From a supply-demand balance perspective, China's lithium carbonate market exhibited a tight balance in H1 2026, with sellers and buyers continuously seeking new equilibrium points amid bargaining.

Tightening supply policy in Indonesia, new import quotas and carbon costs in the EU, and tariff walls in the US pushed benchmark stainless steel prices higher across nearly every major market in the first half of 2026 — even as real demand stayed weak everywhere, turning global trade increasingly into a fight over market access rather than supply and demand.

On June 30, 2026, with the commissioning of the Huaneng Dezhou Xiaomiaozhuang 30 MW wind power project, the total installed capacity of wind and PV power in Shandong reached 130.56 million kW, and its share of the province’s total installed electricity capacity exceeded 50% for the first time in history, reaching 50.18%. This meant that wind and solar power, as new energy sources, officially became the mainstay of Shandong’s installed electricity capacity. Even more encouraging, if biomass and other new energy sources were included, Shandong’s installed new energy capacity had reached 135.51 million kW by the end of June, accounting for 52.09%; adding nuclear and hydropower, the province’s non-fossil energy installed capacity reached 145.3 million kW, with a share as high as 55.85%.

SMM July 2 News: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stated on Wednesday that US inflation upside risks have clearly cooled over the past four weeks, easing market concerns about aggressive rate hikes; he also indicated that no further forward guidance would be released on subsequent interest rate policy, refusing to disclose whether the US Fed needs to consider a rate hike at its next meeting; the US dollar weakened, and precious metals rebounded. As of around 16:09 on July 2, COMEX gold dropped 0.11% to $4,077.9/ounce; SHFE gold main contract rose 1.53% to 890.66 yuan/g; COMEX silver dropped 1.1% to $59.845/ounce; SHFE silver main contract rose 1.91% to 14,650 yuan/kg; silver T+D rose 2.95% to 14,551 yuan/kg. In the precious metals stock market, as of the close on July 2, the precious metals sector rose 4.21%, with individual stocks: Zhaojin Gold and Chifeng Gold hit their daily limit up, while Shanjin International, Xiaocheng Technology, Zhongjin Gold, and Western Gold led the gains. News [Warsh: Inflation Eases Over Past Four Weeks, AI Is Reshaping Economy, Forward Guidance Loses Necessity] On July 1, at the ECB's annual central bank forum in Sintra, Portugal, Warsh again clearly stated that the US Fed would not provide forward guidance on the future interest rate path , hoping that policymakers can engage in thorough discussions based on the latest data at each meeting, rather than previewing the policy direction to the market in advance. He said that US inflation risks had eased over the past four weeks, and the supply expansion brought by AI could profoundly change how the economy operates, with the US at the center of this transformation, but whether AI ultimately leads to inflation or deflation should be judged by the central bank based on data. Warsh said the US Fed is “charting a new path” and will no longer hint at the direction of interest rates in advance as it did in the past. He said: “We will hold our next meeting in four weeks, and I hope we can have a real family-style debate then.” He reiterated that forward guidance is not the right policy in the current economic situation, and the US Fed will continue to base its decisions on the latest economic data in the future, rather than committing to a policy path in advance. This means that the US Fed will rely more on real-time economic data rather than sending policy signals to the market in advance. Spot Market Silver In the spot market: On July 2, the reference average factory price of SMM 1# silver in the morning was 14,558 yuan/kg, up 3.35% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, overall offers remained firm early in the month, but transaction follow-through was slightly weak, and consumption performance fell short of expectations. As silver prices rebounded slightly, downstream wait-and-see sentiment intensified. In Shanghai, morning offers were mainly at TD+5 to +15 yuan/kg. Some smelters quoted on the high side, but actual buying interest was weak, with most deals clustered around TD+10 yuan/kg. In other regions, low-priced cargoes had basically been cleared, while offers in Shenzhen were mostly around TD+5-10 yuan/kg. Today, the market quoted premiums for the SHFE most-traded contract 2608 at a discount of 30 to 20 yuan/kg. Overall, a slight cooling in rate-hike expectations provided some support for precious metals prices. At the start of the month, the spot direction remained unclear. Maintenance at copper plants last month caused a slight disruption on the supply side, and offers generally maintained a slight premium structure. Views From Various Parties Regarding the outlook for precious metals, some institutions’ views are as follows: On July 1, the World Gold Council released the “2026 Mid-Year Outlook for the Global Gold Market.” Looking ahead to H2, gold’s valuation framework indicated that gold will continue to serve as a barometer of the global macro economy, with three main possible scenarios. From current levels, gold prices were broadly in line with market consensus: the market expected the US Fed to raise rates at least once in 2026, most likely in October; the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank were all set to tighten policy; and US Q2 inflation was expected to peak, near $3.9. If there were no major changes in the above environment, gold prices may trade around $4,100/oz within the year, with a fluctuation range of about ±5. If geopolitical or economic conditions deteriorate, or if interest-rate expectations shift, gold is expected to regain its upward momentum; however, only sufficiently strong signals of a global economic slowdown would be likely to drive a breakout to the upside. On the downside, a stronger US dollar, rate hikes exceeding expectations, and a rebound in market risk appetite were the main headwinds for gold prices; if gold prices remain below $4,000/oz, it may trigger further selling. However, based on historical performance, if gold prices fall by more than 10% from current levels, it may trigger “buy-the-dip” demand from long-term investors in multiple regions. State Street Investment Management said that, as the opportunity cost of holding gold and heightened volatility weighed on investor sentiment, bullish gold trades had been weak, and spot gold prices repeatedly tested the $4,000/oz support level. State Street believed that, although gold prices may be more volatile than in 2024-2025, the gold bull-cycle still has upside room, and the US Fed’s hawkish policy shift was expected not to change gold’s post-pandemic structural trend. State Street noted, “Since the US-Iran conflict, China’s retail gold imports have surged, and local premiums have risen in tandem, reflecting tightening fundamentals in China’s gold supply-demand balance.”State Street expects that over the next six to nine months gold prices could rise to the $4,750 to $5,500 per ounce range, with strong support in the $3,750 to $4,000 per ounce area. However, compared with the macro environment from January to February, the probability of gold prices reaching $5,500 to $6,250 per ounce is relatively small. (Zhitong Finance) State Street Investment Management strategists noted in a report that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by early 2027, as the gold bull cycle remains persistent. They believe that as U.S. government debt rises, gold's role as a currency hedge is expected to be supported, while actual demand for gold remains strong. Global gold fund holdings (as a share of global mutual fund and exchange-traded fund assets) currently remain below State Street's target allocation of 3% to 10% for most portfolios. Moreover, they added that a hawkish pivot by the Fed should not alter gold’s structural post-pandemic trend. State Street expects base bullion prices to rise to $4,750 to $5,500 per ounce in the next six to nine months. (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts at Saxo Bank said, "The market has not yet attracted enough buying interest to establish that level as a support level." They also pointed out, "Even though energy prices have pulled back recently, investors still expect the Fed may further tighten monetary policy to combat an inflation rebound, and as a result, gold prices fell 14% in Q2, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2013." (Jinshi Data APP) CICC's latest research report pointed out that gold may have already overpriced rate hike expectations. Fed rate hikes are still not the base case, and the gold market may have overly priced in rate hike expectations, leaving room for a pullback this year. CICC's macro team believes that employment and consumption pressures, along with the expanding financing needs of the U.S. AI economy, may make it difficult for the Fed to materially turn hawkish, and monetary policy may be "hawkish in words but dovish in action." Based on the implied interest rate expectations model from gold prices, it is estimated that the current gold price around $4,000 per ounce has fully priced in three to four rate hikes, exceeding the rate hike expectations priced in by the interest rate futures market. Looking ahead, after the decline in oil prices is further reflected in U.S. short-term inflation data, the gold market's pricing of rate hike expectations may be corrected, and futures market short-term funds may have opportunities to cover short positions. (Jinshi Data APP) Li Xunlei, Deputy Director of the China Chief Economist Forum, pointed out that gold's long-term trend exhibits long bear markets and short bull markets. Since 1971, 30 years have been bear markets and 25 years have been bull markets, but each bull market has seen gains of over fivefold. A bull market typically lasts around 10 years. This gold bull run has now lasted nearly 10 years, with prices tripling during that time, so caution is warranted at this stage. (Jin10 Data App) Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh said the bank has cut its Q3 gold price forecast by over 20% to $4,300/oz and lowered its Q4 forecast by 17% to $4,800/oz. "Potential investors who would normally provide support are notably absent," he said, pointing to weak demand for exchange-traded funds and reduced buying appetite in some countries. (Jin10 Data App) Macquarie said profit-taking weighed on silver prices last month, and price action is once again driven by macro factors amid rising expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. Similar to gold, silver prices are expected to move sideways for the rest of the year, then gradually decline into 2027, with inflationary pressures and the likelihood of further US Fed rate hikes limiting upside room. The higher inflation and bond yields, the greater the downward pressure. Silver, in particular, has been more susceptible to a pullback after outperforming gold, driven by bullish sentiment fueled by supply tightens, low inventory, and strong demand. Historically, silver pullbacks tend to be rapid. Macquarie expects silver to trade at $70/oz in Q4 this year and pull back to $65/oz by the end of 2027. (Jin10 Data APP) Recommended reads:

New country-by-country quotas reward South Korea's balanced access and Indonesia's hot-rolled position, while Taiwan, China, Vietnam and Turkey face a tighter squeeze once melt-and-pour disclosure rules bite from October 1.

On July 1, the stock price of Xingye Silver&Tin rose. As of the close on July 1, Xingye Silver&Tin gained 0.24% to 33.04 yuan per share. In terms of news: On June 30, Xingye Silver&Tin announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) Mining Co., Ltd., through its subsidiary, Atlantic Tin Pte. Ltd., currently holds 3,180,525 shares (75% equity) of Atlas Tin SAS (hereinafter referred to as the “Target Company”), making it the controlling shareholder of the Target Company. To fully control the project resources and rights, maximize the release of value from the tin ore assets, and enhance core competitiveness and sustainable operations, the company intends to acquire, through a newly established subsidiary outside China (not yet established, subject to final registration of equity transfer), the aggregate 1,060,175 shares (the remaining 25% equity) of the Target Company held by Toyota Tsusho Corporation and Nittetsu Mining Co., Ltd. (collectively, the “Counterparties”). As the new overseas subsidiary has not yet been incorporated, the company and its wholly-owned subsidiary Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) will first sign a Share Purchase Agreement with the Counterparties, which stipulates that the acquisition will be completed by an entity designated by the acquirer. On June 30, 2026, the company and Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) completed the signing of the Share Purchase Agreement with the Counterparties. Upon completion of this transaction, the company will indirectly hold 100% equity of the Target Company through its subsidiaries, achieving full ownership. Details of the acquisition are as follows: 1. The company will designate a newly established overseas subsidiary (not yet established, subject to final registration of equity transfer) as the transferee to acquire 848,139 shares (20% equity) of the Target Company held by Toyota Tsusho Corporation for a consideration of $15,300,000, funded by its own funds or self-raised funds. 2. Xingye Gold (Hong Kong), a wholly-owned subsidiary, will designate a newly established overseas subsidiary (not yet established, subject to final registration) as the transferee to acquire 212,036 shares (5% equity) of the Target Company held by Nittetsu Mining Co., Ltd. for a consideration of $7,813,570, funded by its own funds or self-raised funds. These two transactions together will acquire a total of 1,060,175 shares, representing 25% equity of the Target Company, for an aggregate consideration of $23,113,570. The transaction is accompanied by the signing of a Termination and Release Agreement, which will fully terminate the original Shareholders' Agreement of the Target Company upon completion of the closing, clarifying the historical rights and obligations of all parties. Regarding the mining rights of the transaction target, Xingye Silver&Tin introduced that the Target Company holds the Achmmach tin mine project, with the following details: 1. Basic Information of Mining Rights 2. Achmmach Tin Ore Resources In May 2026, Beijing SRK Resource Technology Co., Ltd. prepared the “Morocco Achmmach Project Competent Person's Report” in accordance with the JORC Code. As of December 31, 2025, with an underground mining tin cut-off grade of 0.27%, the mineral resources of the Achmmach project are as follows: The acquisition of all remaining equity held by the Japanese shareholder aims to achieve full ownership of the target company, terminate the original shareholder agreement, streamline the governance structure and enhance decision-making efficiency, secure full control of project resource rights and interests, maximize the release of value from the tin ore assets, strengthen synergy between operations in and outside China, and align with the company's global resource deployment strategy. Xingye Silver&Tin also outlined the impact of this transaction on the company: the target company has been included in the consolidated financial statements, and this acquisition of minority equity will not have a material impact on the company's current-period profit. In the future, all net profit of the target company will be attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm, continuously enhancing earnings attributable to parent company shareholders. The company has ample liquidity reserves, and there is no obstacle to paying the transaction consideration, which will not have a material adverse impact on the liquidity of daily operating funds. Following full ownership, the company can coordinate and advance mine construction and operations, leverage its mining development and management experience, accelerate project implementation, solidify tin resource reserves, and have a positive effect on the company's long-term operating performance. On June 26, Xingye Silver&Tin stated on an interactive platform while responding to investor inquiries that secondary market stock prices are affected by multiple factors such as the macro environment, industry cycles, and market sentiment. The company attaches great importance to secondary market performance, will continue to strengthen investor relations management and market communication, actively carry out information dissemination and market capitalization management, and earnestly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of all shareholders. On June 26, Xingye Silver&Tin stated on an interactive platform while responding to investor inquiries that, in accordance with the JORC Code, the Competent Person SRK uses only the current Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources as the basis for ore reserve conversion and production scheduling. However, in actual operations, through ongoing production drilling and exploration activities, the company may upgrade a portion of Inferred Mineral Resources and subsequently incorporate them into the actual mine mining and processing plan. Furthermore, the stope shapes generated by SRK using Deswik software through stope optimization may not align with the stope layout adopted in the company's daily production planning. Therefore, the company's future actual production schedule and operational performance may differ from the production schedule and related forecasts presented by SRK. On the performance front: Xingye Silver&Tin disclosed in its Q1 report that from January to March 2026, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB2,129.8691 million, up 85.32% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB1,337.6722 million, up 257.32% YoY. As of March 31, 2026, the company's total assets amounted to RMB19,688.8316 million, and net assets attributable to shareholders of the listed company were RMB10,825.4666 million. Operating Revenue Composition: For January to March 2026, the operating revenue of the company's main mineral products as a share of total operating revenue was as follows: ore-derived silver revenue was RMB1,410.1104 million (66.21%), ore-derived tin revenue was RMB234.0354 million (10.99%), ore-derived zinc revenue was RMB228.1249 million (10.71%), ore-derived lead revenue was RMB71.8509 million (3.37%), ore-derived antimony revenue was RMB53.1029 million (2.49%), ore-derived gold revenue was RMB51.0181 million (2.40%), ore-derived iron revenue was RMB44.1733 million (2.07%), ore-derived copper revenue was RMB35.6489 million (1.67%), and ore-derived indium revenue was RMB0.5241 million (0.02%). Among these, the combined operating revenue share of ore-derived tin and ore-derived silver reached 77.19%. Xingye Silver&Tin's Q1 report announcement stated: operating profit for the current period increased 238.16% YoY, total profit increased 236.36% YoY, and net profit attributable to owners of the parent company increased 257.32% YoY. The main reasons: During the reporting period, the selling prices of the company's main mineral products such as silver and tin rose compared with the same period last year; Yubang Mining's capacity was gradually released, leading to significant YoY increases in ore-derived silver production and sales volume; and the disposal of a 60% stake in Shuangyuan Nonferrous generated investment income of RMB321 million. Xingye Silver&Tin's 2025 annual report shows that in 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB5,555.2536 million, up 30.09% YoY; total profit of RMB2,096.2370 million, up 18.75% YoY; and net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of RMB1,704.2393 million, up 11.40% YoY. Xingye Silver&Tin’s announcement shows: In 2025, the operating revenue of the company's main mineral products as a share of total operating revenue was as follows: ore-derived silver revenue was RMB2,175.7825 million (39.17%), ore-derived tin revenue was RMB1,649.6398 million (29.70%), ore-derived zinc revenue was RMB975.8673 million (17.57%), ore-derived lead revenue was RMB220.9450 million (3.98%), ore-derived iron revenue was RMB180.3799 million (3.25%), ore-derived copper revenue was RMB133.0043 million (2.39%), ore-derived antimony revenue was RMB100.3568 million (1.81%), ore-derived gold revenue was RMB82.3402 million (1.48%), and ore-derived bismuth revenue was RMB16.6744 million (0.30%). Among these, the combined operating revenue share of ore-derived tin and ore-derived silver reached 68.86%. Regarding the company's main business and key performance drivers, Xingye Silver&Tin stated in its 2025 annual report: The company is a large mining group principally engaged in the exploration, mining, and beneficiation of non-ferrous and precious metals. As of the disclosure date of this report, the company has over 20 subsidiaries, including 8 mining companies in operation: Yinman Mining, Qianjinda Mining, Yubang Mining, Rongguan Mining, Xilin Mining, Rongbang Mining, Ruineng Mining, and Bosheng Mining. The Achmmach tin mine under Atlas Tin SAS, a subsidiary of Atlantic Tin, is in the construction phase; Tanghe Shidai Mining is in suspension, while Yitong Mining and Yunnan Xigui are in the exploration phase. Hainan Fund is primarily engaged in equity investment management; Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) is mainly engaged in metals and mining trade and corporate M&A, responsible for expanding into markets outside China and acquiring high-quality overseas mineral resources; Hainan International Trade and Tianjin International Trade are primarily engaged in non-ferrous metal ore product sales and some raw material procurement; Xingye Ruijin primarily undertakes process research, technology R&D, and upgrading in areas such as prospecting, mining and beneficiation, and comprehensive tailings recycling. Tibet Shannan Antimony Gold, Tibet Xinda Mining, and Xing'an League Fuxingtun Mining serve as the company's regional resource integration platforms. During the reporting period, the company successfully acquired an 85% stake in Yubang Mining. According to statistics from the Silver Institute as of the end of 2023, Yubang Mining's single silver mine ranks first in Asia and fifth globally. This acquisition further strengthened the company's resource advantages and laid a solid resource foundation for its sustainable development. At the same time, using its subsidiary Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) as the investment vehicle, the company intensified investments in mineral resources outside China and successfully acquired a 100% stake in Atlantic Tin, a key move in executing its "going global" strategy. Based on the large-scale tin mine classification standard in the "Classification Standard for Resource/Reserve Scale of Mineral Resources" (DZ/T 0400-2022), the Achmmach tin mine owned by Atlantic Tin is now equivalent to five large deposits. Through this consolidation of overseas tin ore resources, the company has further refined its international tin layout and reserved vital strategic resources for long-term development. The company's main performance is derived from its non-ferrous metal mining and beneficiation business. During the reporting period, revenue from this segment accounted for 99.64% of total 2025 operating revenue. The main factors influencing the operating performance of the mining and beneficiation segment include the production and sales volume of major products, market prices, and the costs of the non-ferrous and precious metal mining and beneficiation business. Regarding its operating plan, Xingye Silver&Tin stated in its 2025 annual report: 2026 is the final year of the company's "Second Three-Year" Plan. The board will closely focus on the theme of high-quality development, fully implement established work objectives, continuously deepen the concept of "trust and collaboration," and make an all-out push toward the plan's concluding goals, with a focus on the following: 1. Uphold the bottom lines of safety and environmental protection, using the 2026 "Year of Implementing Safety Management" as a lever to fully enforce safety responsibilities, consolidate the achievements of the "Year of Collective Safety Calm," and enhance risk anticipation and process control to resolutely prevent all types of safety and environmental accidents, achieving safe, stable, and green-low carbon development. 2. Vigorously advance key project construction, strengthen whole-process management of project budgets, schedules, and quality, and coordinate the implementation of projects including the 2.97 million mt capacity upgrade and expansion at Yinman Mining, the 8.25 million mt capacity upgrade and expansion at Yubang Mining, the Morocco project, and the Budun Yingen Mining (trusteeship) project, ensuring they are completed and reach full production on schedule to release capacity benefits. 3. Continue to intensify exploration and resource increase efforts, balance the relationship between production operations and geological exploration, steadily advance exploration at existing mines and surrounding areas, accelerate resource-to-reserve conversion and upgrades, and continuously strengthen the resource foundation. 4. Deepen industrial synergy and resource integration, leverage the core regional advantages of Inner Mongolia, steadily expand overseas resource deployment; adhere to silver and tin as the main business direction, enriching and optimizing the resource portfolio. Solidly advance the subsequent acquisition and integration of Weiling Shares, actively track high-quality mineral project opportunities in and outside China, and enhance overall competitiveness through industrial synergy-driven M&A. 5. Further strengthen institutional enforcement and internal control management, ensure that all systems, processes, and control requirements are effectively implemented, and elevate the company's refined management level; reinforce enforcement capacity to guarantee that production plans, comprehensive budgets, and all work deployments are fully executed, and promote deep integration of corporate culture and operational management. 6. Push forward preparations for a Hong Kong listing at full speed, accelerate the establishment of dual capital market platforms in and outside China, enhance cross-border capital operation capabilities, provide stronger financial support for resource integration and strategy execution, and propel the company's high-quality sustainable development to a new level. A Guosen Securities research report dated April 24 showed: The company's production of major mineral species has steadily increased in recent years. In 2025, growth was driven by both higher silver prices and volumes, while the surge in tin prices offset the impact on production volume. Externally-driven M&A achieved notable results, lifting silver and tin resource reserves to a new level. In 2025, the company completed two major strategic acquisitions. 1) Acquisition of an 85% stake in Yubang Mining: The company acquired the 85% stake for RMB2.388 billion in January 2025. Yubang Mining is the largest single silver mine in Asia and the fifth largest globally. This acquisition increased the company's silver metal resources to 29,800 mt, significantly elevating its industry standing. 2) Acquisition of a 100% stake in Atlantic Tin: The company completed the acquisition in August 2025, gaining its Achmmach tin mine in Morocco. The mine holds tin metal resources of 213,300 mt, equivalent to five large tin deposits, boosting the company's total tin metal resources to 391,600 mt. Risk warnings: risks that the company's resource development progress falls short of expectations; risk of wild swings in metal prices.