[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] News-Driven Disturbances Pushed SS Futures Higher to Test the Upside, Confidence in the Stainless Steel Spot Market Gradually Recovered SMM News, March 24: SS futures rose strongly. Affected by market fluctuations triggered by news of geopolitical conflict yesterday, SS futures rose sharply in the night session, and the daytime session maintained a fluctuating but relatively strong trend, closing at 14,290 yuan/mt by midday. In the spot market, boosted by the sharp rise in SS futures, market confidence somewhat recovered; although the increase in traders' spot quotations was limited, both inquiries and transactions showed signs of recovery during the week. The current market is heavily disturbed by news factors, and changes in the geopolitical conflict still need close attention. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and moved higher. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,305 yuan/mt, up 125 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 115-315 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt, while the average price in Foshan was unchanged; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotations were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were also unchanged. As the market entered the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April," although the stainless steel market ushered in a seasonal recovery window, end-use demand fell short of expectations, downstream wait-and-see sentiment gradually intensified, and the procurement side only maintained a restocking pace for rigid demand, with none of the transaction momentum typically seen in the peak season emerging. The market's view on stainless steel prices...

As supply and demand for construction steel were not fully matched across different markets, regional supply-demand mismatches created price differentiation, which in turn drove the cross-regional circulation of steel resources. When the regional price spread gradient was appropriate, regions with surplus construction steel capacity and production often shipped excess resources out, thereby rebalancing construction steel resources across regions.

[SMM Analysis:Rare Earth Ore Imports Surge in Early 2026, Exceeding Demand and Causing Surplus] According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to February 2026, China’s imports of mixed rare earth carbonate were about 3,013.7 mt, up 321% YoY. Over the same period, imports of unlisted rare earth oxides were about 12,860.4 mt, also posting a sharp increase of 209% YoY.

Dalian iron ore futures rose in early trading and pulled back in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 824 yuan/mt, up 0.55% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were relatively active in offering quotes, while steel mills made fewer inquiries and purchased cautiously, with overall transactions in the spot market remaining average. In terms of fundamental data, blast furnace maintenance intensity continued to pull back this week, with maintenance affecting hot metal production by 1.65 million mt, down 206,500 mt WoW. It was expected to decrease by a further 180,000 mt next week to 1.4684 million mt, indicating a gradual improvement on the demand side. In terms of supply, tight supply still persisted in the market, and there was no news of any significant adjustment, which remained supportive for iron ore in the short term. However, some funds, out of concern over downstream risks, tended to stay on the sidelines, and overall wait-and-see sentiment was strong. In summary, iron ore prices were expected to hover at highs in the short term.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,816/mt. After dipping to $11,798/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,395/mt, then hovered at highs, and finally closed at $12,221/mt, up 3.27%. Trading volume reached 52,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots, down 944 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,010 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center moved higher to a high of 95,900 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs. Near the close, it dipped to 94,530 yuan/mt and finally closed at 93,840 yuan/mt, up 2.12%. Trading volume reached 120,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 6,741 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions throughout the day.

[SMM Daily Review: High-Grade NPI May Still Have Downside Room Under the Dual Pressure of End-Users and Steel Scrap] March 24 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.88, up 0.01 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.59, down 0.04 MoM.