Overall, cost support remained strong, supply tightened while demand stayed stable. As tender prices became clear, aluminum fluoride prices were generally raised by around 800 yuan/mt in line with the guidance. Going forward, close attention should be paid to dynamic changes in raw material costs and adjustments in downstream procurement pace.

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coking coal costs for coke producers declined somewhat, and with the first round of coke price increases now fully implemented, losses at coke producers narrowed significantly, boosting production enthusiasm. Coke supply increased steadily, while downstream demand remained moderate, shipments were smooth, and producers' own inventory continued to decline. Demand side, steel mill blast furnaces gradually resumed production, and daily average hot metal production continued to increase, driving up rigid demand for coke. However, steel mills have recently seen good coke arrivals, with most mills' coke inventory at mid-range levels and overall procurement sentiment remaining average. In summary, coke market fundamentals have shifted toward looser supply and demand, and coupled with weaker recent cost support for coke, the coke market may remain temporarily stable in the short term, with further price increases facing greater difficulty.

Iron phosphate negotiations in April were deadlocked, with offers hitting 13,000 yuan/mt. The price surge appeared raw-material driven, but in fact reflected pricing power shifting upstream after a reversal in supply-demand fundamentals. Downstream buyers cited “cost increases” to push back, yet conveniently forgot the upstream losses quietly absorbed over the past three years. This was never about simple cost pass-through—it was a restructuring of profit distribution across the chain.

The Full End of the Philippines' Rainy Season, Coupled With the Fuel Emergency, May Put Downward Pressure on Nickel Ore Prices The Full End of the Philippines' Rainy Season, Coupled With the Fuel Emergency, May Put Downward Pressure on Nickel Ore Prices This week, Philippine nickel ore prices edged down. In terms of prices, Philippine nickel ore CIF China quotations were $64-67/wmt for Ni 1.3% grade, $71-74/wmt for Ni 1.4% grade, and $78-81/wmt for Ni 1.5% grade. The average CIF price from the Philippines to Indonesia was $65.5/wmt for 1.3% grade and $72.5/wmt for 1.4% grade. Weather side, weather conditions in the Philippines improved significantly this week WoW. Rainfall in major mining areas such as Surigao, Homonhon, and Tawi-Tawi trended lower, while Zambales and Palawan remained relatively dry. This shift indicated that major mining areas had gradually entered the mining season, releasing room for nickel ore supply. Demand side, despite elevated freight costs, several Chinese smelters had already started procurement. As of Friday, March 27, nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports stood at 4.63 million mt, down 190,000 mt WoW. Current total port inventory was equivalent to about 36,400 mt Ni in metal content. Demand side, domestic NPI prices were basically flat this week, while spot transaction prices fell by about 1,083.5 yuan per nickel unit. Smelters' acceptance of high-priced raw materials had peaked, which may prompt slight concessions in CIF prices, and nickel ore FOB and CIF prices are expected to be more likely to fall than rise in the short term. Indonesia Market: Delayed RKAB Approval Progress, Coupled With Expectations for Policy Transition, Is Expected to Further Lift the Price Center of Nickel Ore This week, prices of Indonesia's local nickel ore rose. Indonesia's nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) for the second half of March was set at $17,329/dmt, up 1.32% MoM. According to SMM's Indonesia nickel ore premium data, average premiums for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were quoted at $36, $40, and $40.5/wmt, respectively. Among them, the domestic-trade port-arrival price for 1.6% grade was $67.6-74.6/wmt. The simultaneous strengthening of both premiums this month reflected the release of smelters' restocking demand and pessimistic expectations over RKAB quota cuts, while the delivered price of 1.2% grade limonite ore also edged up in tandem to $25-27/wmt. From supply and demand fundamentals, as of March 27, 2026, weather conditions across Indonesia's nickel mining areas were as follows: Morowali was expected to see cumulative rainfall of 0.065-0.08 this week, and strong thunderstorms would severely affect open-pit mining and ore transportation; Konawe had scattered showers, with rainfall of about 0.03-0.045 this week; Halmahera was the most stable, mainly cloudy with light rain. The market is currently facing a clear trend of declining grades. Although some NPI smelters had begun accepting nickel ore with grades of 1.45% and below, saprolite ore remained tight in March. At present, as of mid-March, ESDM had approved about 100 million mt of RKAB nickel ore quotas, and the remaining 160 million-170 million mt is expected to complete approval before month-end. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr holiday from March 18 to 24, approval progress may be delayed, making it difficult for the tight supply situation to ease in the short term. Demand side, as some Indonesian smelters faced resource uncertainty and had difficulty obtaining high-grade nickel ore, prices remained strong. To secure raw material supply, some smelters even raised trading bonuses. In addition, some transactions of low-grade humic soil ore also emerged in the market, with fixed prices relatively lower than those of high-grade ore. Limonite ore prices remained at low levels, mainly due to the tailings dam landslide accident at an MHP project in a certain industrial park, which kept related production lines running at low operating rates and hindered the rebound in demand. However, considering RKAB uncertainty, stockpiling demand from new projects, and growing demand from outer islands, limonite ore prices are expected to stay high later by following saprolite ore. Policy side, although rumors about the implementation and delayed release of the new tax regime continued, the specific implementation rules were still under internal review by relevant ministries. Although execution details for specific products such as NPI and MHP still awaited finalisation across ministries, current policy signals may indicate that the era of tax-free exports for Indonesia's nickel intermediate products is about to come to an end. Looking ahead, Indonesia's continued policy tightening is expected to open upside room for nickel ore prices and have a profound impact on the cost structure of the global nickel supply chain.

As supply and demand for construction steel were not fully matched across different markets, regional supply-demand mismatches created price differentiation, which in turn drove the cross-regional circulation of steel resources. When the regional price spread gradient was appropriate, regions with surplus construction steel capacity and production often shipped excess resources out, thereby rebalancing construction steel resources across regions.