【SMM Analysis】Conflict and Shipping Disruptions Impact Mar–Apr 2026 Asian Aluminum Market

The overseas secondary aluminum market continues to exhibit structural divergence. Elevated scrap prices provide strong cost support, but cautious downstream procurement and weak transaction follow-through are dampening demand-side momentum. As a result, prices remain firm while trading activity stays subdued.【SMM Analysis】

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: The Most-Traded Aluminum Alloy Futures Contract Fell in Volatile Overnight Trading, Pre-Holiday Stockpiling Sentiment Remained Weak] On Monday, the SMM ADC12 price remained flat from the previous trading day at 24,100 yuan/mt. On the cost side, aluminum price fluctuations narrowed, providing limited price support.

[Stagflation Expectations Heat Up Combined with China Inventory Buildup, Divergence Between SHFE and LME Aluminum Continues] Overall, geopolitical risks outside China persisted and supply tightened, keeping LME aluminum prices on a relatively strong footing; high inventory levels in China combined with weak demand limited SHFE upside room, with a clear divergence between SHFE and LME price trends.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Easing Costs and Sluggish Demand Keep Aluminum Alloy Prices in the Doldrums] Last Friday, the ADC12 market was generally in the doldrums. As aluminum prices weakened, cost support eased, and some enterprises actively lowered their quoted prices.

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] The ADC12 aluminum alloy market was in the doldrums overall today. As aluminum prices weakened, cost support loosened somewhat. Meanwhile, downstream demand remained sluggish, pre-holiday stockpiling fell short of expectations, and trading was sluggish, further suppressing upward momentum. Combined with an increase in low-priced supplies in the market and intensified competition among enterprises, the price center shifted slightly downward. In the short term, under the dual impact of weakening cost support and insufficient demand, ADC12 prices are expected to continue a fluctuating trend in the doldrums.