked from China and other origins were also being redirected to the west coast, mainly heading to Jeddah Port, bringing high inland transportation costs. As for global steel prices, in India, in addition to rising raw material costs and rupee depreciation, a sudden LNG energy shortage further pushed up production costs, forcing steel mills to maintain a strong willingness to hold prices firm despite the traditional domestic off-season and blocked exports. In the Southeast Asian market, price increases were accepted entirely passively, mainly due to the rigid pass-through of high ocean freight rates by overseas suppliers. Although Southeast Asian buyers hesitated to take orders, they had no choice but to passively accept the increases against the backdrop of persistently high geopolitical logistics costs. At the same time, CIS export offers also rose significantly, benefiting from the intensifying geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the resulting short-term global supply tightens. In the Middle East market, meanwhile, as war tensions continued to escalate, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz completely disrupted transportation, while freight rates and delivery uncertainty pushed the sheets & plates import markets in the UAE and Saudi Arabia into a complete standstill. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is excited to announce its media partnership with IRUNIVERSE for the highly anticipated 9th Battery Summit scheduled to take place in Tokyo on February 27, 2024.

This week, gold experienced significant volatility. The gold price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a weekly decline after seven consecutive weeks of gains, while the international gold price dropped from a historic high of $3,509.9 per ounce on Tuesday to around $3,300 currently. However, Ryan Mclntyre, managing partner at fund company Sprott, stated that investors should take advantage of this pullback to gradually build a gold position accounting for 10% of their portfolio, as gold still has substantial upside potential in the long term compared to the overvalued stock market. He pointed out that his fear of the US stock market far exceeds that of gold, and he expects US stocks to continue struggling as inflation remains high, forcing the US Fed to maintain a neutral policy. Eventually, companies will adjust their future earnings expectations to reflect the impact of high interest rates. He emphasized that over the next decade, gold's returns may not be worse than those of the US stock market, and its risk profile will be much better. The US dollar is beyond recovery, while gold remains worry-free. Mclntyre noted that the issues brewing in global financial markets have spread to the sovereign level, which will support gold in 2025. He believes that the problems faced by the previous generation were largely concentrated in simple corporate issues, but the current generation must deal with sovereign issues, especially those related to the US. Given that the US is the world's largest economy, the risks are much greater than before, and the only solution to such risks is physical gold. Previously, US President Trump's threats to impose hefty tariffs globally and his attempt to replace Fed Chairman Powell triggered extreme risk-off sentiment in the market, making gold the ultimate safe haven. Although Trump later softened his stance, in Mclntyre's view, the damage had already been done. He stressed that the US dollar will not lose its reserve currency status overnight, but its usage is declining. He believes countries will either hold more of their own currencies or some more independent currencies, such as gold. In his view, the 2011 gold price surge pushed gold to a historic high of $1,900 per ounce and sparked a mining boom, with consumers surrounded by overwhelming gold advertisements. However, current interest in gold has not reached that level of frenzy. This also means that gold prices have not yet peaked. Mclntyre stated that the market will only see a peak when people are convinced that gold cannot go wrong.

The 2nd Global Recycled Metal Industry Summit will be held at the Hyatt Regency Suvarnabhumi Airport Hotel in Bangkok, Thailand on June 12-13, 2025. This conference will bring together associations, leading enterprises, research institutions, industry experts, and policymakers from the global recycled metal sector to discuss new trends, technologies, and policies in the industry. It has attracted over 600 global industry leaders from more than 20 countries, 30+ world-class guest speakers, and 30+ premium exhibitors, jointly promoting resource sharing, collaborative innovation, and the global green economy transition! Limited booths remaining! Check out the latest booth map! Booth reservations are in high demand! Only 4 spots left for Class A printed booths and Class B standard booths! Book your booth now to enjoy the following benefits (limited to the first three): A one-month "SMM Recycled Metals" official account poster advertisement worth 3,500 yuan! Targeted followers! Vertical communities! We will enhance your corporate influence! Why are the booths so popular? 1. Full of benefits · Class A 3*3 printed booth You will receive the following benefits: 1. 3 conference tickets 2. Printing, display stands, and booth setup, showcasing products and technologies to create business opportunities 3. 1 reception table with logo, 1 round table, 4 chairs, and 1 TV · Class B 3*3 standard booth You will receive the following benefits: 1. 2 conference tickets 2. Lintel printing, display stands, and booth setup to attract attention and facilitate in-depth exchanges and negotiations 3. 1 reception table with logo, 1 round table, and 4 chairs 2. Market insights, unlimited opportunities 3. The necessity of purchasing a booth · Stay updated with industry trends: The recycled metal industry changes rapidly. A booth keeps you at the forefront of communication, enabling timely access to new policy, technology, and market trends, and planning your company's direction in advance. · Expand cooperation resources: Gather upstream and downstream enterprises of the global industry chain. A booth helps you attract potential partners, achieve cooperation, and realize business growth. ·Enhance brand visibility: Setting up a booth at the forum allows for a direct display of a company's strength and characteristics, effectively increasing brand awareness and influence. These companies will see your booth! · List of Participating Companies (Version 2) · The list is being continuously updated...

[SMM Hot Topic] Estimated “Cliff-Like” Drop in China’s Steel Exports—A Ramadan Pattern or a War Shock? As mentioned above, [Persian Gulf Shutdown? The Impact of the U.S.-Iran Conflict on Global Steel Trade] amid the US–Iran conflict, global steel trade was shaken and reshaped. Another topic that has recently been widely discussed in the market is: what impact will this war have on China’s total export volume? Before going into detail, it is important to remind everyone that the current focus has largely remained on geopolitical conflict, while often overlooking that this period coincides with Ramadan, a seasonal trough. Therefore, to quantify the war’s actual impact more accurately, SMM conducted corresponding “dehydration” adjustments based on ferrous panoramic shipping data. Most Direct Impact: A Deep Shortfall on the Shipping Side Data Source:SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping According to the table above, in the absence of war, during Ramadan 2025, China’s average weekly shipments to Gulf countries were about 327,000 mt, while the average weekly shipments in the month after Ramadan ended were 450,400 mt. Therefore, keeping average weekly shipments at around 300,000 mt during Ramadan is considered a “normal contraction” level. By further comparing the same-period data for 2026 and 2025, we can precisely calculate the quantified impact caused by the war. As of the latest date, in the first 20 days of Ramadan, China exported and shipped only 5,000 mt, with a weekly average of only 1,750 mt. Estimation logic: If there were no war, based on a neutral assessment using the 2025 Ramadan benchmark, total shipments in the first 20 days should have been about 930,000 mt; therefore, the war resulted in shipment losses of about 925,000 mt. Therefore, we can conclude that the more than 99% plunge on the shipping side was most likely caused by the war (route blockades, shipowners’ risk aversion), and the Ramadan factor is almost negligible in the face of such a massive decline. Delayed Effects on the Arrival Side Data Source: SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping In addition to the impact on the shipping side, SMM ’s ferrous panoramic shipping data also showed that after operations were suspended at multiple ports, a combination of factors—such as vessels being unable to berth and unload—led to a decline in the total volume of steel arriving at ports. As of the latest date, average weekly arrivals were about 220,200 mt, down by roughly 82,000 mt/week from 302,200 mt over the same period last year. Estimation logic: assuming no war impact and using a neutral assessment based on the 2025 Ramadan benchmark, cumulative arrivals in the first 20 days should have been about 863,400 mt, implying a cumulative shortfall of about 234,000 mt. Cause breakdown: it is expected that the decline on the arrivals side was not as pronounced as that on the shipments side, because among these 12 arriving vessels, most carried orders that had already been dispatched before the full outbreak of the war or in the early stage of the situation (Jan 25–Feb 25). Therefore, this 234,000 mt gap was mainly due to war-driven route detours (delays) and partial port shutdowns. Data Source: SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping In summary, based on the data, we can conclude that Ramadan was merely the “backdrop,” while the war was the “main cause.” If the impact were only from Ramadan, we should still have had about 300,000 mt of steel shipped to the Gulf each week. The reality, however, is that since Feb 18, our average weekly shipments have plunged to less than 2,000 mt. This means that, within the currently observed gap, shipment losses of more than 900,000 mt were entirely caused by war-related order stagnation or shipping lane disruptions. The 27% decline currently seen on the arrivals side is only the beginning; the real “vacuum period” will fully emerge in late March, during the latter part of Ramadan. At present, a phased contraction in China’s total steel exports to the Middle East has become a foregone conclusion. Does this mean the strong momentum of China’s full-year exports will come to a halt here? According to SMM steel export take-order data, last week, the total orders taken by 31 exporters were about 765,000 mt, up 20.76% MoM. Among them, export orders for long products were about 437,000 mt, up 56.07% MoM; export orders for sheets & plates were about 328,000 mt, down 7.21% MoM. Against the backdrop of rising export prices, this growth did not stem from a broad-based global economic recovery, but from forced shifts in trade flows driven by geopolitical conflicts. On the one hand, instability in Iran diverted Southeast Asian orders to China, driving a boom in steel billet exports; on the other hand, conflict in the Middle East pushed up shipping costs, and the surge in fuel prices directly caused physical disruptions along the trade chain. Even if there is overseas demand, the sharp rise in freight rates also weakened the pricing advantage of Chinese steel products. SMM Steel Export Orders Taken - 31 Companies (10kt) Data Source:SMM Weekly Steel Export Report Therefore, although the reduction in exports to the Middle East has already been confirmed by the data, assessing its impact on China’s total exports for the full year still needs to be based on a “global rebalancing” perspective: is the “gap” created after demand in Gulf countries is constrained being converted into “incremental volume” in other markets? What is the actual absorption capacity of these emerging incremental markets? Can they offset the monthly shipping loss of 900,000 mt from the Middle East? Please continue to follow SMM Steel Industry Research; we will regularly update global shipping developments… Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

[SMM Analysis] Holiday Stability in Overseas Prices, Divergent Trading Performance HRC prices in Thailand and Malaysia mostly held steady. As the holidays largely coincided with those in the domestic market and shipments were affected by the Chinese New Year, overall transaction activity remained relatively weak. The galvanizing market in Thailand performed moderately, but due to low-priced resources capturing market share, downstream shipments were somewhat impacted, leaving limited room for price increases. Influenced by factors such as Ramadan, HRC trading in Indonesia also trended toward mediocrity, while overseas export offers remained stable amid a wait-and-see stance. However, supported by government policies promoting increased use of domestically produced steel in the local shipbuilding industry, medium and long-term demand for sheets & plates in Indonesia is expected to remain relatively optimistic.The Black Sea market recently exhibited overall calm, with FOB offers for HRC exports pulling back slightly compared to pre-holiday levels. Although some routine transactions were concluded, overall market activity remained sluggish. Despite tight spot supply in the domestic Indian HRC market, it remains range-bound due to weak overall procurement demand, lacking momentum for price increases. Turkish HRC export offers have seen slight increases, following the price hike trend among European producers. European and US markets face strong policy and cost disruptions: although the US Supreme Court overturned some previously imposed tariffs by the president, the subsequent announcement of new global tariffs of up to 15% has sharply heightened market risk aversion. In European markets such as Italy, steel mills are leading ex-factory price increases against a backdrop of tight spot supply. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.